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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NHL Reg System 2013
joferrer90 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
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#101
Posted: 3/23/2013 9:38:23 AM
ENGLISH GENT im new to hockey and have been reading your system post im sorry to ask im just a bit confused how does your system work and so you bet twice on one team per day? just need some insite id llike to follow you on this system
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#102
Posted: 3/23/2013 1:04:05 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by joferrer90:

ENGLISH GENT im new to hockey and have been reading your system post im sorry to ask im just a bit confused how does your system work and so you bet twice on one team per day? just need some insite id llike to follow you on this system

yes that's right....you make 2 bets on the same team....one is on the regulation line (ie game result in 60mins play before overtime) and one bet on the money line which includes overtime if it is needed.....the team to bet on is the highest money line fav of the day that opens above -160....

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#103
Posted: 3/24/2013 4:33:03 AM

23/3/13........(REGULATION)

REG YTD....... + 17.64u

REG YTD SU : 25 - 20 (56%)

0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5 / 1.39

Montreal Canadiens...... -0.5 / -118.......2.23u to win 1.89u...

 

23/3/13..........(ML/OT Inc)

ML/OT YTD....... + 24.73u

ML/OT YTD SU : 32 - 13 (71%)

0.5 / 0.5 / 2.27

Montreal Canadiens.........ML/OT Inc / -198...........5.48u to win 2.77u....


Overall YTD : + 42.37u

Overall YTD SU : 57 - 33 (63%)

 

for today....

 

24/3/13........(REGULATION)

REG YTD....... + 15.41u

REG YTD SU : 25 - 21 (54%)

0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5 / 1.39 / 2.23

Pittsburgh Penguins...... -0.5 / -107......2.92u to win 2.73u...

 

24/3/13..........(ML/OT Inc)

ML/OT YTD....... + 19.25u

ML/OT YTD SU : 32 - 14 (70%)

0.5 / 0.5 / 2.27 / 5.48

Pittsburgh Penguins.........ML/OT Inc / -191...........11.42u to win 5.98u....


Overall YTD : + 34.66u

Overall YTD SU : 57 - 35 (62%)

 

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#104
Posted: 3/24/2013 9:25:41 PM
EnglishGent i stay in vegas so how would that apply to me as in the case of betting twice on one team and is this a chase system?
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#105
Posted: 3/25/2013 9:53:08 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by joferrer90:

EnglishGent i stay in vegas so how would that apply to me as in the case of betting twice on one team and is this a chase system?

I don't think it matters whether your in Vegas or betting online...most books offer both a regulation line and a moneyline with overtime time included....you make a bet on each for the same team.....it is sort of a chase system in the fact that when you lose your bet amount increases but it uses a labby line rather than doubling up on bet a ,bet b, bet c which some system do....

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#106
Posted: 3/25/2013 10:00:50 AM

24/3/13........(REGULATION)

REG YTD....... + 15.41u

REG YTD SU : 25 - 21 (54%)

0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5 / 1.39 / 2.23

Pittsburgh Penguins...... -0.5 / -107......2.92u to win 2.73u...

 

24/3/13..........(ML/OT Inc)

ML/OT YTD....... + 19.25u

ML/OT YTD SU : 32 - 14 (70%)

0.5 / 0.5 / 2.27 / 5.48

Pittsburgh Penguins.........ML/OT Inc / -191...........11.42u to win 5.98u....


Overall YTD : + 34.66u

Overall YTD SU : 57 - 35 (62%)

 

for today....

 

25/3/13........(REGULATION)

REG YTD....... + 12.49u

REG YTD SU : 25 - 22 (53%)

0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5 / 1.39 / 2.23 / 2.92

Boston Bruins...... -0.5 / -117......6.02u to win 5.15u...

 

25/3/13..........(ML/OT Inc)

ML/OT YTD....... + 25.23u

ML/OT YTD SU : 33 - 14 (70%)

0.5 / 2.27

Boston Bruins........ML/OT Inc / -195..........5.4u to win 2.77u....


Overall YTD : + 37.72u

Overall YTD SU : 58 - 36 (62%)

 

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#107
Posted: 3/26/2013 10:05:26 AM

25/3/13........(REGULATION)

REG YTD....... + 12.49u

REG YTD SU : 25 - 22 (53%)

0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5 / 1.39 / 2.23 / 2.92

Boston Bruins...... -0.5 / -117......6.02u to win 5.15u...

 

25/3/13..........(ML/OT Inc)

ML/OT YTD....... + 25.23u

ML/OT YTD SU : 33 - 14 (70%)

0.5 / 2.27

Boston Bruins........ML/OT Inc / -195..........5.4u to win 2.77u....


Overall YTD : + 37.72u

Overall YTD SU : 58 - 36 (62%)

 

for today.....St Louis opened at -205...just ahead of Chicago at -200...really could do with a regulation win...

