Stock market way overvalued. Anyone have any good shorts?

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Author: [Investments] Topic: Stock market way overvalued. Anyone have any good shorts?
JEFFMARKETCAP PM JEFFMARKETCAP
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Posted: 5/13/2012 9:53:14 AM
I personally think this market is way ahead of itself.  Honestly can't believe we are at these levels.  I see a huge sell off coming. Whether or not you agree or not, what are going to be the stocks that fall the hardest?  I am thinking banks and Casino stocks will fall hard.  Any others?
wallstreetcappers PM wallstreetcappers
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Posted: 5/13/2012 1:53:10 PM
Lots of good shorts out there..

CMG, PCLN, AMZN, CRM, most all bank stocks, any stock with a PE outside a few standard deviations is a good target.

Problem is can you take the pain of waiting it out on the FED?
JEFFMARKETCAP PM JEFFMARKETCAP
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Posted: 5/13/2012 1:59:54 PM
What about options?  Thinking of buying some puts.  What do you like Walls?  You know your options. 
wallstreetcappers PM wallstreetcappers
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Posted: 5/13/2012 2:14:31 PM
Leaps..

Leaps and in the money, unless you want to purely gamble.

If you go any less than 6 months out in puts you have little shot because they are supporting the market and it is an election year.

So for example, say a bloated pig like AIG, I would probably go out to the 2013's or the 2014's and buy at or in the money.

If you want to gamble then consider the money burnt when you place the trade and only buy what you can afford to lose.

The problem with these high priced stocks (CMG etc) is the options are so damn expensive when you go out in time you wont make a killing even if the stock drops 100 pts.

If you can afford to short it makes more sense to short and accept the lower return. If you cannot afford to short and want to take that risk then first look at long term options (leaps) at or in the money. Then if you want to mega gamble go out of the money but STILL out in time and expect the odds are against you but you are willing to take that chance if you feel the market is going to correct.

I really think the market is out of balance to the tune of 6000 DOW points. I really think fair value is 7500 or lower if the fake support wasnt there.

Question is do you think the fake support is strong enough and are they willing to do whatever it takes to keep it afloat?
bill702 PM bill702
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Posted: 5/14/2012 12:01:16 AM
Wow you think it's that far off? Thats horrible I don't really have an opinion on the overall market, but you can tell it's being propped up. I'm just playing in penny stocks till we see this massive decrease. I don't like 1 company that's over $5 right now. So what's your plan wallstreet for the next year?
bill702 PM bill702
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Posted: 5/14/2012 12:04:09 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFMARKETCAP:

I personally think this market is way ahead of itself.  Honestly can't believe we are at these levels.  I see a huge sell off coming. Whether or not you agree or not, what are going to be the stocks that fall the hardest?  I am thinking banks and Casino stocks will fall hard.  Any others?
with casinos you really only have wynn and the sands will fall hard. Czr and mgm are allready pretty low.
JEFFMARKETCAP PM JEFFMARKETCAP
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Posted: 5/14/2012 7:54:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bill702:

Wow you think it's that far off? Thats horrible I don't really have an opinion on the overall market, but you can tell it's being propped up. I'm just playing in penny stocks till we see this massive decrease. I don't like 1 company that's over $5 right now. So what's your plan wallstreet for the next year?
Not that this video convinced me but I think you should watch it.  We are fucked.  Unemployment isn't getting any better.  The numbers are misleading.  Nobody has money.  Things are getting more expensive and wages aren't going up with the inflation.  It is going to get worse.  Just my opinion. 
JEFFMARKETCAP PM JEFFMARKETCAP
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Posted: 5/14/2012 9:48:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

Leaps..

Leaps and in the money, unless you want to purely gamble.

If you go any less than 6 months out in puts you have little shot because they are supporting the market and it is an election year.

So for example, say a bloated pig like AIG, I would probably go out to the 2013's or the 2014's and buy at or in the money.

If you want to gamble then consider the money burnt when you place the trade and only buy what you can afford to lose.

The problem with these high priced stocks (CMG etc) is the options are so damn expensive when you go out in time you wont make a killing even if the stock drops 100 pts.

If you can afford to short it makes more sense to short and accept the lower return. If you cannot afford to short and want to take that risk then first look at long term options (leaps) at or in the money. Then if you want to mega gamble go out of the money but STILL out in time and expect the odds are against you but you are willing to take that chance if you feel the market is going to correct.

I really think the market is out of balance to the tune of 6000 DOW points. I really think fair value is 7500 or lower if the fake support wasnt there.

Question is do you think the fake support is strong enough and are they willing to do whatever it takes to keep it afloat?
 Agree.  Good advice.  Thanks
wallstreetcappers PM wallstreetcappers
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Posted: 5/14/2012 10:01:29 PM
btw..

This isnt real selling, this isnt fear..this is light, soft selling.

I dont know if we will see the market at fair value with the FED involved but with Europe how it is failing, the lack of job creation and growth, the real estate market still sluggish I have no idea how we are over 10k.
JEFFMARKETCAP PM JEFFMARKETCAP
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Posted: 5/14/2012 10:37:02 PM
I have no idea either.  
joewashington PM joewashington
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Posted: 5/18/2012 7:37:44 PM
I look at the homebuilders and can't believe their valuations today relevant to what they dropped to early-mid 09........
joewashington PM joewashington
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Posted: 5/18/2012 7:41:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

Leaps..

Leaps and in the money, unless you want to purely gamble.

If you go any less than 6 months out in puts you have little shot because they are supporting the market and it is an election year.

So for example, say a bloated pig like AIG, I would probably go out to the 2013's or the 2014's and buy at or in the money.

If you want to gamble then consider the money burnt when you place the trade and only buy what you can afford to lose.

The problem with these high priced stocks (CMG etc) is the options are so damn expensive when you go out in time you wont make a killing even if the stock drops 100 pts.

If you can afford to short it makes more sense to short and accept the lower return. If you cannot afford to short and want to take that risk then first look at long term options (leaps) at or in the money. Then if you want to mega gamble go out of the money but STILL out in time and expect the odds are against you but you are willing to take that chance if you feel the market is going to correct.

I really think the market is out of balance to the tune of 6000 DOW points. I really think fair value is 7500 or lower if the fake support wasnt there.

Question is do you think the fake support is strong enough and are they willing to do whatever it takes to keep it afloat?

we all know the insiders are pointing to the next collapse......they just need to time it so the public retail investor takes it on the chin again.....everybody's an insider if you're not the public......wall street bankers....fund managers and the politicians will dictate the timing.....I see it happing in the next 9-12 months.....can't see it happening before the election.

joewashington PM joewashington
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Posted: 5/18/2012 7:44:18 PM
btw......google hearings missing $9T from FED in off balance sheet transactions and watch the grilling.
mtndew146 PM mtndew146
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Posted: 5/19/2012 7:36:12 AM
Looks like Morgan Stanley had to prop up the price of Facebook from going below 38 dollars so look for FB to get shorted like hell on MOnday or at least drop further.
JEFFMARKETCAP PM JEFFMARKETCAP
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Posted: 5/21/2012 6:20:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by joewashington:

we all know the insiders are pointing to the next collapse......they just need to time it so the public retail investor takes it on the chin again.....everybody's an insider if you're not the public......wall street bankers....fund managers and the politicians will dictate the timing.....I see it happing in the next 9-12 months.....can't see it happening before the election.

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