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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: The Derby Favorite
Greyhound send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 4/11/2012 9:03:10 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fatroll07:

I don't touch horses from Dubai/Europe on dirt. In my opinion they are over bet and they do not produce. For those who are interested in fractions here they are...
26.13, :50.54 and 1:15.19

If those fractions were ran here we would think it was a low level claiming race. Of course synthetic courses have slower times but Daddy obviously had the perfect trip sitting off a very slow pace.




You forgot one time.   The final time.   Daddy Long Legs won in 1:58 and 1 fifth.      TRAKUS charts for Dubai   (UAE Derby is race 4)

Remember Master of Hounds from last year's Derby and Belmont?   He was a nose from winning the same UAE Derby at the same track at the same distance.  His time was 1:58 and 4 fifths.   3 fifths slower than Daddy Long Legs. 

Master Of Hounds (also trained by Aiden O'Brien) went from the UAE Derby, without a single race on regular dirt in his life and finished a hard charging 5th beaten 5.5 lengths in the Kentucky Derby by Animal Kingdom.   He had to weave thru traffic in the stretch of the Derby  LINK

A lot of people including me, liked Master Of Hounds in the Belmont after that performance in the Derby.   The track came up sloppy at Belmont and Master of Hounds broke slowly from the gate and got left behind and had no chance in that race.

Daddy Long Legs already has one race experience at Churchill on dirt. And he's got plenty of excuses as I already pointed out.   He's probably a better horse than Master Of Hounds, if you look at their past performances from Europe.   And if you look at their breeding, Daddy Long Legs might have more of a dirt pedigree than Master of Hounds does.   Scat Daddy was a dirt horse.   KingMambo was a turf horse, one of the great turf sires of all time.   LINK

"Only one of Kingmambo’s top-level winners was a dirt horse, but he was the 12-furlong Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid, now an accomplished sire in his own right and the sire of many high-class dirt and turf horses."

They weren't going much faster the first half mile in the Dubai World Cup, a 10 million dollar race.   (Race 9 in the TRAKUS charts)    25.72 for the quarter and 49.94 to the half.   2 fifths of a second and 3 fifths of a second faster than the UAE Derby.


"Time is only important in prison"   


Carl Nafzger, March 1990, after Unbridled won the slowest Florida Derby since Nashua in 1955.

Unbridled went on to win the Kentucky Derby that year.   LINK

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#27
Posted: 4/11/2012 9:18:34 AM

BTW, I'm not picking Daddy Long Legs to win the Derby at this point.       (although I might, and I'm definitely going to put some money on him regardless)

I just think he's a dangerous horse to overlook, which I'm sure a lot of people are going to do because of the BC Juvenile performance.  Considering his owners, the trainer, and the big time races they have been putting him in, these people know horses and they think he's a good horse obviously.  And so do I.  


One other thing,  both Daddy Long Legs and Wrote couldn't use Lasix in Dubai.   I'm sure they will be back on the juice when they get to Kentucky.   Wrote won the BC Juvenile Turf on first time Lasix.        

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#28
Posted: 4/11/2012 9:23:57 AM

Grey,

As it relates to time, that's a matter of opinion.  Who am I  to argue with Carl Nafzger when it comes to training Derby Winners, however, I would argue that our friends from across the pond have yet to make a significant dent on the first Saturday in May.

On that note, an American Thoroughbred has yet to stamp himself as my Derby Horse, so I'm going to continue to evaluate those stateside and abroad.

I have been searching for information on Castaway.  Is he officially off the Derby Trail.  I would be disappointed if he was, because I can easily forgive his Sunland Derby.  Anything?  Anyone?

Grey, do you have a "lean" right now?

Fat, great to see you this time of year!

 

HB

 

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#29
Posted: 4/11/2012 9:35:50 AM

No, I don't have a lean.    Castaway, I doubt is going to the Derby.  He's not in the Top 20 for Graded Earnings  right now.  



Looks like that link to the KingMambo article didn't work above. (Master Of Hounds sire)

Try it again.   LINK   

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#30
Posted: 4/11/2012 9:58:21 AM
Grey. I don't compare times from one year to the next. Tracks can change dramatically with weather/conditions day by day. You are talking year by year.
Also I can not compare last years crop to this years crop of three year olds. Although I am having trouble distinguishing the best horse I believe there are quite a few talented horses. All top finishers from last years Cup Juvenile are back and running great. So yes Master ran a solid 5th vs a VERY weak crop of 3yo but 5th doesn't get me any money. If you look at ROI on horses from Europe coming to america and running on dirt I can guarantee the numbers are awful. Unfortunately I do not have any data to illustrate this. Your points are valid and Scat Daddy is proving to be a solid sire(even though I thought Scat seemed like the kind of horse limited past mile and 1/8) but I'll take his other baby. The horse that will probably have similiar odds to the horse coming from Dubai and ran a 100 beyer over real dirt in altitude.

With all that being said I did NOT have animal kingdom and it comes from the angle that I do not like horses coming off synthetic into the derby (turfway horses seem to run pretty well on dirt). Sometimes you get burned but I think in the long run it will save you a lot of money.

