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Author: [College Football] Topic: 2012 College Football Preseason Discussion
jdnmoney send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#51
Posted: 7/10/2012 1:27:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BamaPiks:

Yeah, I totally made a mistake with my post jdnmoney did not type those posts. However, I do agree with them.

I don't have a vendetta against you. I don't know you. Life's too short to hate someone or have vendettas!

It was my mistake. I'm dropping my argument with you but I am 99.9% confident that by mid-season your AU post will be completely wrong. However, BOL to you this season.



now thats a better way to disagree. my assessment of auburn in april might be way off. im not necessarily that confident that auburn will win 7 or 8 games. i just made one statement.

please beware of making posts such as "does anyone actually follow the OP of this thread"

as that can really piss people off and calling out cappers who post week after week of winning plays is not in your favor either.

ill tell you what man. ill forget this first interaction and we can part as friends. even if we disagree slightly about auburn
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#52
Posted: 7/10/2012 1:39:18 AM
I will disagree with you all season on your AU opinion. However, Bol to you. I'm not going to argue with someone that seems as passionate ab CF and betting as much as I do. We both have a right to an opinion and we both have a right to disagree. Take care and BOL this season.

P.S. although, I stand by my opinion on AU winning no more than 8 games this year. I will admit my pure hatred for their program raised my BP when I saw your post.

The one thing you will find out about me...I have no problem admitting when I'm wrong or when I make a mistake. I try to be a realist in my professional career and with anything i am passionate about. BOL and kill em' this season.
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#53
Posted: 7/10/2012 2:06:33 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BamaPiks:

I will disagree with you all season on your AU opinion. However, Bol to you. I'm not going to argue with someone that seems as passionate ab CF and betting as much as I do. We both have a right to an opinion and we both have a right to disagree. Take care and BOL this season.

P.S. although, I stand by my opinion on AU winning no more than 8 games this year. I will admit my pure hatred for their program raised my BP when I saw your post.

The one thing you will find out about me...I have no problem admitting when I'm wrong or when I make a mistake. I try to be a realist in my professional career and with anything i am passionate about. BOL and kill em' this season.

How in the hell will Auburn win 8 games???  Not a chance.  Right out of the gate they have Clemson (Loss), Mississippi State Loss), LSU (Blowout Loss), Arkansas (Loss)  That 1 & 4 to start the season.  Auburn's high water mark is probably 6 & 6.

 

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#54
Posted: 7/10/2012 8:55:37 AM
I agree with your statement. I said no more than 8 (meaning maximum). I personally feel they will win 7. However, there is luck, the ball bouncing one's way, etc...! Therefore, to be as safe and give my most accurate opinion I feel like you need to take all of those factors into account.
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#55
Posted: 7/10/2012 9:29:39 PM
Savannah State vs OK St. 
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i would bet this line up to OKST -50...

Savannah state has had 11 strait losing seasons, and have NEVER faced a team at the FBS (D-1A) level
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#56
Posted: 7/10/2012 9:32:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

How in the hell will Auburn win 8 games???  Not a chance.  Right out of the gate they have Clemson (Loss), Mississippi State Loss), LSU (Blowout Loss), Arkansas (Loss)  That 1 & 4 to start the season.  Auburn's high water mark is probably 6 & 6.

 


They are going to have an awful season
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#57
Posted: 7/10/2012 9:34:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney:

Just dove into the Phil Steele CFB preview.
82 days away, no big deal. 

Games that i am interested in for wk 1. (LINE GUESSES)


  • La Tech @ Texas A&M      LaTech+16 O/U 58
  • Marshall @ W. Va- Already locked in Marshall +22 on 5Dimes (now at 20.5)
  • W. Michigan @ Illinois      WMU +12.5, O/U 52.5
  • UCF @ Akron      UCF-18 O/U 47
  • Ark St @ Oregon     DoubleUp4Life has a guess of 41. I respectfully disagree. I would LOVE to see 41, because i think this game will be kept within 20-25, something like 48-28. I really  think the line is closer to Ark St +26.5 O/U 71.5
  • Toledo @ Arizona     TOL+9 O/U 61
  • Washington St @ BYU     WSU +10.5 O/U 55.5
USC vs Hawaii   USC -37 O/U 66.5

Cannot wait for August 30th  


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#58
Posted: 7/11/2012 9:14:04 AM
Auburn has a brutal schedule 6-6 , maybe 7-5 ??
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#59
Posted: 7/11/2012 9:35:54 AM
Agreed!
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#60
Posted: 7/12/2012 8:09:54 PM
Savannah State vs OK St. 
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i would bet this line up to OKST -50...

