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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: May 6 Mariners vs Minnesota
3825 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#1
Posted: 5/6/2012 12:42:26 PM
Good thing I sat out last night's game, i would have likely been on the under 6.5 and would have seen that ticket end with the same results as my Derby tickets.

I will start with the under again today, neither of these offenses is very good, and I think both pitchers are not as bad as they seem this season.

If I can project one or the other starters to be bad today, then I may also find myself on the ML of the opposite team.
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#2
Posted: 5/6/2012 12:45:24 PM
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#3
Posted: 5/6/2012 12:45:53 PM
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#4
Posted: 5/6/2012 12:56:17 PM
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#5
Posted: 5/6/2012 1:12:16 PM
Mariners Lineup
2B  Ackley
SS  Ryan
RF  Ichiro
DH  Montero
3B  Seager
C    Jaso
1B  Smoak
LF  Carp
CF  Saunders
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#6
Posted: 5/6/2012 3:14:49 PM
if my mats is correct, the twins have scored in just 2 of their last 45 innings at the plate.  Friday night, and last monday.
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#7
Posted: 5/6/2012 3:18:29 PM
Twins Lineup
CF  Span
SS  Carroll
C    Mauer
LF  Willingham
DH  Doumit
1B  Parmelee
3B  Valencia
RF  Komatsu
2B  Casilla

Also, Moreau to the DL
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#8
Posted: 5/6/2012 3:22:32 PM
Mike Everitt is the scheduled home plate umpire,  which won't hurt a play on the under today.  Everitt is above average in strike% and has a correlated over-under record, 7 games to the under since 2008.  Certainly not enough to make a play based on that fact, but a nice little helper if one is already projecting an under.
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#9
Posted: 5/6/2012 3:31:05 PM
I'm not finding enough reason to back away from an under 7.5 play.  i would get a 25 cent price break to push the 7, but i like the extra room today,  if this game goes under, i'd expect 4-6 total runs, unlike last monday, when i expected a very low scoring game, and didn't feel the need to pay from extra room on my total play.
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#10
Posted: 5/6/2012 3:41:31 PM
i will be on the under 7.5,  but will wait a bit to see if there is enough people out there looking at the ERA's for Noesi and Blackburn and thiking the over is a steal at +110, and maybe we'll get a nickel or dime's worth of reduction in the cost to back the under.
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#11
Posted: 5/6/2012 3:49:16 PM
what about taking mariners? these two pitchers will pitch well, i guess, but morneau-less twins at safeco field with this odds, worth taking mariners. i actually put my money in rockies +1.5 & yankees 9.5 over, so i won't take this game, but as far as i see, mariners will take this game at any rate. slightly better
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#12
Posted: 5/6/2012 3:51:57 PM
0.91 Units at -120 on Under 7.5 today.
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#13
Posted: 5/6/2012 3:52:43 PM
Season Record:  7-10  -0.77 Units
Average Price:    +118
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#14
Posted: 5/6/2012 4:35:41 PM
It's tough for me to lay much juice to back the Mariners ML unless i can find a clear and decisive advantage on the mound.   the mariners offense is just too flaky and unpredictable, they simply come and go with little explanation . . . that being said, a Mariners ML play would be looking pretty good from a top second point of view.
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#15
Posted: 5/6/2012 4:46:36 PM
Blackburn sucks today. 
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#16
Posted: 5/6/2012 5:33:10 PM
COCKBURN
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#17
Posted: 5/6/2012 5:41:36 PM
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#18
Posted: 5/6/2012 5:52:35 PM
i think this game will be UNDER if no errors are commited by two teams. i took mariners ML for friggin rockies +1.5, and i should give some credit to mariners. this team lost in tampa, but 3 of 4 games there were 1 run game. mariners will produce some runs a while, they DID it last year. mariners are quite young so if they have momentum, they will play pretty good baseball, which fucked many cappers last year.
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#19
Posted: 5/6/2012 6:42:31 PM
Nice Call Sir, Followed you on that one, i got a little nervous but we cashed!!
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#20
Posted: 5/6/2012 6:44:52 PM
You got lucky, is all.
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