 

26/3/13........(REGULATION)

REG YTD....... + 6.47u

REG YTD SU : 25 - 23 (52%)

3.64 / 3.64 / 3.64 / 3.64

St Louis Blues...... -0.5 / -128........9.31u to win 7.28u...

 

26/3/13..........(ML/OT Inc)

ML/OT YTD....... + 28u

ML/OT YTD SU : 34 - 14 (71%)

0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5

St Louis Blues........ML/OT Inc / -209..........2.09u to win 1u....


Overall YTD : + 34.47u

Overall YTD SU : 59 - 37 (61%)

 

quote
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#108
Posted: 3/27/2013 3:03:42 PM

26/3/13........(REGULATION)

REG YTD....... + 6.47u

REG YTD SU : 25 - 23 (52%)

3.64 / 3.64 / 3.64 / 3.64

St Louis Blues...... -0.5 / -128........9.31u to win 7.28u...

 

26/3/13..........(ML/OT Inc)

ML/OT YTD....... + 28u

ML/OT YTD SU : 34 - 14 (71%)

0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5

St Louis Blues........ML/OT Inc / -209..........2.09u to win 1u....


Overall YTD : + 34.47u

Overall YTD SU : 59 - 37 (61%)

 

for today....very disappointing night....a week ago the system was cruising along on the way to +50u....five reg losses in a row have killed that....first time in 3 seasons the system has lost 5 in a row on the reg line.....now I am considering cutting my losses....the labby line for the reg is a real mess....the ml keeps rolling on though.. I know the system is still in the black.....will see how tonight goes....maybe Boston tonight and Vancouver tomorrow can get this system back on track....

 

27/3/13........(REGULATION)

REG YTD....... - 2.84u

REG YTD SU : 25 - 24 (51%)

3.64 / 3.64 / 3.64 / 3.64 / 9.31

Boston Bruins...... -0.5 / -102........13.2u to win 12.95u...

 

27/3/13..........(ML/OT Inc)

ML/OT YTD....... + 25.91u

ML/OT YTD SU : 34 - 15 (69%)

0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5 / 2.09

Boston Bruins........ML/OT Inc / - 167..........4.32u to win 2.59u....


Overall YTD : + 23.07u

Overall YTD SU : 59 - 39 (60%)

 

quote
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#109
Posted: 3/28/2013 2:12:51 AM

27/3/13........(REGULATION)

REG YTD....... - 2.84u

REG YTD SU : 25 - 24 (51%)

3.64 / 3.64 / 3.64 / 3.64 / 9.31

Boston Bruins...... -0.5 / -102........13.2u to win 12.95u...

 

27/3/13..........(ML/OT Inc)

ML/OT YTD....... + 25.91u

ML/OT YTD SU : 34 - 15 (69%)

0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5 / 2.09

Boston Bruins........ML/OT Inc / - 167..........4.32u to win 2.59u....


Overall YTD : + 23.07u

Overall YTD SU : 59 - 39 (60%)

 

28/3/13........(REGULATION)

REG YTD....... - 16.04u

REG YTD SU : 25 - 25 (50%)

3.64 / 3.64 / 3.64 / 3.64 / 9.31 / 13.2

 

28/3/13..........(ML/OT Inc)

ML/OT YTD....... + 21.59u

ML/OT YTD SU : 34 - 16 (68%)

0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5 / 2.09 / 4.32


Overall YTD : + 5.55u

Overall YTD SU : 59 - 41 (59%)

 

What can I say....Boston were 5-3 up in the 3rd with 8 mins left...it was looking good....Montreal tie the game with 9 secs left and then win in a shoot out.....you cant make this up....I bet a lot of WTA and that garbage is more predictable than this.....well that was the final nail in the coffin for me regarding the regulation line system....6 losses in a row....I haven't come across any system or money management which can deal with that....looking at the labby line....to bet tonight on Vancouver would be 16.5u just to clear the final 13.2u number...it would be its unrealistic to get entire line that cleared unless you risk a lot of units and I wont do that....I have lost faith in it....if it can lose 6 times in a row it can lose 7....personally I think Vancouver will win tonight and in regulation and I will be betting on that but at this point I would rather leave the system with a little profit than risk any more losses.....I wont even continue posting the ML side of it as you don't need a system on a forum just to bet the highest ml of the day....anyone can do that...trouble with those high ml favs is that somewhere down the line your likely to get into trouble....once you go past 2 losses the unit amounts rack up.....look at baseball for example......

sorry fellas it hasn't worked out, no one is more disappointed than me...

good luck in the future....

