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Author: [Soccer] Topic: Euro 2012 Thread
arkadymo send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#51
Posted: 6/11/2012 10:33:31 PM
This line was at -110 for both sides but has since moved enough that I want to lock in a unit now.  I may add more when game time approaches.

Pending:
Ireland +1.5 +107 vs Spain (1 unit)
  • Let's remember Croatia's three goals and how low quality they were.  I realize Ireland were thoroughly outplayed but they did not deserve to give up three goals.  Spain, in my opinion, are overrated are really don't have the grit necessary to break through Ireland's defense.  They're tic-tac passing just might not work too effectively against 10/11 guys behind the ball the entire match.  This will be a nerve-wracking type of bet but I think it's the right side...

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#52
Posted: 6/11/2012 11:34:42 PM
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#53
Posted: 6/11/2012 11:49:31 PM
Kings!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We got the cup!!!!!!!!
Posted using a mobile device.
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#54
Posted: 6/12/2012 11:56:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by eddiegray:

Kings!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We got the cup!!!!!!!!

Congrats -- go play in the NHL forums.

With line movements, I added half a unit on the Greece/Czech u2 +124. 
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#55
Posted: 6/12/2012 12:58:08 PM
Unfortunately have to head out for the day; will be back tonight.  I added a half unit of Russia at +145 because of the bit of line movement; I like the price.  Still mostly covered by the pk line but took a bit on the ML.  Also adding a HT play for the Greece game...

Pending:
HT: Greece v Czech u3 +170
  • This game is already on cruise control it seems.  The Czechs had few chances late in that second half to counter the Greeks but chose to slow it down; look for more of that in the second half.  The Greeks are playing long ball soccer and I doubt that this will work.  Only way this goes over is if the Greeks score (a 3-0 scoreline will really put this game to bed) and I just don't see it happening.  Pretty good chance of a push but I like the price.


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#56
Posted: 6/12/2012 4:51:45 PM
Record: 4-8-3 -0.931 units

Futures (all 1 unit):
Holland to win +690
Italy to reach the Semi Final +225
Group D to be highest scoring +350
Russia to win Group A +160
Greece to qualify from Group A +170
Poland to finish last in Group A +350
Holland to win Group B +195
Denmark to finish last in Group B -168
Italy to win Group C +325
Ireland to finish last in Group C -130
France to win Group D +180
Ukraine to qualify from Group D +140
England to finish last in Group D +500

Results:
Poland TT u0.5 +240 (1 unit) LOSS
Russia +125 (1 unit) pk -129 (1 unit) WIN
Netherlands -130 (1 unit) -1 +112 (1 unit) LOSS
HT: Netherlands +310 (1 unit) LOSS
Portugal TT u0.5 +186 (1 unit) TT u1 -116 (1 unit) WIN
Spain TT u1 +171 vs Italy (1 unit) PUSH
HT: Italy v Spain u1 +128 (1 unit) LOSS
Ireland TT u0.5 +123 (1 unit) LOSS
France pk -146 (1.5 units) PUSH
HT: France pk, -0.5 +116 (1 unit) LOSS
Ukraine v Sweden BTTS -105 (1 unit) WIN
HT: Ukraine pk, -0.5 +127 (1 unit) WIN
Greece v Czech Republic u2 +101 (1 unit) u2 +124 (0.5 units) LOSS
HT: Greece v Czech Republic u3 +170 (1 unit) PUSH
Russia pk -143 (1.5 units) +145 (0.5 units) LOSS

Frustrating day for me.  Petr Cech's blunder costs me a winning day in the second half of the Greece game on a play that I thought was definitely the right side.  Russia were the better side early but were kinda lucky to come away with the draw...

