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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: TOYOTA BUE GRASS--post em' here
mikeyp1 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 4/14/2012 9:16:36 AM

Hansen is the biggest name in the field and the 6-5 morning line favorite, which should be no surprise to anyone who has followed this horse since he exploded onto the racing landscape last September. The question to ask is “Can I play against?”

 

Why not? After all, the winner of the Tampa Bay Derby, Prospective; heavy trail tout, Dullahan; up n’ comer, Howe Great; talented Scatman; LA Derby winner, Hero of Order and sleeper long shot, Ever So Lucky are entered.

 

#4 Hansen…….I don’t think anyone is ready to anoint the Tapit colt the Affirmed of the New Millennium, but this guy is awfully good. He’s won nearly $1.5 million in a five race career winning four races, including the BC Juve (G-I) with a second place in the Holy Bull after stumbling at the start. Maker moves him back to the synthetic, which might be curious to some, but I am sure not to the conditioner. Look at the competition carefully as there are several who have found success on the carpet fiber, including Prospective, who might be sitting on a decent effort. BTW….I don’t want to listen to any of that “Hansen doesn’t need the earnings so he won’t try hard” garbage. This horse is in it to win it.

 

#3 Prospective…..His only lifetime flat tire came on the big stage at the BC Juve when he finished nearly 21 out to Hansen, Union Rags and Creative Cause. Those three are among the leaders in the Kentucky Derby parade. I really can’t toss that race because the notes show no real trouble, so can it be contributed to a lack of talent? Perhaps, but I think this is a different animal than it was last November. Since then, he’s won 2 of his 3 efforts as a three-year old, including the Tampa Bay Derby (G-II) and the Pasco with a second place in the Sam F. Davis (G-II). I like the move to the synthetic where this Malibu Moon colt is 2 for 2 both at Woodbine. Regular rider Contreras handles the chores for Canadian conditioner Mark Casse.

 

#6 Dullahan……This boy has been the tout of a lot of sharp cappers this winter. His big win was the Grade I Breeder’s Cup Futurity as a two-year old n this track.  He finished fourth in the BC Juve to the leading triumvirate out by just six lengths. I think he still hasn’t run his best race and maybe today is the day. Dullahan has raced just once as a three-year old and that was a second place finish in the Palm Beach (G-II), a turf race, at Gulfstream.  I think you will see him closing like a freight train trying to run down Hansen and hold off Prospective. He’s huge at 6-1 on the ML and if you can get that price run to the window. Dale Romans trains and that’s worth a lot of points. Kent D. rides.

 

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#2
Posted: 4/14/2012 9:17:03 AM

#10 Howe Great……We’ll find out how great the son of Japanese grass sire Hat Trick (Sunday Silence) is today. He has monster potential with 4 wins in 5 career starts with a second place finish. Howe Great beat Dullahan in his last race in the Palm Beach for his fourth in a row. The last three wins were on the lawn. While he has never run at Keeneland or on this type of surface, there is no reason to think that Howe Great can’t take to it or handle the distance. A contender at 6-1 ML, look for him to be looming.

 

#12 Hero of Order…..A lot to like off his longshot Louisiana Derby (G-II) win just 2 weeks ago earning a 90 Beyer. He beat a decent field that included Mark Valeski and Rousing Sermon. Earlier he finished 4th to El Padrino in the Risen Star. The post might be a bit of a factor, but he is quick out of the gate. Hero of Order might contend for a piece, but a win would be a shocker.

 

#13 Scatman……Too bad he drew so poorly because I think the post aside he would have had greater consideration. However, what he has going for himself today is a win at Keeneland coming out of the 11 post. While there is a world of difference between 11 and 13, he gets out fast and the switch to Shaun Bridgmohan should help. I question whether or not he can sustain the pace for what work he needs to do, but take a good look.

