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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Derby 2012-Give your insight leans"-Scenerio
handikapper1
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handikapper1
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#1
Posted: 5/2/2012 9:29:40 PM

 I would like to start off with my leans:

1. Alpha

2. Hansen

3. Daddy Knows Best

4. Creative Cause

5. Prospective

these are the ones I am following closely till friday

My analysis will follow soon.

share your opinions? projected outcome? why?

lets all share insight!  and also Kentucky Oaks plays!

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Johnnyg7 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Johnnyg7
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#2
Posted: 5/2/2012 9:53:00 PM
I'll be the first to say I'm a victim of Derby Fever and I absolutely love talking about the buildup to the race.

That said, I usually do not invest a lot of money in the Derby because it is really a crapshoot. There are so many handicapping factors you have to take into account including but not limited to, trip, pace, distance, track biases etc etc. It's hard enough to pick the winner let alone the bottom horses in the exotics. So I usually bet the Derby more on instinct than form or figures. With these horses being raced less than ever before the big race, it's very very difficult to see who is being cranked up and who is heading the other way.

I'm hoping to hit some nice prices on the other stakes races and possibly go anywhere from 6-10 deep on my Derby Pick 4, depending on weather and value in the other races.

I like all 3 California horses. I'll Have Another will be nice value, and the 19 post helps the inexperienced Gutierrez avoid some traffic since the horse has nice early foot. Creative Cause fires every time and has my favorite jock riding him, so you can bet he'll be in my exotics and possibly keyed up. Bodemeister could be an absolute freak, but I'm not thrilled with him being inside of both of the other speed horses. He doesn't have speed to either side of him, so he should get a clean break and decent position. If he doesn't win the Derby, he will be primed for the Belmont.

I'm not super high on the Wood horses, but Alpha possesses far greater value than Gemologist if you consider the circumstances of their last start.

1A) Bodemeister
1B) Creative Cause
2) I'll Have Another
3) Union Rags
4) Daddy Nose Best

Subject to change by midnight tonight


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garywpt
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garywpt
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#3
Posted: 5/2/2012 10:04:35 PM
As far as Alpha and Prospective both have raced at CH and did not finish in the $$. Also Prospective finished 6th in his last prep race and 95% of KD winners finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in their final prep. Optimizer (9th), El Padrino (4th) & Liasion (6th) fall under that same stat.  And post 11 (Alpha) and post12 (Prospective) have only produced 3 winners from each post in Derby history.
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wde
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wde
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#4
Posted: 5/2/2012 10:06:18 PM
Bodemeister all the way, This horse is a super horse and only going to get better. His last workout was .59 for 5 furlong's in the mud.

         
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#5
Posted: 5/2/2012 10:13:33 PM
Bodie never been off synthetics tread careful!!!
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#6
Posted: 5/2/2012 10:32:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pulledclear:

Bodie never been off synthetics tread careful!!!

Actually, Bode has never been ON synthetics.  But tread carefully regardless. 

HB 
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handikapper1
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#7
Posted: 5/2/2012 10:54:34 PM

  Derby analysis

Breeders Cup Juvenile runners have fared well

thats why I am leaning Hansen/Creative Cause

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#8
Posted: 5/2/2012 11:20:10 PM

Sand has been added to Santa Anita’s clay-and-sand main track in recent weeks, a procedure welcomed by some horsemen who say the racing surface is slower  and safer than it was earlier this year.

The California Horse Racing Board has yet to release fatality statistics for this year’s meet, which began Dec. 26 and ends April 22, so it is not clear whether there have been fewer main-track casualties compared to last season. But some horsemen say adding sand has made the track safer.

Santa Anita’s clay-and-sand track has been the subject of periodic maintenance since it was installed to replace a synthetic track in late 2010. Last summer, for example, the surface underwent significant changes to reduce clay content and add sand. 


Call it what you want. Im not going to argue. Both surfaces ARE "SAFER AND SLOWER"! Churchill surface MUCH MUCH DIFFERENT IMHO. GL

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#9
Posted: 5/2/2012 11:28:56 PM
Irrelevant, but the Santa Anita surface was anything but "slow."
HB
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#10
Posted: 5/3/2012 3:10:30 PM

Putting up my top 5 or 6, will narrow in the next few days, also, no special order:

Union Rags

Bode

Alpha

Daddy Knows Best

Dullahan

Hansen

If rain plays any part, Alpha moves to the top of my chart. 

If it is dry and extremely hot, put both Alpha and Union to the top. 

If weather is average, nice overall track, Alpha then in midpack among the best, due to size, Hansen then moves up and Daddy & Dullahan with Bode move to the top of the charts

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#11
Posted: 5/3/2012 5:38:17 PM

I just watch and listen to all the commentary from Blood Horse, HRTV, and Live from Churchill downs. I also follow some Darin Zoccali on twitter.

So far the only comment from anybody that caught my eye was this: Hansen did not look good the other day on the track.

 

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jimmydean813
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#12
Posted: 5/3/2012 6:16:29 PM
i'm liking Union Rags, Dullahan and Daddy Knows Best so far. I think Hansen will be up front with Bode in a speed dual and each will wear each other out letting someone just off the pace or middle of the pack to sweep by and win. Just look at last year with shackleford.  The distance will tire the 2 of them.  I'm thinking Bode finishes 3rd.  I never like playing speed for the derby and I won't be this year.
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Skipbone
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Skipbone
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#13
Posted: 5/3/2012 6:47:06 PM

Creative Cause

I'll Have Another

Daddy Nose Best

Indy

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TonyP31 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sports Interaction |
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#14
Posted: 5/3/2012 6:50:45 PM
im leaning towards Done Talking and Daddy Nose Best.. I loved the way Done Talking weaved his way through traffic in the Illinois Derby. Also i thing theres going to be a ton of speed in this race.
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#15
Posted: 5/3/2012 6:51:55 PM
#15  Gemologist
#8    Creative Cause
#5    Dullahan
#2    Optimizer

Superfecta Box.

Gemologist WPS

Good luck to all.
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#16
Posted: 5/3/2012 6:54:04 PM
I have to throw some $$ on Trinniberg too just incase he never stops running lol.
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MRPRISTINE send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
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#17
Posted: 5/3/2012 9:23:53 PM
GEMOLOGIST
UNION RAGS
DULLAHAN
HANSEN
TAKE CHARGE INDY



I THINK GEMOLOGIST WILL BE A GEM AT THE DERBY WPS ALSO


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MRPRISTINE send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
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#18
Posted: 5/3/2012 9:26:31 PM
GEMOLOGIST
UNION RAGS
DULLAHAN
HANSEN
TAKE CHARGE INDY



I THINK GEMOLOGIST WILL BE A GEM AT THE DERBY WPS ALSO


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