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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Miami -2.5 biggest trap or biggest gift?
tonyrome send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 5/23/2012 10:59:31 AM
This looks SO good to grab now, feel free to tell me what I am missing.
I personally do not believe the NBA on a whole is fixed, so please try to keep that out of your answer.
I expected to see Miami -5.5 - 6.5.
Thanks in advance!
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#2
Posted: 5/23/2012 11:02:11 AM
I love it. They are expectting Haslam and Pittman to be suspended. Leaving the Heat 3 guys short.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#3
Posted: 5/23/2012 11:42:58 AM
dam my book went to -3.5 in an hour !! 
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iluvmyJs
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#4
Posted: 5/23/2012 11:55:16 AM
This series ends here unfortunately. After being blown out twice and now granger and dwest being banged up I dont see any reason why the heat can't close this one. A starless team with no morale is going down big time! 
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#5
Posted: 5/23/2012 11:56:54 AM
I think the Heat will win the series, but I have a funny feeling the Pacers take game 6 at home.
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#6
Posted: 5/23/2012 3:32:11 PM

I don't get this line.   Books know they'll get flooded with Heat backers.  They could've started at Heat -3.5 or -4 and still gotten overwhelming Heat $$$$.

I think this is a trap line (and yes, after speaking w/ a bookie personally, I believe in trap lines). 

 

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#7
Posted: 5/23/2012 3:40:46 PM

Don't overthink it. Just lay it. The Pacers are done. I have no idea how this garbage team won two games in this series. Their offense is just horrendous to watch. They have no movement at all. Everyone stands around as one guy dribbles around at the top of the key until there's seven seconds or so left on the shot clock and then whoever gets the pass throws up a brick.

Larry Bird was absolutely right in what he said.

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              Antilles
#8
Posted: 5/24/2012 1:45:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ron88:

Don't overthink it. Just lay it. The Pacers are done. I have no idea how this garbage team won two games in this series. Their offense is just horrendous to watch. They have no movement at all. Everyone stands around as one guy dribbles around at the top of the key until there's seven seconds or so left on the shot clock and then whoever gets the pass throws up a brick.

Larry Bird was absolutely right in what he said.


Mostly agree with what you said except im not surprised they won two games.  they shown flashes of being a team thats capable of playing quality ball.  That team is most definitely a year or two from hitting its prime.  Bird should be happy for making this far and winning two off the heat.  From here on out its house money for the Pacers who could easily win game 6 or lose by 25 again.
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#9
Posted: 5/24/2012 1:47:53 AM
OP, can you explain why you expected to see books open Miami -5.5 or -6.5? 
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#10
Posted: 5/24/2012 1:50:30 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Donnie_Baseball:

OP, can you explain why you expected to see books open Miami -5.5 or -6.5? 

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#11
Posted: 5/24/2012 1:53:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Donnie_Baseball:

OP, can you explain why you expected to see books open Miami -5.5 or -6.5? 


ya would like to know as well

books so far do not seem to be changing lines too much from game to game even after blowouts

most recent example is -5.5 bos like earlier home game, or lakers +7.5 game 5 like game 1 line iirc
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#12
Posted: 5/24/2012 2:54:11 AM
After spending few hours studying these matchup I found that this year these teams were playing at Indiana 4 times. 02/14/12 Miami was favored by 2 (and covered by 13), then 03/26/12 by 3.5 (and failed by 18.5), and then in playoffs 05/17/12 by 2 (and failed by 21) and 05/20/12 by 2 again (and covered by 6).
These deep research leads me to simple conclussions:
- this line is where it should be as it was set like that 3 of 4 times and very close to that the other time
- it has no hidden message, it is just that: a line that is right for this matchup.

What is your projected line anyways, OP?
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#13
Posted: 5/24/2012 5:49:02 AM
heat is -8 at home. less 4 points for heat playing on the road, then add 4 points for indy playing at home. it should be pick em for me. 

the line at -3 might be begging for indiana money. 
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#14
Posted: 5/24/2012 5:52:06 AM
miami -5.5 would just be stupid. indy should be favored by atleast 2 points here
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#15
Posted: 5/24/2012 5:56:56 AM
2 blow-out wins---MIA is a BIG SUCKER BET!!!!!!! 10 FAVORITES out of last 11----GO PACERS!!!!
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#16
Posted: 5/24/2012 7:39:01 AM
Is anyone taking note that Miami shot around 36.5% in the first few games? Even in the game 1 win they shot 40%. Miami is a way better scoring team that. What I saw in the first three games was a Miami slump.

