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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Craps or Black Jack Strategy
hoop121 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 4/16/2012 2:19:42 AM

I'm headed to Vegas in about a month and would like to be as prepared as possible to increase my chances of winning.

Anyone have any solid craps or black jack strategies they'd like to share? Or a very good MM system?

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#2
Posted: 4/16/2012 3:01:19 AM
They dont exsist man. Just go have fun and be prepared to leave it all at the tables unless u find a real lucky shooter who gets hot. For blackjack unless u are really well funded and can count with no mistakes u cant beat that either. Not trying to burn you out but nobody can beat the house edge and if someone tells u different its bs
Posted using a mobile device.
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#3
Posted: 4/16/2012 3:30:28 AM

i think you missed the point.

i wasn't asking for an unbeatable craps or black jack strategy. i was looking for someone to share some wisdom on a way to increase my chances of winning.

There are several ways of playing probabilities and hedging your bets in craps that can minimize losses and protect from huge P&L swings.

I'd like to knoe if anyone has a personal strategy that they are willing to share.

Obviously, I know that there are no guaranteed winning strategies. "Vegas wasn't built on..."

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#4
Posted: 4/16/2012 10:55:13 AM
Hey, hoop.  You should make an effort to learn basic strategy if you want to play blackjack.  Go to www.wizardofodds.com.  Michael Shackelford is a well-respected gambling expert and there is a wealth of information on this website.  You can learn his basic strategy numbers which will reduce the house edge to under 1%.  You can even practice your skills here for free.  You also need to play at the right table....where the rules are favorable but the table minimum is still within your budgeted bankroll.  For this kind of info go to www.BJ21.com. 

As for craps, I use the KISS principle:  Keep It Simple, Stupid!  Bet the pass line only on the comeout roll, then back it up with an equal bet, or more if you have adequate funding.

You also might consider playing video poker, another game that has a decent house edge.  But you must learn the strategies for these games also and you can find them at the Wizard's place.

Good Luck and have fun.  And the most important advice of all is this:  Only gamble with money you can afford to lose.  And anticipate losing it all, and then decide if this would be too painful.  Adjust your bankroll accordingly!


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#5
Posted: 4/16/2012 1:24:49 PM
Craps is pass line bet and back up with double odds.  2 come bets with double odds.  this to minimize losses but will also minimize your wins.  If you wish to gamble, pass line bets with odds and place bets whatever numbers you feel you like.  As numbers hit, press up place bets.  As amounts increase you can take some winnings or also called press and go.  If you feel real lucky play hardways and if you hit you can parlay the winnings for more.  You need to find a hot table with decent shooters, if not, disregard and go to Black Jack table.  Now black jack requires lots of strategy like splitting cards, doubling down,etc. all depending on what the dealer is showing.  You need too know a lot.  If all else fail, play pai-gow, a leisurely paced game.  Play the progressive for a chance at big money!!
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#6
Posted: 4/21/2012 11:16:51 PM

Forget black jack - play games where you have a choice to go with or against - craps or baccarat.  That being said:

I love craps - dice is a flow - the people who roll are simply a vehicle in the flow - so don't get stuck on the vehicle (meaning the guy had a great roll he will do it again - no he won't) - the casino is simply a bookmaker - your not betting against them or on them - if the flow is positive you go with the shooter and take max odds and do 2 come bets max and take max odds. Only place the 6 and 8 - casino advantage is minimal. Never place 5 or 9 - for 5 dollar bet they should pay you 7.50 (3/2) - they don't - they pay you 7.  On 4 and 10 - they should pay you 2 to 1 - for a 5 dollar bet - they pay 9 - a dollar goes in their pocket - avoid placing 4, 5, 9 and 10.

The key is figuring out the flow:  Hints that may help

1. If there is a great roll - someone hits 5 points - the encore usually sucks - thus go against after a good roll.

2. They stay negative for a while - so ride that pony and go negative.

3. If the dice have been cold and someone hits a point - don't jump on it yet - wait for the next person - they usually will hit a couple of points - then the next guy - then they will get cold again - so you go with the flow.

4. The best scenarios - the dice are hot or cold - when they are choppy - it's hard to get a good read - that's when you walk away or are extremely conservative.

5. When the table is cold - i lay vice risking money on the Don't pass - basically let's say the point is a five. You would lay in increments of 3 to win increments of 2.  And for every 20 you win you have to pay 1 dollar commision. For example, the point is a 5 - you can lay 150 to win 100 plus you give them 5 dollars as commision - which you don't get back either way. 

