|How does Howard being out for the beginning of the season work into the equation? Is it 50 games(minimum)played for the wager to take effect?
Posted: 8/28/2012 9:35:43 PM
If so, I agree with MadSkillz. I'd go with Miami.
The Heat are healthy and have an established flow and chemistry to their offense which should easily incorporate shooters Allen and Lewis. Allen may take a few points away from LBJ and Wade, but the bulk of his scoring will be taken from Battier, Chalmers, Miller and Jones. I also don't see him getting more than 12-14 ppg, at best. I can still see Miami's big 3 getting a 96-99 total per game, in these categories, if they stay healthy and play their "normal" style the last 2 seasons. No reason for them to change things drastically.
On the other hand, there will be chemistry issues in LA, especially if Howard does not come back until December/January. He has never averaged more than 22.9 ppg despite being the primary scorer and shooting a boatoad of free throws and having a career FG of 58%. His focus this season will be defense, not necessarily offense, especially in Brown's system. His shot attempts will likely go down with Gasol and Kobe beside him, even with Nash feeding him some easy buckets. He will continue to be a shitty FT shooter. I see Howard getting 18, 14 and 2.
I also think Nash will utilize Gasol just as much as Howard, as he has done wonders with Amare and Gortat, who both can shoot and slash like Gasol. Howard is just a dunker in reality; no real shooting touch outside the lane. Nash's scoring and assists should be around 13 and 10.5. Rebounds around 3.
Kobe will definitely score a little less(once Howard is back) and likely will continue to be the man in the 4th. He should get 24, 5 and 4.
Gasol is the key. He will take away just enough scoring and rebounding from the other 3 to put Miami on top in these categories.
Lakers will get 91-94 and Heat will get 96-99. Just my opinion.