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Author: [Props & Futures] Topic: Season Wins Predictions
SportNutNYY send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 3/29/2005 10:43:34 AM
Had some extra time and had done this a few backs back on paper. Just thought I would share my ideas. Feel free to contribute and comment.  
 
2005 MLB Regular Season Wins  
 
Sun 4/3 Total Regular Season Wins by: Boston Red Sox  
05:00 PM 109 Over 95 wins -101  
110 Under 95 wins -109  
 
Sun 4/3 Total Regular Season Wins by: New York Yankees  
05:00 PM 137 Over 100.5 wins -109  
138 Under 100.5 wins -101  
 
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Anaheim Angels  
09:00 AM 101 Over 92 wins -105  
102 Under 92 wins -105  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Arizona D-Backs  
12:00 PM 103 Over 74 wins +100  
104 Under 74 wins -110  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Atlanta Braves  
12:00 PM 105 Over 88.5 wins -106  
106 Under 88.5 wins -104  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Baltimore Orioles  
12:00 PM 107 Over 80 wins -108  
108 Under 80 wins -102  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Chicago Cubs  
12:00 PM 111 Over 86 wins -112  
112 Under 86 wins +102  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Chicago White Sox  
12:00 PM 113 Over 82 wins -109  
114 Under 82 wins -101  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Cincinnati Reds  
12:00 PM 115 Over 77.5 wins -108  
116 Under 77.5 wins -102  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Colorado Rockies  
12:00 PM 117 Over 68 wins -114  
118 Under 68 wins +104  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Cleveland Indians  
12:00 PM 119 Over 83 wins -111  
120 Under 83 wins +101  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Detroit Tigers  
12:00 PM 121 Over 79 wins +102  
122 Under 79 wins -112  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Florida Marlins  
12:00 PM 123 Over 87 wins -105  
124 Under 87 wins -105  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Houston Astros  
12:00 PM 125 Over 82 wins -103  
126 Under 82 wins -107  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Kansas City Royals  
12:00 PM 127 Over 65 wins -114  
128 Under 65 wins +104  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Los Angeles Dodgers  
12:00 PM 129 Over 84.5 wins -104  
130 Under 84.5 wins -106  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Milwaukee Brewers  
12:00 PM 131 Over 70 wins -110  
132 Under 70 wins +100  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Minnesota Twins  
12:00 PM 133 Over 88.5 wins -105  
134 Under 88.5 wins -105  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: New York Mets  
12:00 PM 135 Over 84.5 wins -111  
136 Under 84.5 wins +101  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Oakland Athletics  
12:00 PM 139 Over 81 wins -117  
140 Under 81 wins +107  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by:Philadelphia Phillies  
12:00 PM 141 Over 84.5 wins -113  
142 Under 84.5 wins +103  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Pittsburgh Pirates  
12:00 PM 143 Over 73.5 wins -109  
144 Under 73.5 wins -101  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: San Diego Padres  
12:00 PM 145 Over 87 wins -108  
146 Under 87 wins -102  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Seattle Mariners  
12:00 PM 149 Over 79.5 wins -109  
150 Under 79.5 wins -101  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: St. Louis Cardinals  
12:00 PM 151 Over 93 wins -120  
152 Under 93 wins +110  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Tampa Bay D-Rays  
12:00 PM 153 Over 70.5 wins +115  
154 Under 70.5 wins -125  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Texas Rangers  
12:00 PM 155 Over 81.5 wins +109  
156 Under 81.5 wins -119  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Toronto Blue Jays  
12:00 PM 157 Over 70.5 wins +102  
158 Under 70.5 wins -112  
 
Mon 4/4 Total Regular Season Wins by: Washington Nationals  
12:00 PM 159 Over 71 wins +101  
160 Under 71 wins -111
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#2
Posted: 3/29/2005 11:01:57 AM
Most books have removed the San Francisco Giants with the status of Bonds. I was  
in Reno this past weekend, CalNeva had them 84 wins -115. They should be able to surpass that amount even w/o Bonds.
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Posted: 3/29/2005 11:27:39 AM
1) Boston  
Really dont see how the Sox improved but since they won 98 games last year I think they will be right around there again. The keys are Schilling, Wells and Miller's health combined with Clement switch to the AL and Arroyo continued growth. Pen and Lineup are solid. (Sox 95+)  
 
