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Author: [Boxing] Topic: Some picks......
DannoDanger
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#26
Posted: 2/26/2012 1:19:59 PM

Thanks.  Looked like Alexander could've stopped him if he made that his focus.  Either way, he's another class of boxer than Maidana. 

Down ~2.03 now in here.  Love Klitchscko/Mormeck under next week.  Had that last time before the fight got postponed.  I know the Klits are cautious, but Mormeck's jaw is total glass.  First punch from Wlad, and he's out of there.

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DannoDanger
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#27
Posted: 3/2/2012 8:09:59 PM

FNF 3/2/12:

I don't think it's any kind of lock that Paredes is going to KO Leyva.  He's been on a little KO run recently, but against garbage.  Think this one can go the distance and the odds are too good to pass up, IMO.

Paredes/Leyva over 8.5 rds (+210 @ 5dimes) - risking ~.65 to win ~1.35.

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DannoDanger
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#28
Posted: 3/2/2012 10:01:03 PM

Eh....almost got there.  Didn't think the ref needed to stop that there, but I understand why he did. 

Down ~2.68 now.

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#29
Posted: 3/2/2012 11:16:13 PM
DannoDanger: I'm not a huge fan of overs because as you've noticed we have some strange DQ's, (accidental or intentional) headbutts, low blows, elbows, etc... even odd swelling, all making the bout stop to a halt. Similar to under betting in NCAA(FB) with the new OT rules. I remember the first year(or first few years) losing before they modified the rules. It was like 17-17 and the over was 65, I went to bet chalking up my under bet winner, only to see I lost and was like WTF???!!!

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#30
Posted: 3/2/2012 11:16:29 PM
continued...
A common play I often do around mid-to-late season as the linesmakers become more accurate (also a good time for middles as the linesmakers get better with more info and privy info), and I take a PK to 3 point spread (.5,1,1.5, etc) and check the total. I then bet maybe 10 games to go over assuming that several with hit overtime thus if the lines are accurate. So as an example games go 4 over, 4 under... with 2 games OT (usually over). It's a small bet system I used for fun to watch games and also a good time for middles. Especially NFL middles, after week 4 I use to really search and I had maybe 15 offshore accounts, mostly utilizing Pinnacle with low juice (-105 and moves accordingly) and accurate lines, Canbet with standard -107 juice, along with books in different areas. Once they put the first stop with online poker and Party Poker went down October 2nd, 2006, along with Neteller and sportsbooks really put a stop to getting great lines and middle.

For those not familiar, from 1995 to 2001, Poker sites, Sportsbooks and 3rd party money transfer operators, credit cards no longer were accepted. This had nothing to do with any U.S. law. What was happening was losing players would max-out their credit cards, and tell Visa or Mastercard that they were cheated causing a chargeback. Now this put offshore sites and Visa & Mastercard in a sticky spot. They thus suspended direct credit cards for online cash and started using PayPal (they stopped when US warned them of illegal money laundering), Neteller, Firepay, and even offshore sites that charged 5% and gave you a money card used for purchasing phone time, or redeemable at offshore sites. This existed for several years until sportsbooks became public and had oversight commissions and Visa & Mastercard no longer covered non-U.S. based transfers, and people were now allowed to use their credit cards at some places, then EBT became the #1 source as they all started their own Merchant Account companies strictly for their sites.
Sorry for the run on. It was just a story that I've yet seen posted on the history of money transfers with non-U.S. companies. Some remember these times, others don't. Here is one company that offered Risk-vs-Reward in a disadvantage way for them. Read on...
Firepay (unlike Neteller) advanced the money before they could retrieve it from your bank (it took4 business days most times). I had a Neteller account with always 50-100k, for poker mostly. Firepay I did a lot of business and had very high credit among offshore account and even the Caymans. They would charge $3.99 and allow me to take $2,500 (remember now, this was advanced money because it took exactly one week for them to get the withdrawal electronically). I was doing business with them and was allowed 10 transfers of $2,500 ($25,000) daily with a surcharge for $39.90 total (even though they sent people lawsuit threats, they had no US jurisdiction). As I always paid, I was allowed to do this daily, and before they went out of business like others in 2006-2007, I was getting $25,000 daily for 5 days ($125,000... sick. Why would they do such a ridiculous risk-vs-reward for $199.50 total). So if I started Monday and just did the most transfer I could, I would have $125,000 in Party Poker (other sites only allowed $750 daily $3,000 weekly, or until you became a VIP. Party Poker had no player-to-player restriction in the start... they then imposed a $1,000 max daily to start, and then had ranked you, etc.) by Friday ... AND THEY HAD NOT TAKEN ONE CENT FROM MY BANK YET.
I know many people who told me to hit them up and screw them. During that time I was close with a firm partner and VIP of the company and co-chairman on the board. I once bounced a 15k amount, as I used the wrong checking account, and became friends with the guy and explained and they got the cash 48 hours later as they auto-run the withdrawal cycles. I never understood why they didn't use strict rules like Neteller that maxed everyone at $750 instantly at 7.9%, but they were based out of Canada, UK, etc... Firepay basically was trusting a player (I'm sure others had this as well) an advance on 125k for less than $200.
Before their end I owed them around 48k and I had nothing liquid at the time. I had around 60k in Pinnacle (who closed maybe a few months later) and around $110k in Poker Stars (other sites were all much smaller). I asked them if I could do a direct transfer from Poker Stars to any account they maybe owned. They said "No..." I was stunned. Chris (VIP) explained the problems with that, so I told him about 12 days because I just did a few withdrawals from Pinnacle and they limited the amount of withdrawals monthly and other stuff. After 10 days, Pinnacle Fed-Ex me a check for that amount (which I hated as the IRS would definitely see and I was under the radar until that point, and was awaiting a call from the banks security asking why a checking account I used a few times now was clearing a huge check... it was actually easier than I though explaining my taxes listed job as professional gambler and I stated I won a tournament and was investing money offshore...TA-DA!) After I paid Firepay, 3 days later they closed due to the The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 (or UIGEA).
If it took 3 more days, I could have stated it would be illegal for me to pay them (true). It became a snowball effect and made online offshore gambling back into 1996...
Anyone familiar with this regulation that destroyed online offshore gambling that was doing it very big for a living, I'd like to hear it. Naturally I know over a hundred people very well that all went through the same thing...
PartyGaming went public in 2005 on the London Stock Exchange and quickly reached its maximum total value of over $12 billion... OVER 60% of their customer base was U.S.! The even bigger factor was that the games they made the most rake per hour was around 80-90% of U.S. players. Although ways still existed for U.S. players to play, making a big time living online was no longer around, yet alone any kind of living. Taking away all the recreational players and leaving just professionals leaves you earning 8-12% of previous earnings and it became much harder and longer hours.
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#31
Posted: 3/3/2012 7:59:13 AM
Its good you cleared that up for me. TY
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#32
Posted: 3/3/2012 8:15:35 AM
BigPapa21: I'm here for your requests... I could have spoke about our current war on terror in Afghanistan and the latest HUMINT sources, but I keeps it REALZ!




