Heat without Bosh and Haslem is not good, but Pacers without Granger and a beat up West is bad.

You can't say "I was surprised to see the Miami Heat beat the Pacers?!" when this is over. You could say the opposite if the pacers won.
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#17
Posted: 5/24/2012 7:49:21 AM
No disrespect to anyone but Haslem has been pretty important the last 2 games by hitting his jumpers the big men have actually had to guard him and by doing that opening it up more for James and Wade. I think he matters. I know Granger and West are playing but I'd love to know how effective they'll be.
I wouldn't be shocked if Miami wins and I wouldn't be shocked if Ind wins either. I expect a close game and will take the points.  
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#18
Posted: 5/24/2012 8:56:54 AM
the short line is not really a mystery. 

the underdog money line should be viewed as the amount of risk vegas is willing to extend. They put out huge moneylines when there is almost no chance they hit, small moneylines when there is a good chance of hitting.

Obviously the public takes sides, & the public will be backing miami here, & vegas could take a hit on this game. there is not much vegas can do when most bettors favor 1 side. 

We all see the uneven action, even on huge lines in games. So dispense of the myth that a big line is intended to draw equal action.

ultimately, vegas sees a small but measurable chance indiana wins the game, so they do not want to go out on a limb & put a huge moneyline on them. 



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#19
Posted: 5/24/2012 9:00:06 AM

MIA ML for me

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#20
Posted: 5/24/2012 1:58:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AverageAllstar:

Is anyone taking note that Miami shot around 36.5% in the first few games? Even in the game 1 win they shot 40%. Miami is a way better scoring team that. What I saw in the first three games was a Miami slump.

Heat without Bosh and Haslem is not good 

They need these guys to space the floor. The Pacers have a solid defensive game plan that they have for the most part executed. Pacers or no play for me here, I like the under though.
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#21
Posted: 5/24/2012 2:13:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Donnie_Baseball:


They need these guys to space the floor. The Pacers have a solid defensive game plan that they have for the most part executed. Pacers or no play for me here, I like the under though.


Selective reading I see. 

You did hear about Granger playing with a sprained ankle right? You left that part out of my quote. He'll be playing against the greatest player in the NBA. Are you seeing all of the game issues or what you want to see?

Heat can afford to lose the boards battle by 8 and still win this game.

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#22
Posted: 5/24/2012 2:20:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AverageAllstar:



Selective reading I see. 

You did hear about Granger playing with a sprained ankle right? You left that part out of my quote. He'll be playing against the greatest player in the NBA. Are you seeing all of the game issues or what you want to see?

Heat can afford to lose the boards battle by 8 and still win this game.



somewhat interesting is the team that has won the boards battle has won each and every game in this series thus far


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#23
Posted: 5/24/2012 2:43:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pepsi562:



somewhat interesting is the team that has won the boards battle has won each and every game in this series thus far




Because the heat shot >40% in those games.

The middle will be a blow to the heat, no question imo. But the biggest punch tonight is James against a hobbling Granger or a second option. This will be the deciding factor tonight.
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#24
Posted: 5/24/2012 3:35:46 PM
Thanks for all the feedback, please note I did not have info on Haslem before I posted. I do believe that (could) be significant.
This is now a small or no play for me with Haslem out.


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#25
Posted: 5/24/2012 3:37:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AverageAllstar:



Selective reading I see. 

You did hear about Granger playing with a sprained ankle right? You left that part out of my quote. He'll be playing against the greatest player in the NBA. Are you seeing all of the game issues or what you want to see?

Heat can afford to lose the boards battle by 8 and still win this game.



i dont see Durant, Westbrook, Duncan or Parker playing against the Pacers---.....so... who is the best NBA player ur mentioning..Miami is full of garbage, Primadonnas, chokers and crybabies
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