2) NYY  
Think the Yanks improved there pitching greatly with there new additions and the return to health of certain players like Giambi and Bernie combined with bounce back years from Jeter and Arod make them the team to beat on paper(naturally the Sox are the defending Champs). Key is Pavano and Wrights continued growth in the AL and overall health to the entire team. Last year they won 101 with a 12-11 start to the year , a less talented rotation , and tons of injuries and supbar years...I expect 105+ this season. (NY 100.5+)  
 
3) Angels  
Lots of new faces in Los Angeles these days. Salmon out for the year, Guillen banished, Glaus in Zona , Eckstein in STL, Percival in Det ! They brought in Finley who is a solid player but really cant see how he could be an offensive upgrade over Guillens 2004 season. The chemistry aspect along with his defense should be the plus. Hopefully Anderson can stay healthy in 2005. They have penciled in McPherson to play third and DaaVannon is the early replacement for Salmon. The lineup is again very strong along with improved defense. Its all bout the pen and rotation. Over teh past few yeasr the Angels pen has lost some key contributors and now elevated K-Rod from setup man to closer effectively weakening there pen IMO. The rotation has to depend on inconsistent starters liek Colon and Washburn while hoping Escobar is as good as 2004. ALckey and Byrd fill out the rotation. With Seattles tough lineup but questionable staff and the other West question marks (Angels 92+)  
 
4) DBacks  
With all the new additions and the watered down West I see Arizona topping the 74 win mark. Three new starters in Vazquez, Ortiz and Estes who are huge upgrades over some of teh gusy they had last year like Edhar Gonzalez and Casey Daigle naturally the Unit is gone. The pen could be outstanding if certain guys get healthy. Aquino,Valverde, Villareal and so on. The lineup has some nice new additions and play in a great hitters park.(Dbacks 74+)  
 
5)Braves  
I think with the improved rotation and the emergence of Andruw Jones they will again top 90 wins! The key is there bullpen and who emerges as a reliable set of relievers in teh 7th and 8th innings. Mondesi and jordan if healthy will contribute while I expect big years from Chipper, Andruw and Giles.(Braves 88.5+)  
 
6)Orioles  
With the addition of Sosa and some growth from the starting pitchers this team is not far off from serious contention. The lineup is on par with teh Sox and Yanks but the pitching is where the difference lies. However for a team that won 78 games last year but went just 5-13 in Interleague Play I see no reason why they dont improve in 2005.(Orioles 80+)  
 
7)Cubs  
Injuries , Injuries, Injuries are the key to this thin team. Cause of there SP i think they will get to teh 86 win mark but not much higher! Dont like the bullpen and hate the cloud hanging over Woods and Prior. The corner OFs are a big question mark but if all goes well this is a 90win team. (cubs 86+)  
 
8) WSox  
Really like teh new look Sox and there key to success is Contreras and El Duque. Really like there lineup even without the BigHurt cause EVerett has looked great in the Spring. The pen is solid but again its all about the SP!(WSox 82+)  
 
9) Reds  
Again if healthy and some SP this could be a suprise team in the weak Central. Health is the key up and down the roster. They fell apart after losing Griff and Kearns last year so if they stay healthy I expect a 500club!(reds 77.5+)  
 
10) Rockies
 
This team outside of some of its hitters i s pretty awful and even worse thin!Expect a 100 loss season even in the West.(Rockies under 68)  
 
11) Indians  
Tough call for me I think the lineup is solid but may be hard pressed to repeat some of there 04 seasons. The SPis a big qiestion mark with Sabathia injured and Westbrook still unproven IMO. Then you have Millwood and Elarton coming over from the NL where they were largely unsuccessful. Sure Elarton pithced decent in a few starts late but thats asking alot to depend on him IMO. They do have some solid arms in the Minors who could step in and the pen looks okay on paper. I think this division is going to be tight (Indians under 83 wins)  
 
12) Tigers  
To me this team is just as good maybe better then Cleveland so I say over! There lineup is excellent with Maggs ,Inge and Monroe taking over for somewhat unproductive players. Th ekey is the continued emergence of Bonderman, Maroth , Robertsona and Ledezma who I really like. If they keep Urbina it give sthem a good open if they deal him hopefully its far a ML ready starter who can replace jason Johnson...not likely though(Tigers 79+)  
 
