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Author: [College Football] Topic: *** NCAA Football Week 1 ***
chargerfan10 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#201
Posted: 8/28/2012 4:42:38 PM
waaaay too many games
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#202
Posted: 8/28/2012 4:46:39 PM

Love the thread minus the drama and bullshit Boom. 

Really like Mich St, Ga Tech, and Clemson plays...I am also leaning Michigan.

GL this year bro

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#203
Posted: 8/28/2012 5:15:46 PM
On FL -29 early.  surprised the line has not changed
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#204
Posted: 8/28/2012 6:29:03 PM
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#205
Posted: 8/28/2012 7:40:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by chargerfan10:

waaaay too many games
Think so? I went 10-2 on opening weekend last season...just saying


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#206
Posted: 8/28/2012 7:41:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Johnnynumbers:

Love the thread minus the drama and bullshit Boom. 

Really like Mich St, Ga Tech, and Clemson plays...I am also leaning Michigan.

GL this year bro

The Forum has some stink to it.... what can you say?

GL this year
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#207
Posted: 8/28/2012 8:58:02 PM
Boom a question, i have michigan +13.5, did you buy a hook? or do you recommend me to buy it? thanks!
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#208
Posted: 8/28/2012 9:07:45 PM
GL Boom!  Hope you have a great season!  
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#209
Posted: 8/28/2012 10:31:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TRAIN69:



I usually have 10 games in the books before the 6 pm games start


Boom is correct. Value is where you find it. If you can only find 2 or 3 games you think you have enough knowledge to bet on, then you should probably quit. If you only bet 2 or 3 games you either have to hit 100% or 66% to make make money each week. Thats not gonna be easy. Hitting 12 out of 20 isnt so hard......




first of all Id like to say im not one to get into lengthy discussions on line but this makes no sense........ the less games u choose the better chance at being successful...... u have a way better chance of 60% playing 3 to 5 a week then 20 a week....or even 10 for that matter.......no disrespect because its apparent that its a topic and statement on your part that needs further clarification but 

and I'm sure you know ur RSI but for those that dont.......

 RSI also shows you the difference between a 20-10 record and a 40-20 record. Both records are 67%, but the 40-20 record is much harder to achieve, and results in a higher RSI rating.

anyway....GL this season Train.....ttysoon
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alekomtz
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#210
Posted: 8/28/2012 11:13:24 PM
people, if you dont like this thread, dont read it. Boom is not expecting money from us, favours from us, or anything. He is just sharing his knowledge, could be an awful season, could be a great season, just wish everyone a great season!
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#211
Posted: 8/28/2012 11:25:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by slomotion:


first of all Id like to say im not one to get into lengthy discussions on line but this makes no sense........ the less games u choose the better chance at being successful...... u have a way better chance of 60% playing 3 to 5 a week then 20 a week....or even 10 for that matter.......no disrespect because its apparent that its a topic and statement on your part that needs further clarification but 

and I'm sure you know ur RSI but for those that dont.......

 RSI also shows you the difference between a 20-10 record and a 40-20 record. Both records are 67%, but the 40-20 record is much harder to achieve, and results in a higher RSI rating.

anyway....GL this season Train.....ttysoon

Why do you have more chance with less games?  And I need a logical (statistical?) answer not a wordy one.  If you cap well enough to have an edge then the more you play the MORE likely you are to tend towards that edge with a larger play size.
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#212
Posted: 8/28/2012 11:49:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Julespussy:


Why do you have more chance with less games?  And I need a logical (statistical?) answer not a wordy one.  If you cap well enough to have an edge then the more you play the MORE likely you are to tend towards that edge with a larger play size.

An aberration is much more likely in a small sample (5 games) than a larger sample (40 games). 60% is an aberration.
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#213
Posted: 8/29/2012 9:21:03 AM
How about this guys: as Train said, value is where you find it - whether it's one game or a hundred on any given week.  I think this is what Boom does - and he makes his wagers accordingly by making unit wagers - more units where there is more value, fewer units where there is less relative value, but still value from his handicapping perspective.

At the end of the day, it is the best approach becuase while we all like to say we hit 65% of our plays or whatever, at the end what really matters is how many units of cash you have won.  There are plenty of successful handicappers hitting 56-57%, but if you're playing a lot of games and adjusting your bet size based on value, will can win a lot of units. Same for only playing a few very selective games, but you must hit the higher percentage.