HolyBull- Hope all is well. I wish I could be around more but too much going on to be weekly capper. Focus my time on the big days. I hope you are making $$$$
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#31
Posted: 4/11/2012 1:57:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by HolyBull:

This is a very strange rendition of the KY Derby.  I agree with Atlas, I couldn't imagine making a case for anyone who enters the gate at much less than 10-1. 

I cannot see this week changing anything.  Even if Hansen or one of the Bafferts win by daylight, I would be hard pressed to imagine any of them getting it there own way on Derby Day.

HB

 

BULL.GOOD COMMENTS AS USUAL....I agree that it is a strange rendition. That's why Done Talking and any other 75-1 shot should enter. It could be that kind of a race again!

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#32
Posted: 4/11/2012 8:01:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mikeyp1:

 

BULL.GOOD COMMENTS AS USUAL....I agree that it is a strange rendition. That's why Done Talking and any other 75-1 shot should enter. It could be that kind of a race again!

They certainly earned their spot in the gate, so why not?!

You headed to Louisville?

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#33
Posted: 4/16/2012 11:19:11 AM

Bode put a bit of a monkey wrench into things, but the theme still stands.  The favorite will be 5/6-1.  You are going to get a boat load of well qualified thoroughbreds in the 10 / 40 -1 range.

Is it beyond reason to think that:

Mark Valeski will be 40-1?

Daddy Nose Best will be between 15 / 20 -1?

Hansen will be 15-1? (Seriously, maybe North of this!)

Secret Circle 25-1? ( Or North of it?)

Done Talking 50-1? ( I wouldn't play him, but I can see that number.)

Went the Day Well 25-1? (For the Animal Kingdom mirror)

El Padrino 30-1 + ? (Please god let him get in and put GoGo on him)

Take Charge Indy 20-1?

There are going to be some sick prices / odds.  Remember, everyone can't be 5 / 10 -1 so there is going to be serious drifting of prices.

HB

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#34
Posted: 4/16/2012 11:49:59 AM

Here's my best guess for the KY Derby ML (early I know, but want to give it a crack!):

Gemologist 5-1 (Undefeated!)

Union Rags 6-1 (It's always been about 5/5)

Bodemeister 8-1  (Will he rate for 1 1/4...love the Empire Maker)

Creative Cause 8-1 (Top 3 credentials in the field)

I'll Have Another 8-1 (I have no doubt you'll get North of this #  race day)

Dullahan 10-1 (Never better than 3rd on dirt)

Hansen 12-1 (Don't forget the Juvie "The more they asked the more he gave!")

Alpha 15-1 (What a number for 3yo with plenty of credentials)

Take Charge Indy 15-1 (Would it shock you to see Borel sliding up the rail?)

Secret Circle 20-1 ( This will probably go North as well, but what a number on a classy horse that will be overlooked)

Daddy Nose Best 20-1 (This on wreaks of the bottom of the tri!)

Went the Day Well 20-1 (Deja Vu all over again)

El Padrino 25-1 (Personally, It would be a shame if he's not in the gate)

Sabercat 25-1 ( He did nothing wrong in the Ark Derby)

Daddy Long Legs 30-1 (I'm from Mizzou on this one.....Show Me!)

Mark Valeski 35-1 (The right running style with the right connections to maybe be ITM)

Liason 40-1 (Not enough substance on dirt for me. If his trainer wasn't Baffert he's be 75-1)

Prosepective 50-1 (When he's raced against classier 3yos he has not risen to the challenge)

Done Talking 50-1 (Why wouldn't you take a shot?)

Reveron 50-1 (Earned his spot in the gate)

Guys, would love to hear your thoughts!  Feel free to rip away.

HB

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#35
Posted: 4/21/2012 11:19:56 AM

Trinniberg is IN!

This completely changes the race IMO.

http://www.drf.com/news/2012-kentucky-derby-trinniberg-reveron-injured-and-out

HB

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#36
Posted: 4/21/2012 12:21:16 PM
agreed HB there is the speed of the speed. trinniberg only has 1 running style and has no chance to get that distance. trouble for hansen and bode. and probably any other horse who sits to close to the pace.
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#37
Posted: 4/21/2012 1:27:46 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by HolyBull]

Here's my best guess for the KY Derby ML (early I know, but want to give it a crack!):

Gemologist 5-1 ................3-1

Union Rags 6-1 ..........4-1

Bodemeister 8-1 ...........5-1

Creative Cause 8-1 ............8-1

I'll Have Another 8-1 .............10-1

Dullahan 10-1 ...............10-1

Hansen 12-1 ................12-1

Alpha 15-1 .....................12-1

Take Charge Indy 15-1 ................15-1

Secret Circle 20-1 .....................20-1

Went the Day Well 20-1 ...............20-1

El Padrino 25-1 ...................20-1

Sabercat 25-1 ..................30-1

Daddy Long Legs 30-1 .....................40-1

Mark Valeski 35-1 .....................30-1

Liason 40-1 .....................50-1

Prosepective 50-1 .....................30-1

Done Talking 50-1 ................50-1

Reveron 50-1 ....................50-1



My odds are right next to your HB & that is what I think we will see..........

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