13) Marlins  
The East is tough cause I expect all the teams to battle for 1st place with 85-92 wins! Florida has an excellent lineup and great upside with its rotation problem is they cant afford an injury to there SP and the pen is a question mark. (Florida 87+)Really think they win 86-88 games  
 
14) Astros
 
Again another tight number! Really think Houston struggles this year wiythout Beltran to carry them. Clemens will not be super human again so I will say Under!(Stros under 82)  
 
15)KC  
KC is extremely young and will have growing pains especially when it deals Sweeney. (KC under 65.5)  
 
16) Dodgers
 
I dont think LA is that bad but injuries to the rotation have to be a concern when your using Rupe and Erickson early to fill in. The lineup is okay and when fully healthy I like the pitching but expect a slight drop in wins.(LA under 84.5)  
 
17) Brewers  
Only cause of the slight upgrade in offense will I say they get to70! Hopefully losing Kolb doesnt give away any wins late! SP and pitching in general is a major concern but I think the Central will be down this year!  
 
18)Twins  
Solid, fundamental team but think they fall shy! Santana really cant improve and they have some young players on the left side of the IF along with questions around Mauer. After Santana and Radke I dont trsut there rotation!(Twins under 88.5)  
 
19) Mets  
Think excitement is back and if they all stay healthy they should top the 85 win mark! Really whats to say that hasnt been the key is lineup health, Ishii and Zambrano in the rotation along with who emergences in the pen.(NYM over 84.5) again have them 84-86 wins!  
 
20) A's  
The young staff will have its growing pains and just miss winning 80 games. Already Dan Meyyer doesnt look ML ready. There pen loooks awesome but could lose effectiveness late cause of overuse. The lineup is basiclly the same as last year. (A's under 81)  
 
21)Philles  
Well if I think NY slides over then I have to think Philly does. Same ole story ....SP!! They have Wagner and a great lineupso can they put it together expect Wolf to suprise! (Philly 84.5+)  
 
22) Pirates  
Think they are again a 75 win team but anywhere from 70-75 will not suprise! There rotation si stronger then most 70win clubs so I will go over. (pitt 73.5+)  
 
23)Padres  
Lots of talk here again bottomline is health cause they have no pitching depth IMO. (SD 87+)  
 
24) Seattle  
Awesome lineup but again pitching is the key and I am not sure I like Seattles staff. Though 500 is likely!(Sea 79+)  
 
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Posted: 3/29/2005 11:37:37 AM
25) StLouis  
Like the rotation of Mulder, carpenter, Morris afte that cam Marquis and Suppan duplicate 04 and what will the pen do with some key losses? Still think they win low 90's expect 91-95 wins!(Cards 93+)  
 
26)DRays
 
Awful team plain and simple especially with Baldelli hurt. Way under!60 wins would almost be suprising!! (TB under 70.5)  
 
27)Rangers
 
Still dont have pitching!! Hard to imagine a better then 500 season! lineup is great and loaded with potential but a bounce back down to Earth IMO for this team. (Rangers under 81.5)  
28)BJays  
Sorry Toronto fans but not sure how they win 70 games this year in the EAST cause the other 3 teams are that much better then them. They have 2 solid starters but Bush,Towers and Chacin have a better chance of fa;lling flat on there face IMO then winning 30 or so games bewteen them. The pen is better but still very unproven but my concern is teh lineup especially with a still struggling Wells as the centerpiece. I said this before they are filled with 6 and 7 hitters really remind me of Seattle last year when people banked on Aurila, Spezio and Ibanez to "improve' The lineup! (Toronto under 70.5)  
 
29) Nationals  
If healthy they win 72-75 games so I will say over due to there SP. Still dont think they can hit much but they are in a pitchers park. (Nationals 71+)  
 
30) Giants
 
With or without Bonds they win 85 games. He will be back its called frustration !! (SF 84+)  
 
Just a quick comment about each. There are very few worth playing IMO.  
 
Standings coming later with actual predicted records.!  
 