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#57
Posted: 6/12/2012 4:58:19 PM
Pending:
Ireland +1.5 +107 vs Spain (1 unit)
  • Let's remember Croatia's three goals and how low quality they were.  I realize Ireland were thoroughly outplayed but they did not deserve to give up three goals.  Spain, in my opinion, are overrated are really don't have the grit necessary to break through Ireland's defense.  They're tic-tac passing just might not work too effectively against 10/11 guys behind the ball the entire match.  This will be a nerve-wracking type of bet but I think it's the right side...
Italy +136 vs Croatia (1 unit)
  • I just don't think Croatia's win over Ireland was as emphatic or decisive as the scoreline indicates.  Were they the better team? Yes.  But obviously Italy and Ireland are completely different animals and I just don't see how I can pass up this price for the better team.
France v Ukraine Over 2 -115 (1.5 units)
  • Did anyone watch how Ukraine played?  They pressed, counter-attacked and did everything they could to up the pace of the match.  France will look to do the same after a boring match versus England that they utterly dominated.  I see each team netting at least once.
England v Sweden Under 2 +128 (1 unit)
  • After watching Sweden play, I just don't see how I'll be able to stay awake when they play England.  I was surprised to see Sweden play so cautiously and if you mix that in with a Roy Hodgson England team, I don't see very many goals being scored here...
I will be back later for Group B plays; I think I will attack that with Team Totals tomorrow but have not decided.  Very hard group to decipher.
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#58
Posted: 6/12/2012 5:15:13 PM
ireland +1- looks interesting.  i imagine a lot of people will overreact to the ireland loss and just assume spain bounces back with an easy win.  i'm not so sure about spain.  i agree they are overrated.  there wasn't too much to like about their first match. 

similar analysis can be used to justify a play on italy. 

good luck. 
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#59
Posted: 6/13/2012 12:11:49 AM
Pending:
Denmark +0.5 +104 vs Portugal (1 unit)
  • I just re-watched the Portugal/Germany game and just can't convince myself that Portugal are that much better than Denmark.  Yes, I know that Portugal had a few chances late to equalize and I know that Netherlands had a million shots on goal but couldn't capitalize.  To me, that's oversimplifying those matches.  Portugal were outplayed by an under-performing German side and weren't really able to create great chances until late when the game opened up.  That won't happen versus Denmark as they have shown they can defend for 90 minutes.  I see this being a sloppy game as the Danes defend, defend, defend just biding their time and waiting for an opportunity to strike.  Don't be surprised by a low scoring draw but who knows, maybe Denmark can shock the world and get another win...
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#60
Posted: 6/13/2012 12:34:54 AM
Pending:
Russia v Greece Over 2.5 +109 (1 unit)
  • Talk about a conundrum that Greece is in right now; they'll be starting two back-up CBs and one back-up goalie next match and they NEED a win.  The flip side?  The only time Russia has truly looked deadly is on the counter-attack and they realistically only need a draw.  Greece has been able to net a goal in each of the last two matches and Russia's defense is nothing special.  However, considering how open this game could get, I just don't see how there aren't plenty of goals in this one.
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#61
Posted: 6/13/2012 12:44:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Pending:
Russia v Greece Over 2.5 +109 (1 unit)
  • Talk about a conundrum that Greece is in right now; they'll be starting two back-up CBs and one back-up goalie next match and they NEED a win.  The flip side?  The only time Russia has truly looked deadly is on the counter-attack and they realistically only need a draw.  Greece has been able to net a goal in each of the last two matches and Russia's defense is nothing special.  However, considering how open this game could get, I just don't see how there aren't plenty of goals in this one.


Yes  Sir we should see 2 goals from Ruski and at least one from Greece side.Like this one .Good luck
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#62
Posted: 6/13/2012 1:38:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

ireland +1- looks interesting.  i imagine a lot of people will overreact to the ireland loss and just assume spain bounces back with an easy win.  i'm not so sure about spain.  i agree they are overrated.  there wasn't too much to like about their first match. 

similar analysis can be used to justify a play on italy. 

good luck. 

I hope I'm right on this angle; essentially both of my bets are at least somewhat contingent on my interpretation of the Croatia/Ireland match.  I just thought Ireland were extremely unlucky and although they were outmatched, they probably deserved a 2-1 scoreline or maybe a draw.

