NRL Plays (Round Twenty-Three)...

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Author: [Rugby] Topic: NRL Plays (Round Twenty-Three)...
emkee PM emkee
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Posted: 8/11/2012 7:36:23 PM
The Dogs have won all 15 matches this season scoring 20 points or more and have lost all five when they've been held to less than 20 points...
snake2710 PM snake2710
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Posted: 8/11/2012 7:40:28 PM
Broncos do have good D. I think that game will be unders game but not going to make that  a play
davopnz PM davopnz
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Posted: 8/11/2012 8:20:07 PM
i was leaning broncs...but now that i see they are getting some love i feel like maybe i should just go back to my doggies
rod_steel PM rod_steel
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Posted: 8/11/2012 8:24:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by davopnz:

i was leaning broncs...but now that i see they are getting some love i feel like maybe i should just go back to my doggies


You said the same thing about the Sea Eagles my man
emkee PM emkee
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Posted: 8/11/2012 8:31:39 PM
adding...

Brisbane Broncos at Canterbury Bulldogs

The play...

Bulldogs -6.5 $1.70 (3 units)

Playing the alternate line at a little used book that has a surprisingly good line given they usually have the worst. Doncos are missing tackles at a phenomenal rate the last 4 games and have often looked completely lost when on attack, not a good combo when you're playing the benchmark team in the comp. Dogs can go along way to wrapping up the Minor Premiership with a win here and should be up for it given the competition. Dogs have only won a game by less than 8 points once during their current winning run. Concerns though are obviously complacency and the refs sticking one up Dessie given his underwhelming comments directed at their fraternity last week but these teams are on vastly different sides of the 'equilibrium' when it comes to form right now...


emkee PM emkee
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Posted: 8/11/2012 8:33:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rod_steel:



You said the same thing about the Sea Eagles my man


That he did. Betting solely against 'love' is often a quick route to the poorhouse...
davopnz PM davopnz
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Posted: 8/11/2012 8:39:34 PM
Lol it's not solely against love. Its that combined with the fact that the bulldogs are a better team, i don't know whether the broncos will come to play or not etc etc that combined with people touching the broncs instead of the dogs concerns me.
rod_steel PM rod_steel
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Posted: 8/11/2012 8:43:06 PM
Doggies without their best forward (yes Rostos it's Graham ) is a BIG loss

But the Donkeys have been so bad they are bordering on Eels early season form....
davopnz PM davopnz
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Posted: 8/11/2012 9:00:56 PM
where did you read that rod?

its a tough call for sure.

do you like the under 42.5?
emkee PM emkee
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Posted: 8/11/2012 9:01:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by davopnz:

Lol it's not solely against love. Its that combined with the fact that the bulldogs are a better team, i don't know whether the broncos will come to play or not etc etc that combined with people touching the broncs instead of the dogs concerns me.


If lots of peeps were touching the Doncs the line wouldn't have hit 10 after it opened at 8. Would say the 'love' is with the Dogs and rightly so given the last few weeks...
snake2710 PM snake2710
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Posted: 8/11/2012 9:09:25 PM
Under is the right play but it is one of them games that could open up easy enough and yield a lot of points
Jive_Turkey PM Jive_Turkey
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Posted: 8/11/2012 9:13:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by emkee:

adding...

Brisbane Broncos at Canterbury Bulldogs

The play...

Bulldogs -6.5 $1.70 (3 units)

Playing the alternate line at a little used book that has a surprisingly good line given they usually have the worst. Doncos are missing tackles at a phenomenal rate the last 4 games and have often looked completely lost when on attack, not a good combo when you're playing the benchmark team in the comp. Dogs can go along way to wrapping up the Minor Premiership with a win here and should be up for it given the competition. Dogs have only won a game by less than 8 points once during their current winning run. Concerns though are obviously complacency and the refs sticking one up Dessie given his underwhelming comments directed at their fraternity last week but these teams are on vastly different sides of the 'equilibrium' when it comes to form right now...



Am on the same alt line (albeit not as good a price as you got) being a bit of a box because I pegged the line at -16 for this one, but am allergic to laying double digit starts. 

Biggest play of the season for me. Can read the signs with this broncos side as a 'fan' of the club and picked this terminal slide was about to set in after their loss to the titans. 

In fact, the generous odds for them missing the 8 are worth a shot IMO as I don't think they'll win another game in 2012 
emkee PM emkee
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Posted: 8/11/2012 9:13:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rod_steel:

Doggies without their best forward (yes Rostos it's Graham ) is a BIG loss

But the Donkeys have been so bad they are bordering on Eels early season form....