Boom can correct me here on the specifics, but I think he won something like 40 units last season in CFB.  I don't care how you do it, that is a great season - if your unit size is 2% of bankroll, that's an 80% ROI in 4 months; if your unit size is 5% of bankroll, it's a 200% ROI; both of which beat the markets by a long shot ....

GWJTF
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#214
Posted: 8/29/2012 12:21:08 PM
gwjtf

my comments have nothing to do with Boom directly. Just the math behind Trains thinking. Boom as well as everyone else can play as many games as they want. No difference to me one way or the other.
GL this year
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#215
Posted: 8/29/2012 12:21:24 PM

The only realistic chance of making units in any game of chance is “ELIMINATING THE HUMAN FACTOR”. “What the hell is that you cried”? This means you must us a % vs bankroll when wagering on any sports, tables games etc., we as humans have one constant when wagering on anything that is “GREED”.  If you are really interested in making units than just looking for the ACTION then let your bankroll take care of itself. It’s like that old saying in golf, “95% of golfers can’t break 100” You can not flat bet, which is betting the same amount week in and week out. The vig will kill you. You are going to find that in sports betting W/L come in streaks.

 

By using % vs bankroll when you are on a winning streak you will win more because the % on your bankroll will be higher. When you are on a losing streak you will lose less because you wager keeps getting less as you lose. The one thing that irks me more than anything is when people on covers show their record. Records mean nothing unless it shows the reality. Everybody wants to be a winner. The trouble with that is you might be a winner in wins and losses but you are not winning any units.

 

When wagering on sports you need: (1) Great Sports Book (2) Take Out the Human Factor. (3) Only Bet What You Can Afford To Lose.  (4) Follow some one who is good in any one sport. (5) Learn how to keep your figures in EXCEL SPREAD SHEET.  Covers have very good cappers in any one sport. You can win the war but in order to do that you will lose a few battles. The key is to win more battles than you lose. This is like an IRA ACCOUNT. You invest a certain amount and try to get a good return on your money. If you think your going to start with a $2,000 bankroll and make 50% or $1,000 in a season for College Football you are delusional. First of all it’s important to understand where you monies are most at risk.  Next up:

 

Examples and what % you should be using on any given bankroll. Boom is a great handicapper in College Football, so I will be using his plays as an example. By the way I do have 24 years experience in Las Vegas in the gaming industry and spent many years in the top sport books. That does not mean I know it all, it just means I have a lot of experience. you can make units by doing a few simple things and sticking to some basic rules of wagering on any game of chance. Systems work “IF YOUR DO NOT DEVIATE FROM THEM ONE IOTA” This is not rocket science. Be a machine “TAKE OUT THAT HUMAN FACTOR”. Keep in mind that the information we have on any given entity the better return on our money.

 

-----MORE TO COME-----

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#216
Posted: 8/29/2012 12:54:20 PM
ZZZZZ......half is true..... you sound like a bored table games supervisor beating around the bush about basic bankroll management when playing Blackjack....lol.....granted I dont flat bet but and I have easily doubled my bankroll in college foots year after year so I dunno...... also we are not talking blackjack here so the "game of chance" we are playing is not even close to similar..... im done with topic and trashing up this thread.....

GL Boom
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#217
Posted: 8/29/2012 1:30:06 PM

First of all I don’t live in Las Vegas anymore I am retired. Remember gentleman we are talking about the

people who are limited on your monies to invest. People like slomotion are more educated and have a limitless income. So I can understand his frustration. He’s already well educated in this field. This is not for Advanced players. As slomotion said: he doubles his bankroll every year. Hopefully he put his plays up and the amounts he wagers so we can get a better idea on how we can double our bankrolls…..

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#218
Posted: 8/29/2012 1:39:34 PM

Thanks again for the info slomotion, I’ll be looking for you plays and units wagered. I appreciate your input, I can't wait to double my bankroll. It's nice to know that I will be able to for the first time in my life make 200% in NCAAF.....

 

Woody

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#219
Posted: 8/29/2012 2:02:23 PM

First off, the two worst sports to make any units in wagering is (1) NLF – Why do you think this sport is so publicized?  Almost 67% of all sports book monies are made in the NFL. (2) NCAAF – Much easier. The one thing that’s constant is the vig.

 

You must try to eliminate the vig or try to keep it as low as possible. Let’s specifically talk about NCAAF, since that is what our example is going to be of. If you are going to indulge yourself in wagering on the NCAAF there are only a few ways to eliminate the vig completely.