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#63
Posted: 6/13/2012 11:46:19 AM
Pending:
Netherlands Team Total Over 1 -131 v Germany (1 unit)
  • After all of their chances to score against Denmark I just don't see them not netting at least one against the Germans.  I find it hard to believe they play for a draw here so I think they will press and exploit a hole or two in the German defense.  Not convinced in their defense so I can't back them yet but I do think they can net a few.  This could be an exciting game...
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#64
Posted: 6/13/2012 4:36:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by arkadymo:


Yup, already had that play in mind, just going to wait to lock it in.  Germany only scored 1 and Netherlands were held scoreless but I can't imagine that happening again.





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#65
Posted: 6/13/2012 11:22:08 PM
Record: 4-9-4 -1.912 units

Futures (all 1 unit):
Holland to win +690
Italy to reach the Semi Final +225
Group D to be highest scoring +350
Russia to win Group A +160
Greece to qualify from Group A +170
Poland to finish last in Group A +350
Holland to win Group B +195
Denmark to finish last in Group B -168
Italy to win Group C +325
Ireland to finish last in Group C -130
France to win Group D +180
Ukraine to qualify from Group D +140
England to finish last in Group D +500

Results:
Poland TT u0.5 +240 (1 unit) LOSS
Russia +125 (1 unit) pk -129 (1 unit) WIN
Netherlands -130 (1 unit) -1 +112 (1 unit) LOSS
HT: Netherlands +310 (1 unit) LOSS
Portugal TT u0.5 +186 (1 unit) TT u1 -116 (1 unit) WIN
Spain TT u1 +171 vs Italy (1 unit) PUSH
HT: Italy v Spain u1 +128 (1 unit) LOSS
Ireland TT u0.5 +123 (1 unit) LOSS
France pk -146 (1.5 units) PUSH
HT: France pk, -0.5 +116 (1 unit) LOSS
Ukraine v Sweden BTTS -105 (1 unit) WIN
HT: Ukraine pk, -0.5 +127 (1 unit) WIN
Greece v Czech Republic u2 +101 (1 unit) u2 +124 (0.5 units) LOSS
HT: Greece v Czech Republic u3 +170 (1 unit) PUSH
Russia pk -143 (1.5 units) +145 (0.5 units) LOSS
Denmark +0.5 +104 (1 unit) LOSS
Netherlands TT o1 -131 (1 unit) PUSH

Pending:
Italy +136 (2 units)
Ireland +1.5 +107 (1 unit)
France v Ukraine o2 -115 (1.5 units)
England v Sweden u2 +128 (1 unit)
Russia v Greece o2.5 +109 (1 unit)
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#66
Posted: 6/13/2012 11:22:28 PM
Another frustrating day; I was leaning over but decided to use the Netherlands TT angle instead and it costs me a wager.  Denmark outplays Portugal in the second half but just can't hold on for the draw.  I hope now they at least come in last in the group to at least net me something out of that horrible ending.  Excited for tomorrow; the more I look at Italy v Croatia the more I think it could be a romp, so I added a unit.  The other game I look forward to is Ukraine/France so I may add more to that wager tomorrow or Friday.  See you all tomorrow...

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#67
Posted: 6/14/2012 2:39:17 PM
The line movement and the line-ups have been announced; both moving in my favor in my opinion (no wingers for Spain which should mean a congested, ugly game).  Ireland +1.5 +116 for another unit




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#68
Posted: 6/14/2012 4:37:56 PM
Record: 4-11-4 -5.500 units
Futures (all 1 unit):
Holland to win +690
Italy to reach the Semi Final +225
Group D to be highest scoring +350
Russia to win Group A +160
Greece to qualify from Group A +170
Poland to finish last in Group A +350
Holland to win Group B +195
Denmark to finish last in Group B -168
Italy to win Group C +325
Ireland to finish last in Group C -130
France to win Group D +180
Ukraine to qualify from Group D +140
England to finish last in Group D +500
Results:
Poland TT u0.5 +240 (1 unit) LOSS
Russia +125 (1 unit) pk -129 (1 unit) WIN
Netherlands -130 (1 unit) -1 +112 (1 unit) LOSS
HT: Netherlands +310 (1 unit) LOSS
Portugal TT u0.5 +186 (1 unit) TT u1 -116 (1 unit) WIN
Spain TT u1 +171 vs Italy (1 unit) PUSH
HT: Italy v Spain u1 +128 (1 unit) LOSS
Ireland TT u0.5 +123 (1 unit) LOSS
France pk -146 (1.5 units) PUSH
HT: France pk, -0.5 +116 (1 unit) LOSS
Ukraine v Sweden BTTS -105 (1 unit) WIN
HT: Ukraine pk, -0.5 +127 (1 unit) WIN
Greece v Czech Republic u2 +101 (1 unit) u2 +124 (0.5 units) LOSS
HT: Greece v Czech Republic u3 +170 (1 unit) PUSH
Russia pk -143 (1.5 units) +145 (0.5 units) LOSS
Denmark +0.5 +104 (1 unit) LOSS
Netherlands TT o1 -131 (1 unit) PUSH
Italy +136 (2 units) LOSS
Ireland +1.5 +107 (1 unit) +1.5 +116 (1 unit) LOSS
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#69
Posted: 6/14/2012 4:39:20 PM
Pending:
France v Ukraine o2 -115 (1.5 units)
England v Sweden u2 +128 (1 unit)
Russia v Greece o2.5 +109 (1 unit)

