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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: how do you cap this crap....mlb is worst than any other sport to cap??
jnemeh send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: The Greek |
jnemeh
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#1
Posted: 4/30/2012 1:25:57 AM
Angels last place in west...mets beating colorado two of three in denver.(how to lose to bp pitcher dillon gee)....cubs taking 2 of 3 in philly.....good luck.....flip a coin and hope it lands on heads.......interested if anyone has a pulse on making money in this sport??
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greg152072 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#2
Posted: 4/30/2012 1:46:44 AM
I know how you feel man I was having so many ups and down unitl I tried a system and its worked wonders for me. Basically I pick mostly dominate teams in a series and bet that they don't get swept. So for instance if I lose the first game I double up on the second game and thriple up if it goes to a 3rd game. I have made $1400 on the last 5 series. My goal is to make $40 dollars in profit off each team which I usually pick about 10-12 teams just depend on the matchups and pitchers that are going in the series.
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VegasBlood send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#3
Posted: 4/30/2012 1:47:54 AM
momentum and trends my friends...hot streaks...cold streaks

for example

two weeks ago you see the angels are struggling...fade them for hte past 14 days...thats lots of winners right there


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TheBallDontLie send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#4
Posted: 4/30/2012 1:49:00 AM
i usually just touch totals which seem easier, to me anyway 
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#5
Posted: 4/30/2012 1:52:42 AM
I would rather have a consistant system that is going to win over time. On average about 7-10% of the time a team gets swepts and its usually the bad teams. I looked at the Yankees schedule for 2011 and they only got swept once the entire season.
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#6
Posted: 4/30/2012 1:59:12 AM
Baseball can be streaky. I generally like to bet any team that's been on a win streak of 3 games, and bet against any team that's lost 3 in a row.  As they say, when you're hot, you're hot...when you're not, you're not. Of course, this is not a hard and fast rule, just a guideline. I still cap games accordingly like starting pitcher, the bullpens of both teams, injuries, batting lineups, and any relevant stats and trends. This is only my second season of capping MLB so I'm still learning as I go. GL with all your plays
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#7
Posted: 4/30/2012 2:03:56 AM

For instance the teams I took the last series were Cards, Reds, Mets, Angels,Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, Rangers, Braves, Giants and Washington. They all won in there first two games except Washington so I took the profit and didn't bet the 3rd game with Washington. I have made money every series doing this and even if one team gets swept out of the 12 teams I pick I will still most likely make money for the series.

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#8
Posted: 4/30/2012 2:07:58 AM
The teams I am taking next series are Cards, Reds, Mets, Angels, Rangers, Yankees, Red Sox, Brewers, Dodgers, Detroit, Rays because I don't see any of these teams getting swept based on the pitching matchups and the way these teams are playing.
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#9
Posted: 4/30/2012 2:11:07 AM
ok, there was a day not long ago... and this is what happened...

verlander, roy H, romero all lost... and even weaver lost...

if u parlayed that shiet happening, you woulda made 

if u can find a good book that gives good plus $ then i'd take the dogs...
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#10
Posted: 4/30/2012 2:22:15 AM
false
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#11
Posted: 4/30/2012 2:44:42 AM
Just bet some select unders
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#12
Posted: 4/30/2012 2:53:05 AM
Rookie thread followed lot's of rookie answer's all the way around. Only time will tell your fate as you learn to figure out one sport from the next. How ever you get to that point just remember one very important thing. That is to never take any advice ever from the guy in post #11. Doing so will result in lot's of donating to your book of choice.
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#13
Posted: 4/30/2012 2:59:13 AM


If you cap via statistics or other bullshit, you are guaranteed a loss, in American sports they are professional, you shouldnt give a damn about statistics, so for those who fade teams who have lost 3 in a row or something like that, you are guaranteed to lose. And if you win then its NOT because of the statistics, then its because of the lineup, luck etc.
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#14
Posted: 4/30/2012 3:12:58 AM

You just have tp pick your spots Bud... Ya can't win 'em all but you can be more consistent if you avoid plays on large fav's and just look for picks that seem to have a fair shot at winning.

I have certain teams that I like to side with and they are consistent for me (but even they lose sometimes). Then thier are certain teams that I go against on a regular basis and do well with (but even they win sometimes).

The other day EVERY fav in the AL lost SU... All of them. Cost me a pretty coin.

I look for solid picks... for Monday, April 30th 2012 there are MULTIPLE hot dog plays (in my opinion).

