Posted: 9/27/2012 8:34:57 PM
full disclosure: some of you may think this garbage is a walk in the park but personally I see this race as extremely difficult. going with a half unit play in 0.25/0.25/0.50 fashion. full field down the Arcadia hill and almost all of them have appealing features so to me that is higher risk. it's opening day and i love SA and i love the hill so I am staking a swing. this is obviously before the scratches but I expect twelve to run with the 1 scratching to spare the embarrassment of being 200/1 on the tote.
G3 Eddie D 3YO and Up About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Downhill Turf)
6/1 ml. full field so maybe anywhere from 5/1 to 10/1. late speed, pace, distance, and stamina provide a playable potential edge for me. pattern and trainer are also interesting. note i use the word "potential" because despite how some in here act there is this little nuisance called "variance" in horse racing.
Question marks - he's a 6YO now (but did fire big off the pine at the beach). the race is 4 weeks off his comeback and typically he has gotten a little bit more time between starts. and of course the biggest issue is how competitive this race is with a big, full field.
Late Speed - at this distance this guy has shown a pretty strong late move down the lane that stacks up quite well versus the others in here. i expect a substantial amount of early zip giving someone the chance to nail them down the lane. this guy can sit a bit off the pace and put in a strong move. as a 3YO turning 4YO he come off a route race and moved home strongly going down the hill (95 beyer). he comes off a route race here where he sat just off solid clips and maintained his speed the full distance of a mile and a sixteenth. he should be able to sit pretty close to the leaders and show late speed that is quite competitive in here.
Pace - this should be a sizzler down the hill. the problem is some of the early zip horses actually can keep it going so I don't think they completely fold up late. this leads me towards a horse that can sit in the "stalk and pounce" position. this horse has sat in this position numerous times but what I like the most is the pace he has shown for the entire race in races at 8F and 8.5F. if he fires (emphasis on IF in this game) he has the skills to run at his comfortable pace and be in a good position when he needs to gun it for the wire. i like that here. i'm not sure anyone can come from the clouds in this race and gun down the entire field because the pace is not "cheap" in my view.
Distance and Stamina - you can see in the PPs pretty solid efforts going 8F, 8.5F and the *about* 6.5F down the hill. i like that he has run just as well around two turn as he has down the hill. to me that helps him handle this distance and show very strong stamina down the lane.
Pattern and Trainer - 2nd off the bench. going route to sprint down the hill worked before. horse is 7/9 lifetime in the exacta and fires every time. confident move into a G3 and possible prep for the BC. i like the easy and slow drills off that return in the 8.5F race down at the beach. three manintenance drills. (like I said though coming back a little quicker than usual could be an issue and also could be that he's doing real good). Gaines is 24% 2nd off over 180, 25% going route/sprint, 17% on the green, and 16% in graded stakes.
add it all up maybe he gives it a good run at a solid price. very, very tough race should be very exciting. i am willing to fade the 3, 4, 5, 6, and 13 and all will get bet. hopefully they leave this old man above 6/1 certainly it's possible in a thirteen horse field. risking a half unit so we'll see.