Savannah state has had 11 strait losing seasons, and have NEVER faced a team at the FBS (D-1A) level
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#61
Posted: 7/12/2012 11:19:10 PM
Savannah state has not beaten a team at the D-1AA level since 2004.


they have only been victorious vs. No. Carolina Central (D-2) and several NAIA schools.


not one win vs. a team in their own level in over 8 years. yikes. that would be like akron going 0-12 for 8 consecutive years.

OK St. -50 looks really good if that is anywhere close to what it is
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#62
Posted: 7/13/2012 1:15:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney:

Savannah state has not beaten a team at the D-1AA level since 2004.


they have only been victorious vs. No. Carolina Central (D-2) and several NAIA schools.


not one win vs. a team in their own level in over 8 years. yikes. that would be like akron going 0-12 for 8 consecutive years.

OK St. -50 looks really good if that is anywhere close to what it is


man you are loving that OSU beatdown........

bad news?.....you're gonna have to pay a price .....and lay 55 or so at -120....if it's any lower you might be right....it could be (believe it or not).....the value play of week 1
as Okie St is at least 75 pts better.......

closest I can remember.....Ducks LY week 3 or so laying 56 to Mizz St.....who is at least 25 pts better than SSU
    *2011 Steele ranked Mizz St 35 pts better than SSU.....

good news you should win.....SSU D loses top 2 tacklers from a D that gave up 40 pts and 6.5/play and 5.5/rush to FCS teams 
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#63
Posted: 7/13/2012 11:19:46 AM
oregon in 2010 played portland state and they were -55,

they won the game 69-0

it was 45-0 at half.

oregon outgained them 668 (538 rushing!) to 140


this game will have a bigger disparity if you can believe that.
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#64
Posted: 7/13/2012 11:24:46 AM
while I love Oklahoma St this season ... I do not see this game being in the rotation week 1.... even on 5 dimes
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#65
Posted: 7/14/2012 4:30:58 PM

Games that i am interested in for wk 1. (LINE GUESSES)
  • La Tech @ Texas A&M      LaTech+16 O/U 58
  • Marshall @ W. Va- Already locked in Marshall +22 on 5Dimes (now at 20.5)
  • W. Michigan @ Illinois      WMU +12.5O/U 52.5
  • UCF @ Akron      UCF-18 O/U 47
  • Ark St @ Oregon     DoubleUp4Life has a guess of 41. I respectfully disagree. I would LOVE to see 41, because i think this game will be kept within 20-25, something like 48-28. I really  think the line is closer to Ark St +26.5 O/U 71.5
  • Toledo @ Arizona     TOL+9 O/U 61
  • Washington St @ BYU     WSU +10.5 O/U 55.5
USC vs Hawaii   USC -37 O/U 66.5

JDN do you have a stack rank of your bets? I.e. which is your #1 through #N? If so could I see which you like the most?

UCF @ Akron
Do you trust that UCF team AT Akron?
-Akron sucks
-UCF hasn't proven to be dependable or consistent
-Akron really really sucks
-UCF has Ohio State on deck?
-I like UCF but I'm starting to research the next few weeks etc. and I'm not sold on UCF away at -18 even though this should be a blowout.

Hawaii @ USC
-this one just has blowout all over it... even though Lane seems like a clown coach... nice 2-point attemps
-3rd year and I think there overall offense & defense vs. Hawaii coaching / player turnover will be a beatdown

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#66
Posted: 7/14/2012 8:34:07 PM
buddychow:

UCF could play poorly and still cover a number in the area of -18.
Hard to believe but akron might be worse than last year. they are going to be very stagnent on offense in this game as they are learning a new offense and i suspect the offensive line to struggle mightily. 

Akron might be ok on defense against lower tier MAC foes, but at this point they have lost their top 2 tacklers from LY and are looking to fill voids on defensive line and LB. 