 

#11 Ever So Lucky…..He is about 3 furlongs under the radar for one of the best spot players in the country, Jonathan Sheppard. Ever So Lucky has just three lifetime starts with one win and a second place. That place was to Gemologist losing by just 1-3/4 in the Kentucky Juvenile Cup (G-II). He has Leparoux riding and he’s out of Indian Charlie. Not likely to win, but he could be near at the end at 12-1 on the morning line.

 

#8 Midnight Crooner…..A Baffert “C” player, his only win was on the synthetic at Golden Gate grabbing his best speed figure. I am not sure what the trainer’s end game is here for this guy, but if Baffert entered him, there must be a good reason. Your call.

 

#5 Russian Greek……I have to mention him only because Dorochenko trains and the Russian trainer specializes in entering horses that have no shot…..then pulling off a whopping longshot upset (See his win in the Hatoof last September). Russian Greek is 50-1 and likely has little chance, but this horse fits the Dorochenko profile.

 

 

My picks:

 

Dullahan to win and place…..I think the closing kick is what puts him over the top.

 

$20 Ex straight: 6-4

$20 Ex straight: 4-6

$8 Ex wheel: 4,6/3,10,11

 

$4 Tri wheel: 6/4/3,4,6,8,10,11,12,13

$2 Tri wheel: 4,6/3,4,6,10,11/3,4,6,8,10,11,12,13

 

 

 

 

 

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#3
Posted: 4/14/2012 9:51:40 AM
Great stuff as usual Mikey.  Do you need me to come up there and close for the Cubs?  I'm taking Scatman-even hung out to dry at post 13 but I do think your closer #6 is dangerous.  Give me a 3-4-6-13 box in the exactas and tris.  Good luck.
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#4
Posted: 4/14/2012 10:14:26 AM

Dullahan's late kick concerns me & that he may catching my selection Howe Great. I saw Great a couple of times @ GP & he has a big heart. Love seeing Castellano jumping on today & I agree we'll see Howe Great this guy is..... 

BOL to all..

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#5
Posted: 4/14/2012 10:49:13 AM
I'm on Dullahan but I don't think the odds will be very generous and I'm not willing to bet anything at 4-1 in Bluegrass
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#6
Posted: 4/14/2012 11:18:15 AM

TYGRE.......short of the Good Lord himself coming out of the bullpen, no one will save the Cubs this year.

Good luck with Scatman!

FAT.....our hope for better odds on Dullihan rides on how bet down Hansen might be. I am not sure Dullihan gets 4-1.....3-1 behind a 6-5 Hansen? Keeneland crowd is pretty sharp.....you might see some money on Ever So Lucky and an overbet Midnight Crooner.

 

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#7
Posted: 4/14/2012 11:25:45 AM

I'll go cold exacta Hansen over Ever So Lucky!

 

HB

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#8
Posted: 4/14/2012 12:08:39 PM
Dullahan
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vetdrm
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#9
Posted: 4/14/2012 12:43:55 PM
Dullahan

Here I was thinking this horse would be under the radar coning into the Bluegrass.

But Fridays USA today talks him up pretty good in there cover story and Drf.com's Watchmaker  has this horse as his upsetter.

Thats all well and good but 6-1 which well more likely  be 4-1  post time is not what I wanted.
 
That said  thee owner is intriguing.  A lawyer, who seems to have developed a side hobby in equine genetics.  Worked with bloodstock guys like Sid Fernando and the late Werk----it seems his dream is to breed the 1-1/4 or + mile Classic horse.

Now, that kinda appeals to me, since that doesn't seem like a goal many have these days in the US.  :)

He did okay with Paddy O Prado and now makes a 1/2 bro to Mine that Bird.  Guess derby drreams are really his dreams, not just last minute.  :)

I know this horse LOVES Keenland.  As  a matter of fact, he really is a multi-surface horse, can run on anything.   Dunno whether to be concerned, his latest workout was reported as *blistering*.  Maybe too fast

Prospective

Tampa Bay winner goes from running in a sand box to synthetic.
I like the move and I love the horse with those kind'a odds.

