Posted: 4/19/2012 6:17:08 PM
Recently i ran a thread for an NHL system and i thought i would post the MLB system i am using for this season. Its a system i have used before but i would always give up during a bad run, move onto something else, forget to put bets on due to work, miss bets by not checking whether 2 or 3 games series etc, in general just not focusing enough on it but posting here helps me be more disciplined and focused on the bets as i got into a routine of checking and posting with the NHL system. I intend to see it through unless its a disaster. If anyone follows then play at your own risk with good money management. I am playing with a small unit size as i dont want to stress especially when muliple series are in play.
The system is simple enough.....i have seen variations of this on forums over the years so i dont claim this as an original idea....if anyone is posting the same system here please let me know and i will stop...a guy over at sbr posts a similar system but he is more conservative and only plays home teams over .500 and doesnt play the RL on dogs....
MLB Home Chase System
Look for a home team starting a 3 game minimum series.
Bet the home team if they lose the first game.
Chase the remaining games of the series.
Bet the moneyline on favs , bet +1.5 run line on dogs
No Plays - if the home team is a dog for the first game and they cover the +1.5 RL spread on that game then no bet.
No plays on any 2 game series.
i will try and use some common sense with some series such as not playing teams with the best road records against the worst home records etc....
i backtested last season and the results were 295 - 49.....however 3 teams (Seattle, Houston, Minn) were responsible for 14 losses so the record without them is 268 - 36......a loss is around 5 - 6 units so a decent profit can be made.....this is why i will try to filter out this years bad teams.....
anyway this season currently stands at 27 -1 for + 21.76 units.....the loss came on KC home opener.....i didnt expect them to lose their opener after a decent start.....anyway i will start the record at 0-0.......
new series starting tonight for SD, DET and ARI so will be back with any plays tomorrow....