UCF has a very experienced OL with 89 career starts returning along with the addition of GT transfer Phil Smith. they have thier top 3 pass catchers back and Very highly regarded miami transfer Storm Johnson playing running back with Brynn Harvery as well, who already has an 1100 yard season to his name. 


i see a matchup of two teams in totally different classes talent wise in this game. 

UCF could win 10 games this year, Akron could win 2. 

this will potentially be close in the 1st half, but UCF should pull away convincingly and win by at least 4 touchdowns. i dont even see garbage time being a factor. 

i will name the score here, 35-6
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#67
Posted: 7/14/2012 8:42:01 PM
buddychow: 

i dont have anything ranked yet because i can only guess at lines and totals at this point. OTHER than marshall vs W. Va. i have had that locked in at Marshall +22 since april, as i feel they will be vastly improved from last year. Their history when playing Wva. has gone like this recently, 

2007   Lost 23-48 @ +25  PUSH
2008   Lost 3-27 @ +14   Failed to cover
2009   Lost 7-24 @ +20 Covered the spread
2010   Lost 21-24 @ +12 Covered the spread
2011   Lost 13-34 @ +23 (game was shortened due to lightning, no bet as the game didnt exceed 55 mins)


i think too many points are given in this rivalry game, and i know WVa is projected to be very good, but i can see them significantly overlooking Marshal, esp. with the move to the new conference, 

at this point based on my guesses, i LOVE these games (in order)

1. Hawaii up to -37
2. UCF - up to 22, but currently projected at -18
3. Ark St vs Oregon OVER up to 73
4. La Tech vs A&M OVER up to 58.5
5. W. Michigan +12.5
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#68
Posted: 7/14/2012 8:58:38 PM

JDN- nice record last year! BOL this year I know you'll kill em.

Quick question... I noticed a couple months ago you said you liked Michigan like at +14.5 or somewhere around there. At this point do you still like michigan? I originally thought the same way as you did. I figured Denard and co. could keep it respectable. Until I really started thinking Im not too sure how they could put up points against Bama.Sure this isnt the same Bama squad as last year but hey Bama is Bama. They can recruit! I think Bama will be thoroughly prepared for this squad. They will contain Denard and from what I saw last year, Denards pocket presence isnt the best. I see him throwing at least 2 ints game 1. He can scramble, he's athletic and all but these days I just see Bama surprising us as I could totally see the public jumping on Michigan especially above 14 points. Your current thoughts/perspective on this game is appreciated bro

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#69
Posted: 7/14/2012 9:19:47 PM
i wouldnt bet it at +10. it actually started at Mich +15.5 and has come down 5.5 points. that is huge movement...

i am actually going to the game down in texas on sept 1st and i am very interested to see both teams. 

at this point i would hold off, and hope it gets back to 14, but i think that is wishful thinking. 



might throw it in a 2 team teaser or something like that, but at this point there will be much better value. 

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#70
Posted: 7/14/2012 9:21:10 PM
buddychow:

add Oklahoma state -55 to that list (again, projected)


if they line this game and it is less than 49 i will make it a MONSTER PLAY, but otherwise it will be a standard wager. 

read thru the thread if you arent aware of savannah state and how bad  they are at the d-1aa level. 
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#71
Posted: 7/14/2012 9:42:57 PM
i hear you man the bama tease > laying DD
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#72
Posted: 7/15/2012 12:00:21 PM

POSTED BY JIMMYDAFREAK

we must decide if we are going to strive to be success gamblers or fans. Are we going to let our homerisms and biases adversely effect our bottom line???

THATS WHY THEY SAY NEVER BET WITH YOUR HEART...DONT BET ON THE TEAM THAT YOU LOVE!

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#73
Posted: 7/15/2012 2:48:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Capper007:

POSTED BY JIMMYDAFREAK

we must decide if we are going to strive to be success gamblers or fans. Are we going to let our homerisms and biases adversely effect our bottom line???

THATS WHY THEY SAY NEVER BET WITH YOUR HEART...DONT BET ON THE TEAM THAT YOU LOVE!




did i ever once say that i was betting on a team that I love?

or what is the reason for this post?


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#74
Posted: 7/15/2012 3:28:55 PM
jdnmoney- thanks for additional info, i'm finishing up my spreadsheet and I'll put it up for comments soon.

Just wanted to get some extra eyes on the bad teams- like most i'm a big fan of the chalk in the first few weeks. (it's done me well over the last few years)

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