Posted: 4/26/2012 4:18:25 PM
#9 - Lost ground in the middle stages but gained in the stretch
"A horse may be shuffled back by heavy traffic after a good start. If it at least regains the lost ground it demonstrates the willingness and condition that wins races. In seeking this angle - known to old time punters as the "Up and Down System", little attention need to be paid to running position. Lengths behind the leader are more important, although it is nice to note that the horse managed to pass others while closing in on the leader."
Done Talking lost 4.5 lengths between the 1st and 2nd call of the Illinois Derby and came back and won the race. From 8.5 lengths behind to 13 lengths behind.
Something happened entering the far turn. He either got cut off, got shuffled, got caught in a blindswitch (another Ainslie term - means surrounded by horses with no where to go), brushed with the horse inside of him. Not sure what it was but he had started a strong move and it was stopped abruptly. And the horse came back from that.
Only problem with that though is he got a career high Brisnet fig for that race and the jockey was absolutely whipping the piss out of him coming down the stretch. Might bounce. He was all out.
His Remsen Stakes was also a better than it looks race because the pace of that race according to Brisnet Race Shapes was -14 to the half and -16 the the 6 furlongs. That's 7 fifths and 8 fifths slow and he almost won that one also. He displayed another Ainslie Plus Factor in that one.
#8 - Lost Last Race But Gained In The Stretch
"If the result chart or past performance line says "rallied" , "just missed", or "finished fast" and the horse picked up at least 2 lengths in the stretch, it may do better today. Unless of course the effort dulled it's form (which the player should have noticed when analyzing the form factor)."
Done Talking picked up 4 lengths in the stretch in the Remsen against a slow pace and from dead last place and the comment says "rallied" but it's not his last race anymore. Just another sign that was a good race though by him. He had no chance to bounce after that one because he went on a 3 month layoff after that race.
Both of those races were 9 furlongs , the Derby is 10 furlongs.
So two of his last three races were very impressive and the one in between can be thrown out because that was his first off a layoff.
MIght be a better horse than he's getting credit for but I think people have been disrespecting the running time of The Illinois Derby or something.
TIME IS ONLY IMPORTANT IN PRISON
Check Done Talking out on video if you have access.