6. don't get hung up on putting money in the field or hard ways - yes they are fun but they will eat you up. It's a balancing act regarding your bank roll - don't risk all of it on one roll.

7. If you really wanna double your money - fold it up and stick it in your pocket:)   

 

 

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#7
Posted: 4/22/2012 10:36:05 AM
Buddha makes two good points:  #6 and #7.  Unfortunately, the rest of his advice is based on hunches, selective memory, and "the Gambler's Fallacy", that being the belief that a random event or series of random events is or are dependent on previous outcomes.  The casinos count on this widely held belief that the table is "hot" or "cold".  Forget it.  Unless the shooter is using a dice control method, which is a whole different subject, the outcome of the roll is completely and utterly random.  The dice have no memory of the past.  They don't know what happened on the previous roll and they don't care one way or the other.  The odds of rolling a certain number are the same EVERY time.  There is NO evidence to the contrary, and this has been explored by mathematicians for hundreds of years.  If you believe in destiny or "Lady Luck", fine.  I myself have experienced good runs as well as bad runs.  But these runs still conform to million-trial simulators testing for randomness.  So if you flip a coin and it comes up tails 10 times in a row, can you predict what the next flip will be?  You have a 50/50 chance my friend.  Just keep that in mind when you are playing negative expectation casino games.
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TheBuddah
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#8
Posted: 4/22/2012 11:16:56 AM
Snappa - i agree with what your saying completely - thus step number 7:)
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#9
Posted: 4/22/2012 11:25:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheBuddah:

Snappa - i agree with what your saying completely - thus step number 7:)



HAHAHA.  I like that saying.  Here's another one:  What's the quickest way to have a million dollars?

Take two million dollars to a casino.
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#10
Posted: 4/22/2012 11:38:40 AM

lol.....or if you really wanna double your money stick it in front of a mirror.

I'm a patterns guy whether it's dice or baseball, football, basketball, i follow patterns - recognizing everything you have stated - in my own little world what i mentioned above are the patterns i noticed - key word   i  .   At the end of the day it's about choices and consequences.

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#11
Posted: 4/22/2012 11:52:52 AM
I have to admit, Buddha: I'm guilty of betting on streaks myself.. sometimes it just seems like no matter what you do you win.  But for me, the losing streaks happen more often; no matter what you do you lose.  This is my achilles heel, 'cause I stay and play to try to get even and I end up losing twice as much.
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#12
Posted: 4/22/2012 3:01:02 PM

I can relate snappa.  I try to look at the people as simply a pawn in the game - they aren't a bad or good pawn simply somone who is throwing the dice.....that helps me....not to get stuck on a person or to believe that somone/table will always be hot.....or cold......it goes back to trying to figure out the flow...the tidbits above help me gauge that....eventhough as you stated....each roll is independent of the other.......it's so damn fun if you are on a good run.  

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#13
Posted: 5/3/2012 12:48:32 PM
when someone starts comming outand he rolls a5 9 3 4 two or three times then i start the hop onthe number he hits the most of then we hits the number thn i quit while i am up
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#14
Posted: 5/24/2012 7:55:12 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Snappa:

Buddha makes two good points:  #6 and #7.  Unfortunately, the rest of his advice is based on hunches, selective memory, and "the Gambler's Fallacy", that being the belief that a random event or series of random events is or are dependent on previous outcomes.  The casinos count on this widely held belief that the table is "hot" or "cold".  Forget it.  Unless the shooter is using a dice control method, which is a whole different subject, the outcome of the roll is completely and utterly random.  The dice have no memory of the past.  They don't know what happened on the previous roll and they don't care one way or the other.  The odds of rolling a certain number are the same EVERY time.  There is NO evidence to the contrary, and this has been explored by mathematicians for hundreds of years.  If you believe in destiny or "Lady Luck", fine.  I myself have experienced good runs as well as bad runs.  But these runs still conform to million-trial simulators testing for randomness.  So if you flip a coin and it comes up tails 10 times in a row, can you predict what the next flip will be?  You have a 50/50 chance my friend.  Just keep that in mind when you are playing negative expectation casino games.

 

This is a spot-on explanation of the Law of Independent Trials.  From my observations living in Nevada, 90% of gamblers don't understand/believe it.  They are wrong wrong wrong.

 

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#15
Posted: 5/24/2012 8:06:30 PM

To expand just a bit, this disbelief in the Law of Independent Trials is in some ways a manifestation of anthropomorphism, in other words, attributing human attributes to non-human things.  "The cards hate me."  "This machine doesn't like me."  "The dice are my friends."  The very idea of a "hot dealer," or a "hot casino" is ludicrous.  Assuming that the payouts are the same, your chance of winning is the same no matter where you play.  Randomness guarantees that you will win more at some casinos and lose more at others.  But your odds of winning at a casino where you usually lose are the same as the odds of winning at a casino where you usually win.