 

Parlay: You will never make any money on a constant doing this. (2) Two team 6 point teaser. This pays even money + you have 6 points to play with either way. The only negative here is you must win both games. Good wager, if your sports book will allow this. (3) Money Lines: “Dumb” Juice is way too high. We could do a 2 team ml parlay, but again both teams must win. This is a very good wager no vig involved. Any money line around -210 will get you a good profit. Formula based on 100 units.

 

100 DIVIDED BY ML -210 = 0.48      100 DIVIDED BY ML -210 = 0.48

Just put a 1 where the zero is 1.48 x 1.48 = 2.19 – your bet 100 = 119

 

So, here as you can see for every 100 you get 119. Very good wager but again let’s keep in mind you must win both games. There are a lot of different scenarios. Let’s concentrate on our example which will be following BOOM PLAYS.

 

2,000 bankroll @ 2% per play. That’s 40 per play (not 44 to win 40 but 40 to win 36 ** remember % vs bankroll at 13 plays (average vig 10%) = true investment 520. What ever your win loss is you add or subtract from your 2000 x 2% of your new bankroll in week 2.

 

Break up your plays into 3 different entities. Teams, Overs and Unders. For an example your teams may do better than your totals or overs might do better than unders. By doing this you stop yourself from decreasing your bankroll. Remember winning streaks get your wager higher than losing streaks. Losing streaks your wager will lower.

 

Just follow BOOM’S PLAYS every week and you will see a profit at years end. The one thing you never ever do is NEGATIVE PROGRESSION. That’s bad money chasing more bad money. Always use the sport books money to increase you wager not your own.

 

Woody

 

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#220
Posted: 8/29/2012 5:16:34 PM
Interesting conversation we got going here guys.

Woody - Well thought out. I always respect a well thought out response.


Look guys, it's simple for me. I know there is always a ton of discussions on how to mange your money or how many games to play. I say this. Do what's best for you.

 I play more games for this very simple reason...... I have a larger overall knowledge of the college football landscape then most. I see " value " in what I believe to be true. What I mean is, most guys focus on one conference, and that's totally fine. There again, do whats best for you!! I may bet on more games with a larger variety. But I only do that because I follow every conference and every team whereas most guys just follow one team or one conference. Trust me, If I bet on 13 plays in week 1....it's because I like those 13 plays. I think for my " money " or my " value ", it's the best for me.



Again I will say this. Whereas 99.99% of every covers member you will meet cares about one thing. Winning there bet, Covering the game. As with me, I do want to cover my bet dont get me wrong. But I share my thoughts and picks with you guys because I'm a purist. I write the " ten things we learned " every week because I love the game, and I feel like my " voice " for the college game needs to be heard. The game of football means more to me then money. Although I have done very well with it through the years, it's simply not the most important thing in my life. I make good money at my job and have a wonderful family. Those are the things that mean the most to me, not gambling. So I say this to all the " Perfect System Gamblers "........Do whats best for you





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#221
Posted: 8/29/2012 5:23:33 PM
BOL this season. I hope you kill it
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#222
Posted: 8/29/2012 5:55:07 PM

The average Joe does not have time to do what it takes. I spend most of my time running the numbers than finding quality plays. I don’t care what % you hit in the win/loss column, unless you manage you money – It’s like a blind date “You spend a lot of money and you’ll be lucky to get a kiss at the door”. My bankrolls over the years have increased dramatically. So can yours! It is all relative to the amount of units you are trying to make in any given sport.

 

If your vig is an average of -110, you must hit 52.3% to break even.   I have followed BOOM over the years and as I said earlier you will make money.  Whether you pick 1 play or 20 plays and bat just 55% you will make an easy 22% on your money plus you will get a lot of action. You can’t get that anywhere. Yes it’s true you must pick winners !!! Do we know of anyone else year in and year out that has does so? Again this all based on the rules I mentioned earlier. What a concept % vs bankroll + BOOMS plays = winning units. The kicker is all this information is free. Remember, this is not just one race it’s a marathon…..

 

Good Luck to All

 

Woody

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#223
Posted: 8/29/2012 6:05:16 PM
Good luck Boom.
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#224
Posted: 8/29/2012 6:05:17 PM
Good luck Boom.
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#225
Posted: 8/29/2012 7:17:36 PM
love flordia,micigan,ohio st...i like ky also..good job  boom
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