Posted: 4/22/2011 9:33:55 PM
Still stinging from Black Friday Ive decided to go give the live game a shot tonite.
Ive been debating all week what my next move is since Black Friday since online poker is my primary source of income. I still have a few online alternatives (different sites, vpn, etc) but I really think I'll probably only be able to make about half of what i did before and thats not good enough so Im looking for other options.
The problem with live (in my opinion) is the rake obviously. Playing $1/$2 or $2/$5 with a $4 or $5 rake per pot is brutal, the reason basically noone can do it "for a living" playing this low.
However to play higher, like $5/$10, you need basically AT LEAST a $10,000 bankroll, more like $25,000 or more, and who the hell has that kind of money, thats almost as much as I made online all last year!!!!!
So really Ive had to think all week about what my goals and realitic expectations are.
Not to get too into my personal finances but i own a business that makes my mortgage payment for me that really only commands about 5 hours of my time/week and thats been the reason Ive been able to play online the last few years to pay all my other bills (utilities, child support, spending $, etc etc). The last few years Ive averaged about $500-$600/week online which considering my mortgage is paid has been pretty nice for me, allowing me to stay home and kinda enjoy life a little more than when I was a 9to5er.
Anyways , Im not really sure I can continue to average $500/week or more in the new poker environment.
So I'm hopin maybe I can still make about $300/week online and make another $200 or $300/week live. This I feel is a much more realistic goal than trying to have the same results online or trying to do it all live. Theres no way I can average $500/week or more playin $1/$2 or $2/$5 live imo.
The game Im gonna play is the $2/$5 No-Limit game at the local Indian Casino. This game is so friggen juicy, the buy-in is $100-$300.
Ive thought all week about how to approach this game on my short cash bankroll and I really only have $300 to take tonite which is just brutal. So instead of buying in for $300 at once Im gonna shortstack it, buying in $100 at a time.
Before anyone tells me Im underrolled or spreading myself too thin I KNOW THIS, but this is just the state I and many other online guys are at right now. I could play the $1/$2 for $100 buyins but this $2/$5 game is just ridiculously juicy as guys build $1500 stacks there regularly, its really just an absolute donkfest.
So the plan since Im really only gonna have 20 blinds is gonna be to , hopefully, find a hand in late postion after theres been a raise (standard raise is $20-$25) and a caller or two and then push all-in with a wide range of hands that play well against my opponents calling ranges.
So two things can happen, say a guy raises to $25 and gets 2 callers (somewhat favorable circumstances but we'll use this for a base example). When the pot gets to me theres gonna be $82 in it (if a raise and two callers) and I'm gonna shove it for $100.
So, if I get lucky and everyone folds to my $75 raise ($25 to $100) i will instantly pick up $82, almost doubling my stack without a fight!!!!! Honestly though I only see them folding maybe 25% of the time due to my short stack and the looseness of this game.
Then, if called (by only one player), I am risking my $100 to win about $150 (oponents stack + the call/folders minus rake) in a $250 pot. Now most likely, unless Im lucky enough to get TT+ in the first few orbits, Im prolly gonna be behind when called, thats why Im choosing my shoving hands with the best possible equity against what my opponents may be calling with.
I need about 40% equity when called for this to be a profitable move, and actually even less due to the small pct of times Ill win the pot uncontested preflop.
Its amazing the # of hands that carry that type of equity preflop against opponents calling ranges. I'll show some pokerstovve results in my next post to show you what I mean