Thanks DC @ 510!
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#5
Posted: 3/29/2005 5:20:33 PM
With you on Dodgers Under> White Sox over> Cubs over> Twins under!  
Against you on Brewers> D backs> Red Sox.  
I also took under for the Pirates at 73 1/2 but I believe you have that one going either way.  
GL Nut >great post and do you have one you would play if you could only play one team?  
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Posted: 3/30/2005 5:32:39 AM
think your a little scewed on the totals i counted 18 overs and 10 unders if one team wins, the other has to lose...overall amount should be a little closer than that
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Posted: 4/1/2005 11:35:25 AM
Skunk- I played 4 totals only. TB under, Orioles over, tiger sover and I have to check for the other cant recall what it was.  
 
Kevi- It really doesnt matter most of them were marginal by a win or two herefore I didnt play them.  
 
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Posted: 4/1/2005 11:59:51 AM
Here are my 2005 Projected Standings( just my opinion)  
 
American League  
East  
Yankees 104-58(103,101,101)  
Red Sox 95-67 (93,95,98)  
Orioles 85-66 (67,71,78)  
BJays 69-93 (78,86,67)  
DRays 54-108(55,63,70)  
 
Central  
Twins 88-74(94,90,92)  
WhiteSox 84-78(81,86,83)  
Tigers 83-79(55,43,72)  
Indians 78-84(74,68,80)  
Royals 60-102(62,83,58)  
 
West  
Angels 93-69(99,77,92)  
Mariners 83-79(93,93,63)  
Oakland 81-81(103,96,91)  
Rangers 77-85(72,71,89)  
 
National League  
East  
Braves 91-71(101,101,96)  
Marlins 87-75(79,91,83)  
Mets 86-76(75,66,71)  
Phillies 86-76(80,86,86)  
Nationals71-91(83,83,67)  
 
Central  
Cards 94-68(97,85,105)  
Cubs 87-75(67,88,89)  
Reds 83-79(78,69,76)  
Astros 81-81(84,87,92)  
Pirates 72-89(72,75,72)  
Brewers 70-92(58,68,67)  
 
West  
Giants 90-72(95,100,91)  
Padres 86-76(66,64,87)  
Dodgers 83-79(92,85,93)  
Dbacks 73-89(98,84,51)  
Rockies 58-104(73,74,68)
 
 
Feel free to ask me anything about why I think so! Just had some time and thought it would be interesting to see how close I come at the ned of the year its a much harder task then it sounds.  
 
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Posted: 4/1/2005 12:01:35 PM
Made a mistake  
 
West  
Should read  
Dbacks 72-90  
Rockies 55-107
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Posted: 4/1/2005 5:13:44 PM
The only one I disagree with is the White Sox. I see them in forth of a four team race for the central. I really like your Reds over Stros prediction. I don't see Balt being 25 games better than Toronto.  
 
Yanks will win more like 110 and the O's 79.  
 
I don't see anyone in the NL west winning 90.  
 
Either the Mets or Phillis will flounder. i don't see a four horse race in the NL East the entire year. Florida and Atl are just too good, while a third team will keep pace the other will tank. I have a hunch the Phillies will are in trouble. They still can't run at all. Wagner and Thome are due for a long DH stint.
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#11
Posted: 4/1/2005 8:33:46 PM
Philly can't run? Abreu stole 40 last year. Rollins stole 30. Utley figures to steal about 10 and Polanco is also a threat. Not to mention Kenny Lofton, currently #27 all time in career SB. Sure, he ain't what he used to be but he'll swipe about 15 in a full time role. They'll probably be in the top 5 in the NL for SB this year, maybe even #2 right behind the Mets.  
 
And how is Wagner "due" for the NL. He was on it last year.  
 
 
Nut --  
 
I guess you're countind on a lot of bad weather in Baltimore this year.....
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#12
Posted: 4/1/2005 8:35:05 PM
DL, not NL.
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Posted: 4/1/2005 9:39:49 PM
Quick thoughts: Yankees if Healthy 105 should be doable. Red Sox will dissapoint this year, under the total.  
 
Tribe will surprise and go over the total  
 
Mariners will go over the total. Of course Suzuki has to stay healthy, he is the key to the team along with some pitching.  
 
Angels under the total, Outfield will be on IR most of the year.  
 