 I have futures on Both thee above so its nice to see them both qualify in May.






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vetdrm
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#10
Posted: 4/14/2012 12:44:56 PM
Ever So Lucky
Just as people seemed to be skeptical about Ill have another
last week,I get the feeling the same can be said about this guy.

I know he didnt look good in the Swale,but he was tough as nails against Gemoligist in only his snd start and now stretching out from 6.5f to 8.5f
Hes worked really well on this surface and could be difficult to reel in.
Heavy Breathing
Wont have to gun it to get to the rail so the one hole is perfect for him.

Hanson
This grey is the best horse in the race and I will be playing against him for today.

#6 Dullahan  win    $50

$1 tri all/ 6/ all    $66

$1 tri box 1,3,4,6  $24

$1 Tri all w/ 3-6 / 3-6
#3 Prospective $20 win Place show
#3  Ex box w/all

1,3,4,6,11 $2 Ex Box and 10 cent super Box

$5 ex box 3-6
$2 exacta all 11

Also boxing the 4 longest odds in  $2 exacta box

Spending a lot today I know

gl everyone

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#11
Posted: 4/14/2012 1:01:17 PM
Good luck VET! I like your comments.
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#12
Posted: 4/14/2012 1:30:30 PM
no scratches according to the Keeneland website
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#13
Posted: 4/14/2012 1:34:59 PM
Dont care for the jock but saw on tv Cassee and he is ultra high on Prospective almost giddy and it is very difficult to mark Cassee excited about anything, hes always all business, never smiles, dresses like hes got four dollars to his name, but was all smiles when asked about this guy. GL guys. 10 -10 30 on the 3.
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#14
Posted: 4/14/2012 2:25:34 PM
Good luck Vet. I am also on Dullahan but will be playing boxes with Holy Candy and Prospective. I have Howe just outside but I will probably use.
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Posted: 4/14/2012 3:14:55 PM

              good stuff, mikey.....   ive had no luck in the derby preps but ill try this.    boxing    #1  heavy breathing who may inherit the lead and go a long way. #3  prospective   who has woodbine  synthetic wins and rarely runs a bad one. #10  howe great ,motion and  castellano , i honestly thought dullahan would have never got to him in the palm beach.  very versatile.   #11  ever so lucky  ,been playing sheppard horses since his days at philly in the 80s, he rarely sends anything that isnt fit and ready.   ,so 1-3-10-11 in exacta and trifecta boxes.  and a exacta  10-11 / 4-6-8-9.

     not thrilled by the games they are trying with hansen, it worked in gotham but this strong field.  and lets finish it out with my saver , dullahan  #6  boxed with 1-3-10-11  just for a buck saver.

 

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Posted: 4/14/2012 3:29:09 PM

In 3 yr. old races I don't pay to much attention to the racing surface and focus more on their speed.  It seems to me that these young athletes run as fast as they can for as far as they can.  Most of these stakes seem to require a Beyer of 90+ to win so I concentrate on those steeds that have run a 90 in the past. I don't like to bet on a horse to do something today unless he has done it in the past. Yes, Hero never ran a 90 until last out and paid over 200 balloons to win. Did you have him? I sure didn't.

On to the Bluegrass

After tossing anything that has yet to run a 90 or better, we are left with Prospective, Hanson, Hero of Order and Scatman IMO. In order of m/l odds let's talk Hanson first.

 Hanson at 6-5 offers no value so I'll pass

Prospective at 10-1 offers value but has lost to Hanson by 20+ lengths so pass again

Hero of Order at 12-1 ran his eyeballs out 2 weeks ago and was life n death in the stretch to hold on so I'll pass on the repeat.

Scatman at 12-1 offers great value and has the top Beyer in the field, gets away from Secret Circle and has a positive jock switch too.

Scatman to win

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Posted: 4/14/2012 3:58:53 PM

G315....Good points. I have somewhat moved on from the surface issues vs. the speed for 3-year olds as the horses are now beginning to "in-bred" more of the poly.

