Django's AFL 2012 thread

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Author: [Other] Topic: Django's AFL 2012 thread
yysmer PM yysmer
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quote#301
Posted: 7/27/2012 10:11:10 PM
I'm on Cats -7.5. Good luck guys.
HeadOverHeart PM HeadOverHeart
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quote#302
Posted: 7/28/2012 1:41:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by yysmer:

Why change your play? Isn't that line movement significant? Odds makers always know 10 times more than us average bettors.


Like when they set Gold Coast getting 38.5 against Richmond?

Or Sydney getting 18.5 against Hawthorn.

Or Sydney getting 8.5 against Essendon.

Or Sydney getting 9.5 against West Coast.

No they don't.  They know just as much as the regular educated Joe Punter.  "Educated" being the key word.

The only advantages they have is in the player personnel game and the inside behind closed doors info that leaks out and their office spies ear in on.
yysmer PM yysmer
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quote#303
Posted: 7/28/2012 2:24:38 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:



Like when they set Gold Coast getting 38.5 against Richmond?

Or Sydney getting 18.5 against Hawthorn.

Or Sydney getting 8.5 against Essendon.

Or Sydney getting 9.5 against West Coast.

No they don't.  They know just as much as the regular educated Joe Punter.  "Educated" being the key word.

The only advantages they have is in the player personnel game and the inside behind closed doors info that leaks out and their office spies ear in on.


They can't be 100% accurate that's for sure, but if you think they know only as much as we do, then we have nothing to discuss here.
HeadOverHeart PM HeadOverHeart
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quote#304
Posted: 7/28/2012 4:01:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by yysmer:



They can't be 100% accurate that's for sure, but if you think they know only as much as we do, then we have nothing to discuss here.


They are highly educated in what they do and that is the key.  Besides the closed-door info they get leaked, what they know is attainable to anyone else if they get learned up.  Most punters don't bother with this fact though.
Django PM Django
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quote#305
Posted: 7/28/2012 4:39:38 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:

Crows +8.5 1u @ 1.92


53-69-0 | Multi 0-5
-1.23

Richmond vs Carlton Under 185.5 1u @ 1.91

Who were you referring to changing their play? I picked Crows earlier in the week in the opening lines thread.


Django PM Django
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quote#306
Posted: 7/28/2012 5:34:21 AM
Weather is fine on the Gold Coast, Swans win big

Swans -50.5 1u @ 2.04
Django PM Django
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quote#307
Posted: 7/28/2012 8:26:55 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:

Swans -50.5 1u @ 2.04

Richmond vs Carlton Under 185.5 1u @ 1.91

Tinass goal by Carlton in dying minutes puts the total on 186, which I could have taken 186.5 on titanbet for 1.83



54-70-0 | Multi 0-5
-1.19

Fremantle 1u -8.5 @ 1.91

Django PM Django
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quote#308
Posted: 7/28/2012 7:15:28 PM
Eagles -35.5 1u @ 1.95
(Lions will screw me and lose by 35)

Saints -34.5 1u @ 1.91

Django PM Django
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quote#309
Posted: 7/29/2012 9:16:24 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:



Fremantle 1u -8.5 @ 1.91

Saints -34.5 1u @ 1.91

Eagles -35.5 1u @ 1.95



57-70-0 | Multi 0-5
+1.58
HeadOverHeart PM HeadOverHeart
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quote#310
Posted: 7/29/2012 2:16:03 PM
Nice call on the Weagles.  I got fancy smasnsy.  Haha.





Hahaha....
Django PM Django
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quote#311
Posted: 8/2/2012 8:07:31 PM
Hawks have been garbage hot but Cats are their bogey side. Scarlett and Pods back, no Buddy for the Hawks. Cats can win this su.

Cats +25.5 1u @ 1.92
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quote#312
Posted: 8/2/2012 8:13:47 PM
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quote#313
Posted: 8/3/2012 2:08:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:


Cats +25.5 1u @ 1.92


58-70-0 | Multi 0-5
+2.50
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quote#314
Posted: 8/3/2012 9:00:46 PM
North -50.5 1u @ 1.98

Roos vs Dogs > Drew Petrie: Most Goals 1u @ $3

Eagles 1-39 1u @ 2.32

Collingwood 1-39 1u @ 2.25

Brisbane Lions +8.5 1u @ 1.96
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quote#315
Posted: 8/4/2012 12:01:25 AM
Ugh I have a feeling North are going to struggle to win this let alone cover and wouldn't ya know it, Petrie is playing with a virus. Aids.
bevoaustintx PM bevoaustintx
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quote#316
Posted: 8/4/2012 2:24:12 AM
Easy cover :-)
Posted using a mobile device.
Django PM Django
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quote#317
Posted: 8/4/2012 2:38:32 AM
I'd written it off given my recent luck when Dogs got down to 48 with a few mins to go.

It wasn't looking good, thankfully Petrie's illness didn't hinder him and he topped most goals with 5 too
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quote#318
Posted: 8/4/2012 2:51:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:

North -50.5 1u @ 1.98

Roos vs Dogs > Drew Petrie: Most Goals 1u @ $3



60-70-0 | Multi 0-5
+5.48


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quote#319
Posted: 8/4/2012 2:31:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:


Eagles 1-39 1u @ 2.32

Collingwood 1-39 1u @ 2.25

Brisbane Lions +8.5 1u @ 1.96


61-72-0 | Multi 0-5
+4.73


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quote#320
Posted: 8/4/2012 3:01:31 PM
Swans -16.5 2u @ 1.91
Swans -39.5 .5u @ 3.80
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quote#321
Posted: 8/4/2012 4:46:04 PM
Crows -39.5 1u @ 2.50
Django PM Django
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quote#322
Posted: 8/4/2012 11:09:26 PM
Suns ML 1u @ 3.20
G Ablett Most Goals 1u @ 7.50

Suns ML 3.20
Crows -39.5 2.50
Swans -39.5 3.50
x3 .2 @ 28
Django PM Django
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quote#323
Posted: 8/4/2012 11:56:18 PM
That's supposed to only be .5 on the Ablett Most Goals prop
bevoaustintx PM bevoaustintx
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quote#324
Posted: 8/5/2012 12:54:42 AM
On Sydney just not.posting tonight
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Django PM Django
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quote#325
Posted: 8/5/2012 3:49:41 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:



Swans -16.5 2u @ 1.91
Swans -39.5 .5u @ 3.80

Suns ML 1u @ 3.20
G Ablett Most Goals .5u @ 7.50

Suns ML 3.20
Crows -39.5 2.50
Swans -39.5 3.50
x3 .2 @ 28


62-75-0 | Multi 0-6
+4.35

Crows aren't gonna cover either

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