Sorry have to go  
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Posted: 4/1/2005 11:18:09 PM
Jays will easily win over 70 games
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#15
Posted: 4/2/2005 11:15:41 AM
Thanks Nut > I am tailing you on D`Rays U 71 1/2 -125.
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#16
Posted: 4/2/2005 2:03:40 PM
San Fran in first? I don't know, I'm hesitant at that... No Bonds makes the biggest difference... Not just his homeruns, but all the free walks he took last year, allowed SF to score more runs. I liked LA in the NL WEST, but with Gagne out, it also makes a one-run game in the ninth that much different. (And LA was one of the league leaders last year with games decided by 3 or less runs). All in all, Arizona to win more than 79 games is a great play to take (based on NO Bonds and NO Gagne). They should go at least 5 or 6 games above .500 IMO.  
 
GL
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#17
Posted: 4/2/2005 2:40:14 PM
Riddla, if the D-Backs go over .500 I'll eat my hat. That is one sorry-behind team. And I actually like their #1-3 in the rotation.
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Posted: 4/2/2005 3:43:14 PM
Matador- I sthat in reference to the O's staff? There pen is solid and although there staff is littered with picthers still carrying the potential label they are a big sleeper for me. First love the upside of the rotation with Cabrera, Bedard and Chen. Best way to put its Ray Miller! The guy was forgetten about but after the O's placed him in power they had teh second best ERA in the AL rest of the way. Now they have better SP to work with and finally let Ryan close along with the other conditions. It all depends on SP but Lopez,Ponson(a headache)and the back three will suprise IMO. First thing is they all have good arms and like Miller said no way I would return if I didnt have such a great collection of arms to work with.  
 
As for Arizona I agree with you on that but there bullpen could really suprise if they get healthy IMO. My point was more they did make several nice upgrades but they won 51 games with Randy Johnson what would that number have been without him 43 or 44? So to win 73 games alone would be a thirty win improvement and thats a huge gap.  
 
Riddla- I dont belive Bonds wil be out more then 30 games to start the year and think with the upgrades and feliz they are in okay position to weather the storm in the short term. That division is a mess and could have a bunch of 85 win teams battling for 1st place. They are just so many holes in the West IMO. I really dont go on much of a limb with my predictions there was no statistical analysis involved like Matador does which really cuts to the point. If I had teh time I owuld have loved to do something like that and then combine my opinion. These were just based on 2003 and 2004 performances that inclkuded team by team wins and player movement....  
 
Spcaemonkey- There are just one big puzzle as easily as they could win 75 they could win just 60 IMO. Halladay is an average pitcher on th eroad if you check his numbers and lets see if Lilly is going to be okay. Then all you have is Bush,Towers and Chacin. I cant say anything good about Towers and Bush;s number swere misleading if you break them ddown. Leaving Chacin with about 3 innings of ML experience. Ilike the tyoiung guys but they are still young . The lineup is is pretty bad by AL standards unless Wells returns to his 2003 form. The one thing I like is there pen which coul dbe a strong suit for them. Just to many questions that need to be answered. Really dont see how they are any better this year then last and worse the Yanks and O's are clearly better while Boston in some peoples minds is marginallly improved. Toronto is not IMO. It sjust my opinion though!
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#19
Posted: 4/2/2005 3:54:44 PM
Matador, I'm looking forward to it!  
 
Sportnut, I agree it's good to look at stats and previous performance. BUT, if that was the case, then EVERY year people would have the same picks. There's always a big surprise each year (aka Texas last season), and I think Arizona is it. I haven't bet yet, but when I do, it won't be a LARGE bet anyways, just an amount good enough to keep me interested in the LEAGUE itself, rather than the day-by-day betting interests of most gamblers.  
 
I also like Seattle OVER 79.5. Living in Toronto now, I can tell you that the Jays SUCK this year. UNDER 70.5 Toronto WINS is a bet for me, as much as I'd hate to do so. But keep in mind, NEXT SEASON, the Jays will have $40 million more to spend on players (due to new ownership), so I hope the Jays lose lots of games this season, so I can POUND the underestimated wins total NEXT season!  
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#20
Posted: 4/2/2005 4:59:54 PM
Nut --  
 
No. It was in reference to the fact that you have them playing 151 games this year.  
 
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Posted: 4/2/2005 5:03:26 PM
Kenny Lofton is awful.
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Posted: 4/12/2005 4:49:57 PM
jays over 70.5 2 years ago the had over 80. Last year Delgado and Holiday were injured. They will easily go .500.
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