I have been so cold for so long, I am really starting to think that I am no longer capable of capping MMA at an elite level.
Perhaps, this is the result of:
1. Poor money management, as I have lost just about every big bet I have made since the UFC returned from their March Madness hiatus.
2. Too many fight cards, which stretches my capping time to thin. In addition, too many fighters are now employed on the UFC roster, who really don't belong in the "big show".
3. Fighters evolving to the point where everyone is so well rounded, that any given fighter can win at any given time, and there is no longer really any edge.
Perhaps it is none of these things. All I know is that if I do not turn things around in the next few cards, I think I might be left with no choice but to walk away for a little while, and just watch the fights as a fan.
Regardless, I probably won't be playing much on the UFC 147 card.
I have been so cold for so long, I am really starting to think that I am no longer capable of capping MMA at an elite level.
Perhaps, this is the result of:
1. Poor money management, as I have lost just about every big bet I have made since the UFC returned from their March Madness hiatus.
2. Too many fight cards, which stretches my capping time to thin. In addition, too many fighters are now employed on the UFC roster, who really don't belong in the "big show".
3. Fighters evolving to the point where everyone is so well rounded, that any given fighter can win at any given time, and there is no longer really any edge.
Perhaps it is none of these things. All I know is that if I do not turn things around in the next few cards, I think I might be left with no choice but to walk away for a little while, and just watch the fights as a fan.
Regardless, I probably won't be playing much on the UFC 147 card.
I feel for you buddy.
I definitely think that the fighters are more and more well rounded, making the underdogs capable of winning any fight.
MMA is very tough to bet in comparison to a lot of sports. A big reason being the fact that there are judges. Theres always controversy in olympic sports with judging. IMO a -400 (as an example) in most other sports is safer than a -400 in MMA
I love betting, but I know I don't have the time to invest to be "pro". I know that I'm an everage bettor. So I keep it small. If you do step back, maybe just play smaller. It would keep your pickin ability sharp, win or lose you learn.
keep your head up. You still have everyones respect here, bud
I feel for you buddy.
I definitely think that the fighters are more and more well rounded, making the underdogs capable of winning any fight.
MMA is very tough to bet in comparison to a lot of sports. A big reason being the fact that there are judges. Theres always controversy in olympic sports with judging. IMO a -400 (as an example) in most other sports is safer than a -400 in MMA
I love betting, but I know I don't have the time to invest to be "pro". I know that I'm an everage bettor. So I keep it small. If you do step back, maybe just play smaller. It would keep your pickin ability sharp, win or lose you learn.
keep your head up. You still have everyones respect here, bud
Thanks for the kind words...
I have lost a couple of big bets this year on guys making their UFC debut. In the past, I have had success at hammering a UFC rookie at a cheap price, based on all the research I do, but it is not working this year. I probably should take you advice and scale back on those scenarios...
Thanks for the kind words...
I have lost a couple of big bets this year on guys making their UFC debut. In the past, I have had success at hammering a UFC rookie at a cheap price, based on all the research I do, but it is not working this year. I probably should take you advice and scale back on those scenarios...
I feel for you buddy.
I definitely think that the fighters are more and more well rounded, making the underdogs capable of winning any fight.
MMA is very tough to bet in comparison to a lot of sports. A big reason being the fact that there are judges. Theres always controversy in olympic sports with judging. IMO a -400 (as an example) in most other sports is safer than a -400 in MMA
I love betting, but I know I don't have the time to invest to be "pro". I know that I'm an everage bettor. So I keep it small. If you do step back, maybe just play smaller. It would keep your pickin ability sharp, win or lose you learn.
keep your head up. You still have everyones respect here, bud
I agree with everything you had just said. I was going to take the night off, but I think I am going to make a couple of really small bets on the undercard, and see how things progress from there.
I will start a UFC 147 thread shortly...
I feel for you buddy.
I definitely think that the fighters are more and more well rounded, making the underdogs capable of winning any fight.
