Joined: Dec 2007
|Some interesting fights tonight, if nothing else.
Posted: 4/20/2012 7:56:17 PM
Hearns v Lara over 7.5, +135, large. Truax v Taylor won't go the distance, +155, moderate.
Joined: Jul 2002
Location: New York
Posted: 4/20/2012 8:30:24 PM
First of all, let me say it's good to see an old face posting some boxing
I agree with your over bet as Laras' coming off a 9 month layoff and he's moving up tonight. The only thing that concerns me is Hearns was stopped by Sturm in the 7th last fight.
I just don't get why Taylor still gets TV exposure GL Everyone
Joined: May 2011
Location: New York
|Lara proved himself against Williams. Watching Hearns clips years ago, he showed very little. I didn't expect 1st round stop, but as anyone who reads my posts knows I'm against betting overs as besides pure KOs, cuts, DQs, etc... happen often.
Posted: 4/22/2012 5:07:27 AM
It's like betting under in College Football. Whenever you get PK'em to 3 or 4 point favorites, even 7 up to 10, (although I don't believe in systems, more like special criteria that stands out) I often try to find games that have accurate totals with lines predicting PK to 4 point (up to 7 points), also after 3 games played as linemakers get more accurate as the season goes on. Meaning that with accurate totals you will average 50% winners regardless of the team spread. Now, when game are considered to be close, the advantage the player has is very high.
I use the same type criteria for middling (usually on NFL for two reason: 1) NFL lines are the most accurate of all sports. 2) After the first quarter of the season, linemakers have a much higher accuracy rate for having enough objective and subjective information at this time period in the season as starting QB's are adjusting along with the rest of the offense. Also, the defense finally adjusts to all the new types of offensive styles and roster settings are just about where they need to be and now it's time to refine all areas.
So, after week four, lines from Picks, 3, 4, 6, and 7 (I avoid 7, 10, 11, 14, 17 and 21, if they are accurate about being dominating then it could be a rout!). Middles are always best from (week 5 or 6) game 5 to game 13 (you need adjustment time, and late season teams pull players that have clinched and others are playing all-out wild to get into play-offs.). In between is consistent and getting lines early to bet so to avoid large vigs when betting later or adding points.
IMPORTANT: Depending upon the opening line wager and the adjusted line wager attempting for a middle or side I will note at the end why there are more possibilities than appear on the surface for the laymen bettor.
Example: Adding just one point (or finding another sportsbook, or catching a line move), when the spread is on a half point, you need a full point to catch a pure middle. Where adding a half point regardless provides opportunities for siding a game.
PURE MIDDLE: A true middle only has one final number but you win twice the amount as the side amount win. If you bet Dallas at opening line at -3.5 and then took Washington +4.5, you only win if Dallas wins by 4, but you win both wagers. If your wager was $110 both ways, you win $200. If you lose (it's irrelevant which way because the vig is the same in this scenario), your total loss would be -$10. On a win, on Dallas you win $100 on Dallas, and $100 on Washington.
MIDDLE/SIDE: If you bet Dallas at opening line at -3.0 and then took Washington +4.0, (again it's irrelevant which way because the vig is the same in this scenario). If Dallas wins by 4, you win $100, and on Washington you push (tie), winning you a total of $100. If Dallas wins by 3 you push (tie) and win on Washington $100 (the same result).
PURE SIDE: If you bet Dallas at opening line at -3.0 and then took Washington +3.5,
(again it's irrelevant which way because the vig is the same in this
scenario). If Dallas wins by 3, you push (tie), and on Washington you win $100, winning you a total of $100. Now if any other scenario occurs, you lose $-10 (won $100 on the winning game, and lost -$110 on the losing game). This type of scenario is the same for PURE MIDDLES and MIDDLE SIDES
Total Amount of Win and Variance:
Pure Middle: Break Even is 1 Win out of 21 Attempts (4.76%)
The point of this thread was betting principles and knowing how to compare your handicapping with maximizing your wins and minimizing your losses. Although it portrays NFL, betting principles remain the same unlike the value of boxers (or NFL teams).