 

Of course, over time, the overwhelming majority of casino gamblers will lose.  Doesn't stop me, but at least I go into a casino expecting to lose.  This makes the winning days even more rewarding.

 

 

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#16
Posted: 5/25/2012 12:16:42 AM

As someone else said. With craps do a pass/don't pass with max odds and then a couple of come/don't come with max odds.

With BJ, just know the basic strategy cold.  If you have a little time study the KO count. You can get the book online.  

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#17
Posted: 5/25/2012 5:53:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lippsman:

As someone else said. With craps do a pass/don't pass with max odds and then a couple of come/don't come with max odds.

With BJ, just know the basic strategy cold.  If you have a little time study the KO count. You can get the book online.  


Casino online is cheating. Click the link belowlink http://sportsbettingsites.org/news/amigotechs-video-poker-at-youwager-598/

Anh this is from Wikipedia.org.

"Fraudulent online casino operator behavior

Fraudulent behavior on the part of online casinos has been documented. The most commonly reported behaviors are refusal to pay withdrawals or cheating software with rigged payouts. An online casino with multiple confirmed cases of fraudulent behavior is often called a rogue casino by the online casino player community.[4]

Some casino software has been mathematically proven to cheat, such as Elka System/Oyster Gaming and Casino Bar.[5] Screen shots from the back office of an older brand of software indicated the odds could be adjusted by the operator.

Many casino gambling portals and player forums maintain blacklists of rogue casinos.[4][6][7] While some carry more authority than others, most blacklists constitute individual webmaster and player opinions rather than anything official from any type of regulating body."

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#18
Posted: 5/25/2012 10:23:06 AM

Yes I don't advise anyone to play casino games online.  But the poster said he was going to Vegas, not playing online.

But thanks for the info.

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#19
Posted: 6/11/2012 9:39:51 AM

thanks for the advice guys.

 

i ended up doing some more independant research and came up with a pretty decent craps "dark side" system that ended up returning 180% in profits.

i must say, i have found that the key to leaving Vegas a winner is:

1. a solid money management system. it's not what you bet, but HOW you bet. and anything having to do with doubling your money after a loss is a sure fire way to lose your bankroll in a hurry.

2. the main reason why most people leave Vegas a winner......

they have to make their flight.

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#20
Posted: 6/11/2012 10:13:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hoop121:

1. a solid money management system. it's not what you bet, but HOW you bet. and anything having to do with doubling your money after a loss is a sure fire way to lose your bankroll in a hurry.



I read a book recently about money management and how important it is.  Author said "Most people spend 90% of their time worrying about who they're going to bet and less than 10% on how they're going to do it. If you want to be successful, this should be the other way around."
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#21
Posted: 6/11/2012 10:19:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hoop121:

thanks for the advice guys.

 

i ended up doing some more independant research and came up with a pretty decent craps "dark side" system that ended up returning 180% in profits.

i must say, i have found that the key to leaving Vegas a winner is:

1. a solid money management system. it's not what you bet, but HOW you bet. and anything having to do with doubling your money after a loss is a sure fire way to lose your bankroll in a hurry.

2. the main reason why most people leave Vegas a winner......

they have to make their flight.

You mind sharing your craps "dark side" system and money mangemnet system for Craps?

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#22
Posted: 6/11/2012 11:26:56 AM

it's pretty complex and uses a combination of hedging strategies to neutralize the volatility to my bank roll in the case of a "hot roller".

like i said, the key is money management. basically, i try to maximize gains during a winning streak and mitigate losses during a losing streak.

the progression is very simple:

betting unit 1 = x

after first bet wins, increase by x*1.5

if second bet wins, increase by x*2

if you lose then go back one step until you get to one betting unit and just keep betting one unit until you win.

after three wins in a row, start over.

the rest of the system is hedging

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#23
Posted: 6/11/2012 3:22:21 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by CannedGoods:



I read a book recently about money management and how important it is.  Author said "Most people spend 90% of their time worrying about who they're going to bet and less than 10% on how they're going to do it. If you want to be successful, this should be the other way around."

what was the book?

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#24
Posted: 6/16/2012 9:42:20 PM

"maximize gains during a winning streak and mitigate losses during a losing streak"

Bullseye!!!
It's the key to ANY gambling game session or season.
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