MMA is very tough to bet in comparison to a lot of sports. A big reason being the fact that there are judges. Theres always controversy in olympic sports with judging. IMO a -400 (as an example) in most other sports is safer than a -400 in MMA
I love betting, but I know I don't have the time to invest to be "pro". I know that I'm an everage bettor. So I keep it small. If you do step back, maybe just play smaller. It would keep your pickin ability sharp, win or lose you learn.
keep your head up. You still have everyones respect here, bud
I agree with everything you had just said. I was going to take the night off, but I think I am going to make a couple of really small bets on the undercard, and see how things progress from there.
I will start a UFC 147 thread shortly...
I was on Silva in their first fight, and just like Sherdog, I thought he won the fight 29-28.
If this was a 3 round fight, I would probably be on Silva again. However, this is a 5 round fight, and I just don't think Silva has the cardio to go 25 minutes, and I don't think he has what it takes to finish Franklin at this stage of his career. Silva might take 2 out of the first 3 rounds, but I cannot picture him winning a 4th or 5th round. If I play this later on, it will be Franklin or nothing...
I was on Silva in their first fight, and just like Sherdog, I thought he won the fight 29-28.
If this was a 3 round fight, I would probably be on Silva again. However, this is a 5 round fight, and I just don't think Silva has the cardio to go 25 minutes, and I don't think he has what it takes to finish Franklin at this stage of his career. Silva might take 2 out of the first 3 rounds, but I cannot picture him winning a 4th or 5th round. If I play this later on, it will be Franklin or nothing...
Thanks for the strong advice and the kind words...
BTW, I might need you to severly talk me out of hammering a particular dog when I pop by in two weeks....
Thanks for the strong advice and the kind words...
BTW, I might need you to severly talk me out of hammering a particular dog when I pop by in two weeks....
Thanks for the strong advice and the kind words...
BTW, I might need you to severly talk me out of hammering a particular dog when I pop by in two weeks....
Thanks for the strong advice and the kind words...
BTW, I might need you to severly talk me out of hammering a particular dog when I pop by in two weeks....
MR219......hang in there....you know what you are doing. Any interest in just a couple honest 3rd party observations?
Thanks refer...!!!
...and yes, I always appreciate your insight...
MR219......hang in there....you know what you are doing. Any interest in just a couple honest 3rd party observations?
Thanks refer...!!!
...and yes, I always appreciate your insight...
Thanks refer...!!!
...and yes, I always appreciate your insight...
In my opinion there is NO money to be made in MMA parlaying or playing any favorites over $250.....there are to many new names coming into MMA right now that people just dont know about and you end up on the wrong side of bad lines.........there are a ton of examples but people like Jon Jones, Lyota Machida and many of the lighter class fighters. Especially with all the consolidation of fighting organizations people just have way overinflated lines right now on many favorites. I would suggest put more emphasis in capping based on level of past competition and who they have fought, stay away from parlays and only play dogs and fighters under -250 favs. I would be willing to bet if you go back and look at your fight win % you are picking more fights correctly than you are picking wrong yet you are still losing units because of parlays and inflated lines. Just a thought and again said with all the respect in the world, you are to good in analyzing fights to be losing units.
Thanks refer...!!!
...and yes, I always appreciate your insight...
In my opinion there is NO money to be made in MMA parlaying or playing any favorites over $250.....there are to many new names coming into MMA right now that people just dont know about and you end up on the wrong side of bad lines.........there are a ton of examples but people like Jon Jones, Lyota Machida and many of the lighter class fighters. Especially with all the consolidation of fighting organizations people just have way overinflated lines right now on many favorites. I would suggest put more emphasis in capping based on level of past competition and who they have fought, stay away from parlays and only play dogs and fighters under -250 favs. I would be willing to bet if you go back and look at your fight win % you are picking more fights correctly than you are picking wrong yet you are still losing units because of parlays and inflated lines. Just a thought and again said with all the respect in the world, you are to good in analyzing fights to be losing units.
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