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Author: [Boxing] Topic: Carl Froch vs Lucian Bute (Any info on Total Rounds?)
ZOUK send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
ZOUK
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#1
Posted: 3/11/2012 9:51:25 PM
Currently I find nothing but props and the straight line. My feeling is they might set it around 10 rounds, and they rarely have full rounds so they always add the half round. So what that in mind, 10.5 rounds as they consider this is going to the scorecards. Also, it might be (Over -160) 10.5 Rounds (Under +120). Also, for those unaware, they add the half round so they won't get a push (tie, draw, etc...). They are getting 40 cent juice on a one set or +100 EV... the standard is usually the two set unit such as high end -290 or +250. With such a vig they don't want win or lose... not a tie option.
I'm setting what I think they will do 10.5 (maybe 9.5) Rounds with it a bit heavy on the Over ( or either 90 seconds to the scorecards or 270 seconds to the scorecards).
Anyone please update or correct these odds if they find anything posted. Currently I'm setting mine
Froch vs Bute Total Rounds 10.5 (Over -160 or Under +120) OR
Froch vs Bute Total Rounds 9.5 (Over -220 or Under +150)
Who knows, maybe its 6 rounds... LOL!

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cd2010
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#2
Posted: 3/13/2012 8:18:32 PM
I'm sure it will be around 10.5 or 11.5, Froch has went 12 rounds in his last 7 fights, after going up into the world class level, Bute went 12 with Glen Johnson, they have already talked about a rematch in Canada. What better way to have a rematch than a questionable decision? The only thing is not in your favor is the lefty-righty match-up and the possibility of a cut or clash of heads. As long as the juice isn't too bad, I like the over. Zouk, What do you like the over or under?
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#3
Posted: 3/13/2012 10:54:03 PM
Over, with max -150. Bute will have a lot of movement with Froch as the aggressor. Both don't have have a cut or swelling issue which is good. Bute being that favored is too high. If decisions weren't so shady, Froch to win could be a play, but it's a fight with to many unknown variables. I will go through them my next post.
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rzagza
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#4
Posted: 3/14/2012 2:25:48 AM
The juice will be immense to the over.  I'm guessing +10.5 will be -360 and 11.5 will be -320.  -150? No chance.  
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#5
Posted: 3/14/2012 6:22:35 PM
rzagza: Why I normally would agree with your assessment, I feel they are going to want major action both ways on the total with a mega-juice.
I think you are correct in your analysis, it's just that when making odds, they have (alternative motive... MONEY) besides making a truly accurate line. When using a very high vig, they get action and it also forces people into betting mode. That's why casino's give free plays... get someone started, and they feel the need to go on.
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#6
Posted: 3/14/2012 6:38:35 PM
When I stated Bute being to high of a favorite, I was multi-posting and though he was -350. My bad. I think him being a small favorite is fair considering.
This will be interesting as Bute has not faced a caliber of Froch, and unlike Froch's trouble will fast fighters, Bute is more predictable, and an experienced Froch will be able to anticipate and throw some curve-balls.
Knowing that both guys will fight (even Bute with movement, not running)... many things can happen knowing you have 2 aggressive fighters. They will hit each other, and although neither has been prone to cuts or swelling, Bute hasn't been hit very much so we aren't sure about his status on that. Also, accidents, freakish KO's, etc, happen when you get two strong aggressive fighters, especially when Froch's style against Bute's style brings many unknowns.
So, with all that, how many times (odds) do I see this going to the cards. Around 3-1 to 4-1, 75% to 80%.  They will go on the lowest side 2 out of 3 times. 65-35,  roughly 2-1, and that is a full twelve, not 10.5 or 11.5. Also, with such juice it will be a 40 to 50 cent juice per increment.
My assessment would say -200 to go a full 12 or +150 to go under, and many more people that are Bute fans will go will under.
I stated I wouldn't lay much more than -150 depending on the round set. I might lay -180, but that is a stretch for me. Better else served finding a nice big fat DOGGY!
Add in to the equation 1 or 2 rounds... and you get what I first posted...
Froch vs Bute Total Rounds 10.5 (Over -160 or Under +120) OR
Froch vs Bute Total Rounds 9.5 (Over -220 or Under +150).


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#7
Posted: 3/15/2012 5:24:29 PM
rzagza: Total I found is 10 Rounds (Over -250 or Under +175) at Ladbrokes.I was close at -220. Not sure what other books will do. GL!
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#8
Posted: 3/16/2012 8:00:50 PM
Any other lines out on this total???
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