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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: 2012 MLB Home Chase System
English_Gent send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
English_Gent
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#1
Posted: 4/19/2012 6:17:08 PM

Recently i ran a thread for an NHL system and i thought i would post the MLB system i am using for this season. Its a system i have used before but i would always give up during a bad run, move onto something else, forget to put bets on due to work, miss bets by not checking whether 2 or 3 games series etc, in general just not focusing enough on it but posting here helps me be more disciplined and focused on the bets as i got into a routine of checking and posting with the NHL system. I intend to see it through unless its a disaster. If anyone follows then play at your own risk with good money management. I am playing with a small unit size as i dont want to stress especially when muliple series are in play.

 

The system is simple enough.....i have seen variations of this on forums over the years so i dont claim this as an original idea....if anyone is posting the same system here please let me know and i will stop...a guy over at sbr posts a similar system but he is more conservative and only plays home teams over .500 and doesnt play the RL on dogs....

 

MLB Home Chase System

Look for a home team starting a 3 game minimum series.

Bet the home team if they lose the first game.

Chase the remaining games of the series.

Bet the moneyline on favs , bet +1.5 run line on dogs

No Plays  -  if the home team is a dog for the first game and they cover the +1.5 RL spread on that game then no bet.

No plays on any 2 game series.

i will try and use some common sense with some series such as not playing teams with the best road records against the worst home records etc....

 

i backtested last season and the results were 295 - 49.....however 3 teams (Seattle, Houston, Minn) were responsible for 14 losses so the record without them is 268 - 36......a loss is around 5 - 6 units so a decent profit can be made.....this is why i will try to filter out this years bad teams.....

anyway this season currently stands at 27 -1 for + 21.76 units.....the loss came on KC home opener.....i didnt expect them to lose their opener after a decent start.....anyway i will start the record at 0-0.......

new series starting tonight for SD, DET and ARI so will be back with any plays tomorrow....

 

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English_Gent
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#2
Posted: 4/20/2012 1:04:51 AM

20/04/12

YTD Series Record.... 0 - 0

Gm 1......Arizona Diamondbacks......+1.5 RL........ -155.......1.55u to win 1u......

Gm 1.....San Diego Padres......+1.5 RL...... -148.......1.48u to win 1u.....

 

No play on Detroits game as Texas have the best record in MLB and are on a 7 game win streak....

 

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English_Gent send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 4/21/2012 3:04:33 AM

After getting up and looking at last nights results its seems that just about every away team won. Thats means alot of plays starting for this system today, i have started updating my own spreadsheet and its dawned on me that its is going to take much more commitment and time to run this thread than i originally thought. I have my wife asking what time are we going shopping, my son asking when i will be back to take him golfing, my boss texting asking if its possible to do a few hours overtime today. You know the deal. Christ the daily grind of life just gets in the way sometimes doesnt it!!.....its hard enough for me just to update my own stuff....with all the plays for this system, the early games in MLB so i would have to post early etc i just havent got the time to post.....i think the one play a day NHL system i posted is enough for me.....till then......bol...

 

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sofaking1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#4
Posted: 4/27/2012 5:00:17 PM

Hello

You said if a home team lost the first game of a 3 game series then betting them to win one of the next two went 295-45 last year using a chase system.  THe home team either won the second game if not you chased them in the 3rd game? 

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