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DannoDanger
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#33
Posted: 3/16/2012 5:01:46 PM

3/16/2012

FNF -

I think this ends early.  When Kendall is not scared of what's coming back, he'll stand in there and try to take your head off.  That could get him caught too, and despite the crappy KO numbers I think Coleman can KO Kendall (weak chin). 

Holt/Coleman under 7.5 rounds (+120 @ local) risking ~.91 to win ~1.09.

ShoBox -  

Figueroa should blow out Ayala.  He'll be bigger (esp after struggling to make weight), and I think this will be quick work for the prospect. 

Figueroa/Ayala under 5.5 rounds (+140 @ local) risking ~.84 to win ~1.17.

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DannoDanger
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#34
Posted: 3/16/2012 5:05:23 PM

I doubled down on the Figueroa/Ayala bet.  See it dropping (+125 @ 5dimes), and I really think this could be less than 5 minutes long. 

~1.68 to win ~2.34.

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#35
Posted: 3/16/2012 5:45:05 PM

Danno looking for a couple of stoppages.  GL as always 

Haven't pulled the trigger yet.

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DannoDanger
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#36
Posted: 3/16/2012 7:22:55 PM
Good luck to you too.  This day is getting uglier by the minute (Mizzou killed me).  Hopefully the fights finish the day off on a good note for me.
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DannoDanger
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#37
Posted: 3/17/2012 12:24:09 AM
Double ship.
Finally in the black. Up ~.83.
Posted using a mobile device.
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DannoDanger
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#38
Posted: 3/17/2012 9:23:01 PM

HBO 3/17:

George cannot get out of the way of punches.  I think Rodriguez does plenty of damage and stops him.  Rodriguez is the better boxer and should be able to hit George with everything he throws.

Martinez to sharp for Macklin.  I think the Sturm performance is deceiving (because I think Sturm sucks).  Macklin will probably come forward and maybe cause a few problems for Sergio, but Sergio is too athletic and fast.  I think he'll pick apart Macklin and eventually stop him.

George/Rodriguez under 9.5 rounds (-105 @ 5dimes) risking ~2.05 to win ~1.95.

Martinez ITD (-127 @ 5dimes) risking ~1.12 to win ~.88.

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DannoDanger
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#39
Posted: 3/18/2012 12:41:31 PM
Down ~.34. 
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DannoDanger
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#40
Posted: 3/24/2012 7:51:11 PM

NBCSports 3-24:

Jennings/Liakhovich is a tight fight.  I favor Jennings slightly, but I don't see any stoppages here.  Like the over a lot.

Jennings/Liakhovich over 9.5 (-200 @ 5dimes) risking 4 to win 2.

HBO:

Think Morales is being sacrificed for Garcia.  Good young fighter and he'll be hell for Morales.  Everyone fell in love with Morales again after the Maidana fight.  Maidana sucks.  I think this is a blowout. 

Garcia ITD (+190 @ 5dimes) risking ~1.38 to win ~2.62.

 

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