They are Baltimore(at NYY)... Oakland(at Boston)... and the Dodgers(at Colorado).

The Favs I like are Miami(vs Arizona)... Texas(at Toronto)... Atlanta(vs Pirates)... Detroit(vs KC) and TampaBay(vs Seattle).

I don't OVERTHINK MLB picks... I just look at the ESPN scoreboard for the upcoming games and check the Pitching matchups first(Wins - Losses and ERA)... then the teams home and road records and thier overall record.

I watch the MLB channels highlights each night to keep a good feel for teams.

And that's how I make my decisions. Just look for the best mismatches vs the lines posted and AVOID big favs.

Just try and develope a feel for each team and ignore the lines... they only blind you one way or the other. I pick my teams BEFORE looking at the lines.... and I stick with my slections unless later on I notice some significant information that I feel is important enough to alter my selection... then I will either flip or... usually I just pass on it then.

I use a book... and write down all the teams for that day that I like... and list them in order by less risk to higher risk in my opinion. I add my estimated amount of runs for totals... Then I look at the lines and write them down also. Then I make my selections. At the end of the day I write a "W" or an "L" next to the teams... This way I can track how well my perception is of each team and how well they have done for me. My book looks like it's written in Chinese... ha,ha,ha. But it works for me.

I seriously think that Baltimore...Oakland and the Dodgers ALL win tomorrow as nice dog lines while Miami... Atlanta... Texas... Detroit and TampaBay are decent prices for solid fav plays. Each of my selections here have favorable pitching matchups and the Home vs Road records are very acceptable also.

Good Luck jnemeh

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#15
Posted: 4/30/2012 3:25:01 AM

It also helps to check the boxscores daily. I do this and it gives me a good mental picture of when teams are giving up runs (late or early or all game long)... and if they are giving up them in bunches during a certain part of the game. Are the starters costing them games or the bullpens... Is a team scoring late ALL the time... does a team play well when behind in a game... Does a team rely on HR's to win thier games or can they produce runs without many HR's... Does a team need a ton of hits to score or do they score often with a normal amount of hits...??? All these are part of what I try and keep in mind when making picks.

For example... It seems that Lincecum tends to give up HR's in the 4th and 5th innings which can kill 1st 5 innings plays on the Giants (-1/2 run) or the 1st 5 innings Unders plays. I avoid those kind of plays on them now.

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jnemeh send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: The Greek |
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#16
Posted: 4/30/2012 4:15:13 AM
thanks for all the advice....im a baseball guru...but this year has been very difficult because nothing has gone as planned....i usually do alot of stats before a game...but that is not in the cards for this years selections

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jnemeh send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: The Greek |
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#17
Posted: 4/30/2012 4:15:38 AM
thanks for the insight skub
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Trader4 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#18
Posted: 4/30/2012 5:10:08 AM
greg152072

Sent you a friend request, got some ideas want to share with you by private message
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#19
Posted: 4/30/2012 5:40:26 AM
Gotta have a system like the 3 game series chase  mentioned .
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#20
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:52:56 AM
Try to find some ML wagers with some value. Don't bet the -150 or over games.  Look for a few good RL spots with +125 or higher.

I agree with the posters who said to find hot and cold teams and pitchers.

And last of all you have to have some good luck
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#21
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:57:28 AM
Try team totals bro. A loy of offshores offer them now. GL
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#22
Posted: 4/30/2012 9:59:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hendog:

Rookie thread followed lot's of rookie answer's all the way around. Only time will tell your fate as you learn to figure out one sport from the next. How ever you get to that point just remember one very important thing. That is to never take any advice ever from the guy in post #11. Doing so will result in lot's of donating to your book of choice.

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I-Got-5-On-It send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: PaddyPower.com |
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#23
Posted: 4/30/2012 12:10:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheBallDontLie:

i usually just touch totals which seem easier, to me anyway 


  same here especially team totals
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duranizm
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#24
Posted: 4/30/2012 12:15:56 PM
MLB looks sophisticated, but if you are true fan of baseball & MLB, and have some knowledge about sabermetrics ( i mean you should read detaield stats for the very 1st basement, then make your own model or reasoning by taking & changing & adding stats, etc), then MLB is a reaaaaaaaally good sports to cap. you know, this kind of work is reaaly interesting because sometimes i can guess which inning ace-starters will ruin in the game. that made me high really!! just enjoy baseball first!! making money is another thing.
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