However, I have to take note of those who have done well on the poly vs. their dirt form as it has been my experience at my home track (Arlington Park, which has a quirky poly) of watching horses in the morning who just hate the synthetic. That's one of the reasons I sort of look cross-eyed at first time synthetic racers. It seems that there are fewer and fewer horses  the past two years who won't take to the synthetic, but I still give the experience a point or two in my capping.

You know as much as anyone that some horses can run run on asphalt if they have to and I think Hansen and Dullihan are two of them and there seems to be more and more fitting this form coming up every year.

Good luck today!

 

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#18
Posted: 4/14/2012 6:26:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mikeyp1:

#10 Howe Great……We’ll find out how great the son of Japanese grass sire Hat Trick (Sunday Silence) is today. He has monster potential with 4 wins in 5 career starts with a second place finish. Howe Great beat Dullahan in his last race in the Palm Beach for his fourth in a row. The last three wins were on the lawn. While he has never run at Keeneland or on this type of surface, there is no reason to think that Howe Great can’t take to it or handle the distance. A contender at 6-1 ML, look for him to be looming.

 

#12 Hero of Order…..A lot to like off his longshot Louisiana Derby (G-II) win just 2 weeks ago earning a 90 Beyer. He beat a decent field that included Mark Valeski and Rousing Sermon. Earlier he finished 4th to El Padrino in the Risen Star. The post might be a bit of a factor, but he is quick out of the gate. Hero of Order might contend for a piece, but a win would be a shocker.

 

#13 Scatman……Too bad he drew so poorly because I think the post aside he would have had greater consideration. However, what he has going for himself today is a win at Keeneland coming out of the 11 post. While there is a world of difference between 11 and 13, he gets out fast and the switch to Shaun Bridgmohan should help. I question whether or not he can sustain the pace for what work he needs to do, but take a good look.

 

#11 Ever So Lucky…..He is about 3 furlongs under the radar for one of the best spot players in the country, Jonathan Sheppard. Ever So Lucky has just three lifetime starts with one win and a second place. That place was to Gemologist losing by just 1-3/4 in the Kentucky Juvenile Cup (G-II). He has Leparoux riding and he’s out of Indian Charlie. Not likely to win, but he could be near at the end at 12-1 on the morning line.

 

#8 Midnight Crooner…..A Baffert “C” player, his only win was on the synthetic at Golden Gate grabbing his best speed figure. I am not sure what the trainer’s end game is here for this guy, but if Baffert entered him, there must be a good reason. Your call.

 

#5 Russian Greek……I have to mention him only because Dorochenko trains and the Russian trainer specializes in entering horses that have no shot…..then pulling off a whopping longshot upset (See his win in the Hatoof last September). Russian Greek is 50-1 and likely has little chance, but this horse fits the Dorochenko profile.

 

 

My picks:

 

Dullahan to win and place…..I think the closing kick is what puts him over the top.

 

$20 Ex straight: 6-4

$20 Ex straight: 4-6

$8 Ex wheel: 4,6/3,10,11

 

$4 Tri wheel: 6/4/3,4,6,8,10,11,12,13

$2 Tri wheel: 4,6/3,4,6,10,11/3,4,6,8,10,11,12,13

 

 

 Once again, well done

 

 

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#19
Posted: 4/14/2012 6:26:54 PM

 I think you will see him closing like a freight train trying to run down Hansen

 

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#20
Posted: 4/14/2012 9:01:16 PM

Finishes 6-4-2

NOW WE HAVE A REAL HORSE RACE ON MAY 5!

Thanks for the kind comments, RAM and Kursh

I did screw up by not pressing the ALL button in the third part of my wheel on the 6-4-3 etc. tri and I wrote the 4-6 exacta as a $20 straight and I meant to write $10 Ex straight

 

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#21
Posted: 4/14/2012 9:09:46 PM
Nice capping Mikeyp. You nailed it
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