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Author: [CFL] Topic: CFL Week 14 & NFL Week 4
JooseBoxx send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
JooseBoxx
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#1
Posted: 9/28/2011 4:26:08 PM

British Columbia -5 (-110): There are so many warning signs, it's not even funny, as the Lions have a habit of letting down their backers when it counts most. New stadium, lots of hype, holding down a huge winning streak, Edmonton losing to a bunch of 2nd string defenders... it all points to BC. Looks too easy, I will just go small on this line. Risking 1.1 to win 1.

Saskatchewan +5.5 (-110): It's not a total wild prediction, but I will say that if the Riders don't beat the Stamps this weekend they will not make the playoffs, even if they finish the year 5-0. This is because they would then be 4 games behind Calgary, and either three games behind Edmonton and BC or 2 games behind BC and 4 games behind Edmonton. They might as well be an extra game behind BC since they have already lost the season series. Needless to say, the Riders will be all in for this game. Even when they sucked, they played Calgary hard. Calgary is struggling to find a running game, and as witnessed against BC, have a tough time dealing with a strong pass rush, which the Riders now possess. In fact, despite the big loss, the Riders have the same type of make up as the Lions, and I expect them to at least keep this a one possession game until the very end. Fantuz is questionable.Risking 1.1 to win 1.

Detroit +1 (-110): That's two weeks in a row where the Cowboys have failed to cover, and didn't even deserve to win. This Cowboys team is beat up, and it is showing. Bad route running, bad snaps, poor decision making, this team has been lucky to play two poor teams in a row. Well, that will stop on Sunday, when the 4-0 Lions come to town. Not only would I take the Lions if Dallas was completely healthy, but one look at the ATS records of these two teams says even more. Dallas is not to be trusted, and frankly, I'm surprised the Lions aren't listed as 2-3 point favourites. With all their defensive injuries, I don't know who will stop Titus Young, let alone Burleson and the unstoppable Megatron. Even if Romo can move the ball, I don't think he can keep up. Risking 1.65 to win 1.5.

Tennessee +1 (-110): Britt is gone, big deal. Matt Hasslebeck is a chuck, he is not afraid to throw it up, and still has some weapons to catch with Washington and Cook needing to pick up some slack. Even if the talented Haden takes out Washington, I’m not worried about the Titans, who will look to get the run game going against one of the worst run defences we’ve seen this season. Cleveland is clearly a run-first team, but will be going against a Titans team that is one of the best in the league at stopping the run, giving up only 89 yards/game thus far on the ground. They are even better against the pass, ranked 2nd in the league in passing yards allowed. All in all, this is turning into a great defence that should be able to stop the below average Cleveland offence with relative ease. Risking 1.1 to win 1.

All for now, more to come. Also, in case anyone missed it, former Stamps DB Brandon Browner had the dubious task of defending Larry Fitzgerald on Sunday, and actually did a half decent job against arguably the best WR in the NFL. If only NFL teams gave CFL guys a shot, I know for a fact there are plenty more who could make an impact down south. You telling me Tennessee couldn’t use Jamel Richardson or Andy Fantuz? Odel Willis could help the pass rush of many teams, while Cory Boyd could be a great 3rd down RB.

Record: 36-23-2, +21.15 units
Last Week: 4-5-1, -2.3 units

Early Predictions
Montreal 26, Winnipeg 21
British Columbia 29, Edmonton 22
Saskatchewan 44, Calgary 34
Toronto 23, Hamilton 21

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andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#2
Posted: 9/29/2011 5:16:23 PM
Against you on BC but GL with the rest.


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44-dimes send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
44-dimes
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#3
Posted: 9/30/2011 8:18:05 PM
Hey JB----------------I knew Brink was starting, that's why the line opened at MON -6. It probably would of been MON-3 with Pierce as the QB. Don't you recall Mon was a -8 at home against this the Bombers in WEEK 12.
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JooseBoxx send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#4
Posted: 10/1/2011 3:29:41 PM
Jon Cornish OVER 65.5 yards rushing (-115): With Joffrey Reynolds inactive again today, it is basically the Cornish show (with a few guest appearances by Coker). This now makes the over on rushing yards very good value, since we were previously dealing with a 50-50 split. Given only 9 carries last week, Cornish ran for 84 yards. This week, he plays a defence that is one of the worst at stopping the run, and as long as Calgary isn't miles behind the opposition, he should get more carries. Risking 1.15 to win 1.

Cory Boyd OVER 75.5 yards rushing (-115): Not only is taking prop bet overs a bad idea, but the CFL isn't exactly a league known for the run game. However, Toronto has to keep Cory involved to stay in the game, as he is their best offensive weapon. They may be the only CFL team that relies predominantly on the run game, and have a league best 6.1 yard/carry average on the ground. With Jyles at the helm, teams can't just stack the box against Boyd, giving him more room to run. Last week he had a good game against a very stingy run defence, this week could be better! Risking 1.15 to win 1.
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