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#110
Posted: 3/28/2013 2:57:36 AM
seems like a good system to make around 30-40 units and then stop.
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#111
Posted: 3/29/2013 12:38:08 AM

The horrible streak finally ends!!!  After reading your comments earlier today I gave your system a lot of thought.  I too lost my behind this past week, but took a chance and recoverd some of my losses with both Pittsburgh and Vancouver in regulation.

Since your the English Gent you should know all about refinement. Looking back at what happened I don't think you should give up on your system at all!  Refine it.

Back test this thing and see what your results would be if you limited your system to a 3 or 4 game chase. Yes you would have lost some money, but you still would have been profitable.  If I remember correctly you said the ML chase has never went past losses in row.  Well maybe you limit each chase to a 4 game chase???

Just a thought, hate to see you give up on this.  Regardless of the recent losses thank you for your efforts.

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#112
Posted: 3/29/2013 8:22:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SweetDickWormy:

The horrible streak finally ends!!!  After reading your comments earlier today I gave your system a lot of thought.  I too lost my behind this past week, but took a chance and recoverd some of my losses with both Pittsburgh and Vancouver in regulation.

Since your the English Gent you should know all about refinement. Looking back at what happened I don't think you should give up on your system at all!  Refine it.

Back test this thing and see what your results would be if you limited your system to a 3 or 4 game chase. Yes you would have lost some money, but you still would have been profitable.  If I remember correctly you said the ML chase has never went past losses in row.  Well maybe you limit each chase to a 4 game chase???

Just a thought, hate to see you give up on this.  Regardless of the recent losses thank you for your efforts.

SweetDickWormy.....I appreciate your post..class act.....glad you recovered some losses on Van and Pitt...bet Van myself in reg for quite a few units....i honestly didn't believe this system would lose again even though it was obviously possible....

anyway I started this system last year on the regulation line only as a 3 game chase but moved onto the labby line as there were quite a few 3 game losses which killed the profit.....I have had a look back at how it would have worked out this season chasing 3 or 4 games on the reg line...3 game chase would have worked out as a 14.56u loss as there were 4 3gm losses, a 4 games chase was 20.82u loss with 2 4gm losses.....this is based on average odds of -120.....anyway you look at it the reg line system was in the red this year.....

the ML/OT inc is a different matter...you can discount any system using -1.5 puckline.....there are lots of losing streaks but a 9 streak loss was the most so no hope there......I thought about a -1 pl system...this is no good either....there are 2 3gm losses or 1 4 gm loss....but the odds are higher than reg line so this is not profitable either.....doing a 3 game chase on the ML is the only profitable way this year....and it would have been last year as well.... would have you at 34u profit this year as opposed to 26u up after Van using a labby line.....of course the risk is much greater....using average odds of -200 which would be about right especially later in the season a 3 game loss is 26u.....you can forget chasing past 3 unless you have a huge bankroll.....a 4 gm loss is 80units....5 i don't want to even work out......so as the risk is much greater you could maybe could not have more than 1-2 losses a season to stay profitable........on the plus side its hasn't gone past 3 losses this season or last.......its food for thought and although I don't like high ML systems as the risk is high i may look into further....ie might play it after first game loss with higher unit size, may back test further years etc ....but to be honest anyone can play the highest ML fav of the day and chase it.....but i do believe long term it wont be profitable....i have seen many ML baseball systems get into trouble chasing highest favs etc.....and not to sound arrogant because that's not my intention but i also think that there are easier sports and systems to make money with....i also have to admit posting systems on a public forum is difficult and i may not go back to it....i will still be watching and playing this reg and ml system in some situations but i didn't want to be responsible for anyone losing money that's the reason i stopped when i did.....while a small profit was still on the table.....i could have continued with Vancouver last night but the risk was around 30u over both systems....i wouldn't want to post that .yes it won and it would have made the system look much more profitable but if it lost i wouldn't like to think i had lost peoples money......i realise we are all adults and play at our own risk but i am just giving you some insight into my thinking.......anyway i have rambled long enough......gl to you....

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#113
Posted: 3/29/2013 12:32:14 PM

Very rarely do I post.  I have been a silent majority and would like to express to you English_Gent that you have done an excellent job and show a lot of class. 

Although I do not follow to the letter chase systems I did follow your hockey plays and coupled with other regression principles I have seen a small profit and believe me in this profession any real pure profit is a success. 

It would be a shame if you decided not to refine, filter and continue.  This is a heartbreak climb uphill profession.

Thank You,     I AM DRKNOW.

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#114
Posted: 3/6/2014 6:41:25 AM
Did anyone track this privately for this season or apply any filters that worked ? Can't seem to find a thread for current season.

I have 2 other main systems that I run and I can go on a 2,3 or 4 day stretch without a play..I like the idea of this system as a side play to ensure I have 1 bet a day‚Ķ 

Cheers
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