Let's not forget the Doncs are missing Alex Glenn which is fairly significant for a side struggling to score.

'The numbers from round 15 to round 22 reflect a side low on confidence and momentum, with their attack dropping to be the least-potent in the competition with just 13 points per game as offloads, tackle busts and linebreaks decreased alarmingly.'


emkee PM emkee
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Posted: 8/11/2012 9:21:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jive_Turkey:


Am on the same alt line (albeit not as good a price as you got) being a bit of a box because I pegged the line at -16 for this one, but am allergic to laying double digit starts. 

Biggest play of the season for me. Can read the signs with this broncos side as a 'fan' of the club and picked this terminal slide was about to set in after their loss to the titans. 

In fact, the generous odds for them missing the 8 are worth a shot IMO as I don't think they'll win another game in 2012 



davopnz PM davopnz
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Posted: 8/11/2012 9:21:27 PM
i'm rather torn on this one
Luckylunchbox PM Luckylunchbox
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Posted: 8/11/2012 9:29:59 PM
dogs 
emkee PM emkee
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Posted: 8/11/2012 9:34:39 PM
As for the other game...

Lean Raiders but the negative trends against them are quite alarming.

Trend recap:

Raiders 6-19 ATS as a favorite since 2010.

Raiders are 9-21 ATS in day games the last 3 seasons.

Raiders are 2-11 SU last 13 away games on Sunday.

Raiders have not won two consecutive Sunday games since 2003.

Panthers 6-0 SU last 6 the following game after conceding 40+ points.

Now watch them win by 30...


Rostos PM Rostos
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Posted: 8/11/2012 10:41:36 PM

Dogs have only conceeded 4 tries in the last 20 minutes of games all year....That trend continued last week......

Grab the under.......

Broncos struggling to score, trying to turn that around against my doggies is not a good idea

Jive_Turkey PM Jive_Turkey
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Posted: 8/11/2012 10:43:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by emkee:



Let's not forget the Doncs are missing Alex Glenn which is fairly significant for a side struggling to score.

'The numbers from round 15 to round 22 reflect a side low on confidence and momentum, with their attack dropping to be the least-potent in the competition with just 13 points per game as offloads, tackle busts and linebreaks decreased alarmingly.'



Very significant OUT for the broncos - Glen has been the only player providing anything remotely resembling spark over the last few weeks, all the more shameful given he's a back rower 
Jive_Turkey PM Jive_Turkey
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Posted: 8/11/2012 10:45:33 PM
^ Hoffman the fullback also dumped from the team this week after turning up late to weights - things coming apart at the seams a bit in brisbane
davopnz PM davopnz
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Posted: 8/11/2012 10:46:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Rostos:

Dogs have only conceeded 4 tries in the last 20 minutes of games all year....That trend continued last week......

Grab the under.......

Broncos struggling to score, trying to turn that around against my doggies is not a good idea



got a lean on the side?


what do you think about the raiders game also
Rostos PM Rostos
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Posted: 8/11/2012 11:07:05 PM

Davo.......

The Panthers game is a real tricky one.....Raiders are not worth it at $1.75....the Panthers copped a pasting last week.....They will be up for this at home....

The best bet here is an in game bet.......

As for the dogs, complacency is the big one here.......I dont believe the statement by Emkee that the carrot of the minor premiship is going to motivate them any more.

I simply remember 2 games that i have attended in the past

1. In 09 when my Dogs on a Friday night simply had to win and we win the minor premiership. We were playing in rnd 26 against the tigs who were done for the year. We just had to win and we win the MP...Well, we got throttled.

2. I believe it was 02....Manly played Penrith at fortress Brooky on a packed Sunday arvo......Mnaly just had to win, and they make the 8. No ifs or buts. The Panthers were last that year and had already claimed the spoon. It was also rnd 26. Manly just had to win and they make the 8 against a woeful Panthers team...

The half time score was Penrith 46 Manly 6.......

There were reports that Peter Sharp (then Manly coach) came into the sheds at half time and told them to go get fucked and walked out....

It is hard to compare years and we are different under sir des, but you cant use they have to win as a reason to back  a team...

Jive_Turkey PM Jive_Turkey
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Posted: 8/12/2012 3:01:23 AM
darn I hate betting favourites 

But all's well that ends well 
emkee PM emkee
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Posted: 8/12/2012 4:00:39 AM
Never in doubt Jive, never in doubt...


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