Summary:
Bleeding units and it's pretty frustrating.  No excuse just poor capping thus far that I WILL turn around.  Ukraine v France is my strongest lean of the tournament and I plan to add more tomorrow (unfortunately, the line has moved and I may play BTTS for the rest of the units I plan to commit).  See you all tomorrow; please I hope no one is tailing me....

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#70
Posted: 6/14/2012 4:47:00 PM
BTTS?
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#71
Posted: 6/14/2012 5:26:45 PM
Both Teams To Score
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#72
Posted: 6/14/2012 7:24:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Pending:
France v Ukraine o2 -115 (1.5 units)
England v Sweden u2 +128 (1 unit)
Russia v Greece o2.5 +109 (1 unit)

Summary:
Bleeding units and it's pretty frustrating.  No excuse just poor capping thus far that I WILL turn around.  Ukraine v France is my strongest lean of the tournament and I plan to add more tomorrow (unfortunately, the line has moved and I may play BTTS for the rest of the units I plan to commit).  See you all tomorrow; please I hope no one is tailing me....



yeah i guess i didn't have that spain match quite figured out.   like france over.  good luck. 
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#73
Posted: 6/15/2012 8:52:14 AM
Added some to my play on Ukraine / France.  The line has moved but I am still feeling strongly about it.  So, I have 1.5 units of Over 2 -115, 1 unit of Over 3 +242, and 1 unit of BTTS -109.  The bottom line here is I just don't see how Ukraine is going to contain France, especially down their right side.  We saw against Sweden that their RB (or RWB) pressed high up the pitch and Sweden couldn't really make them pay too much, although they did get in behind him at times.  Now, imagine subbing in Ribery with service from Nasri and let's see if that changes the script; of course it does.  I wouldn't be surprised if a goal or two alone are created from attacks down Ukraines right side or France's left side.  On the flip side, Ukraine showed the willingness and ability to attack against Sweden and while both goals might not have been that impressive, they created plenty of opportunities and saw plenty of the ball.  While I'll be rooting for Ukraine, I really think this turns into a blowout; Final Score France 3, Ukraine 1

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#74
Posted: 6/16/2012 9:52:30 AM
My book is being weird about grading my Group Futures wagers so I will update after this round.  I don't look forward to it.  Threw down 1 unit on Czech pk & +0.5 -110; I just don't get why Poland are that big of favorites.  I'm not even sure they're the better team...
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#75
Posted: 6/16/2012 2:30:34 PM
Just to summarize my pending plays......

Pending:
Russia -124 (1 unit)
  • Just don't see how they don't win when Greece is pressing for the win.  They will counter attack the hell out of this weak Greece squad and it could be route.  I will be interested to see how quickly this game gets out of hand...
Russia v Greece o2.5 +109 (1 unit)
  • See above, with Greece needing a win Russia should be able to counter attack effectively...
Czech Republic pk & +0.5 -110 (1 unit)
  • I just am not convinced that Poland is that much better than the Czechs.  When you add in the fact that they're forced to press for the win, I find it hard to justify the short line on the Poles.  The Czechs will pack it in and counter attack when they can.
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