Creative Cause

Forum: Horse Racing
Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Creative Cause
thip PM thip
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Posted: 4/18/2012 11:18:32 AM

Boys I really believe CC is sittin on a big race.  It's still 17 days away and a post position draw.  However we know there's going to be speed.  Hansen, Gem, TCI, Bode etc.  Watching all of CC's races the past few days has my juices goin.  He gets a good jump out of the gate, rates just off the pace and has finishes strong.  I have no issues with him getting beat by IHA in SA Derby.  Second was a good race and good conditioning run.  He finished and ran out well.  I like that he ran good at CH Downs.  He has the foundation as a two year old, he has raced 3 times as three year old and has never finished worse than 3rd.  He also has raced in a big field. 

Tough tough race but all my instincts point to him!  Just my 2 cents..

PrimeTimeBoys PM PrimeTimeBoys
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Posted: 4/18/2012 11:38:35 AM
I agree with you, I picked the same horse couple days ago after looking at his races.........only other horse that I keep looking at is Gemologist because he is undefeated & wont be a favorite because everyone is in love with Bode & Union Rags, he also has Pletcher as his trainer, so..........its between those 2 for me. Still gotta see the post draw..........
HolyBull PM HolyBull
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Posted: 4/18/2012 11:43:35 AM

Can't argue it.

HB

Johnnyg7 PM Johnnyg7
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Posted: 4/18/2012 12:41:09 PM
Hard to believe Beyer thinks both he and I'll Have Another regressed in the SA Derby, I'll be interested to see the sheets and TG figures for that race. I personally believe Beyer just hates West Coast Racing and refuses to respect it.

The race visually was very impressive, the final time was fast, and I'll Have Another was fresh while CC was making his 3rd start off the bench. Bodemeister come out of the San Felipe beaten by CC and romps the Arkansas Derby by 9 lengths with a 108. Yet we are supposed to believe the SA Derby was slower than the plodding we saw in the Wood? OK Andy...
angrybarber PM angrybarber
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Posted: 4/18/2012 12:55:23 PM
johnnyg!!! thank u for talking about the beyer numbers i think theyre ridiculous for these 3 year old races! they seem way off to me
Greyhound PM Greyhound
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Posted: 4/18/2012 12:55:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Johnnyg7:

Hard to believe Beyer thinks both he and I'll Have Another regressed in the SA Derby, I'll be interested to see the sheets and TG figures for that race. I personally believe Beyer just hates West Coast Racing and refuses to respect it.

The race visually was very impressive, the final time was fast, and I'll Have Another was fresh while CC was making his 3rd start off the bench. Bodemeister come out of the San Felipe beaten by CC and romps the Arkansas Derby by 9 lengths with a 108. Yet we are supposed to believe the SA Derby was slower than the plodding we saw in the Wood? OK Andy...




"Losses penalize handicappers who depend too heavily on numerical speed ratings or speed figures, neglecting other factors"


Tom Ainslie, 1986

Chapter 12,  "The Speed Factor" , page 211    

Johnnyg7 PM Johnnyg7
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Posted: 4/18/2012 1:11:54 PM
So what are you trying to say Grey?
Greyhound PM Greyhound
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Posted: 4/18/2012 1:54:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Johnnyg7:

So what are you trying to say Grey?



Ainslie's statement is pretty much self explanatory but you seem to be wrestling with the fact that Beyers numbers don't support your own thoughts.   


I think it's hilarious how nobody can have a thought about a horse race unless Andy Beyer and his crew verify it.    


That goofy guy hasn't picked a winner of a major race since he invented those stupid figures.    Andy Beyer

Johnnyg7 PM Johnnyg7
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Posted: 4/18/2012 2:05:02 PM
Actually Beyer's can be quite useful if you can spot out bad figures. That's what I was trying to get out. The betting public utilizes them so much especially on big race days and they are huge topics of discussion in the KD.

I'm not struggling with the figure at all. I've already decided it's wrong, and Beyer's are the least of my worries when handicapping. I'll trust legit speed figures over that dart throwing contest any day of the week.

Didn't Baffert say something along the lines of "If you want a big Beyer fig, you have to run at Aqueduct?"
PrimeTimeBoys PM PrimeTimeBoys
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Posted: 4/18/2012 10:43:16 PM
CC is getting blinkers back on but it seems he shy's away from the whip & we all know how whip happy jockeys get coming down the stretch in the KD so the trainer & jockey gotta work on that. 

If im not mistaken, CC wasnt whipped at all coming down the stretch in the Santa Anita & still only lost by a nose.........
thip PM thip
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thip
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Posted: 4/19/2012 8:33:09 AM

Joel Rosario  whipped CC 2-3 times coming around last turn, then never touched him again down the stretch.  I'll have another was on the whip comin to the finish line.  I ussually do not like the west coast shippers, however you have to like the fact that CC ran strong at churchill. 

vetdrm PM vetdrm
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Posted: 4/19/2012 6:51:52 PM
 He is always trying to either look at the people in the grandstands (even with the hood on) or wait on another horse without the blinks like he did in the SA Derby.  Blinkers will definitely keep him more focused on running his own race. 
 He was looking and maybe even waiting on I'll have another without the blinks.  He does look much more powerful and long striding with the hood on.
Also appears as Steve Haskins states  he appears to shy away from the whip.
If that is the case they need to fix that right away as jocks in the derby get very whip happy down the stretch.
Im on the bubble with this horse.I dont think its a good idea to experiment to much with blinkers.He obviously needs them as evidenced by his run in the Santa Nita.

vetdrm PM vetdrm
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Posted: 4/19/2012 6:57:27 PM
After reading an article today on Ntra they talk about cheater blinkers which will only restrict his vision http://www.ntra.com/content/display/news/NDk5NTE= a small amount.


gl thip-nice horse

 
thip PM thip
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Posted: 5/2/2012 8:13:51 PM
CC now has the 8 post and is 12-1 odds!  Love it.
HolyBull PM HolyBull
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Posted: 5/2/2012 8:26:58 PM

That's a horrible ML 12-1.  Wathcmaker has him at 8-1 on DRF which is more like it.

HB

pulledclear PM pulledclear
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Posted: 5/2/2012 8:38:28 PM
Seems to be more for synthetics Ill pass.
Forum: Horse Racing
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