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Author: [Penalty Box] Topic: Black Flowers
ClubDirt send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 5/16/2012 12:59:36 PM
theone, leake has been pretty bad and santana has been good all season with one exception.  the mets are pretty solid at home while the reds are a clear .500 team so far.  this is the biggest line for santana all season so maybe they are telling us something, but other than the bullpen issue, i'm concerned that the mets are only 4-3 in santana's 7 starts and all of them were 1 run games.  while the mets have been better in the last few starts, they are scoring fewer than 3 runs a game for santana.  of course, cincy hasn't done much for leake on offense.  the mets should win this one but there are a few things that are putting me off this game at -135.  good luck.

way to dig deep, gilmo.  that under looks good with those numbers.  i'm not playing anything.  good luck with yours. 


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#27
Posted: 5/16/2012 1:11:37 PM
Good garbage gents
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#28
Posted: 5/16/2012 1:27:00 PM
I'm on two of those..nice hit last night..CD...
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#29
Posted: 5/16/2012 1:32:00 PM
+215's are sweeeet  
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#30
Posted: 5/16/2012 1:59:49 PM

clubdirt sports................

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Getty3
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#31
Posted: 5/19/2012 8:29:05 AM
Does the anti-obvious anti-public rule work in soccer ? I'm thinking if I play the Chelsea/Munich total, I may be the first of 10,000 bets to take the under 2.5. Should I stand on my own island ? 
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#32
Posted: 5/19/2012 10:09:19 AM
yes, getty, to the extent it does in other sports, it does in soccer.  and obviously this match will be bet up as much as any event.

i also see a lot of people on the over.  the over is juiced to $1.12 on 5dimes right now. 

bayern has a good defense and i'm not sure how much chelsea attacks.  i can definitely see a play on the under at close to even money.

i should disclose that my soccer numbers (hovering around even after about 2 years) would be quite a bit better if i didn't bet the champions league matches.


the rays let me down the other day.  i may come back with them today.  what do you think?
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#33
Posted: 5/19/2012 11:35:35 AM
I wouldn't play the Rays right now. Their offense has ground to a screeching halt. The loss of Longoria and Jennings is finally taking it's toll after a brief delay. You'd think after 10 years in the league, Carlos Pena would have learned to take the outside fastball to the opposite field, but no. He'll just pull a ground ball to the 2nd baseman if he hits it at all. And Luke Scott is basically his little white brother with the way he tries to yank everything to right. And Jose Molina is an automatic out. But we knew that. I'm rambling...
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#34
Posted: 5/19/2012 12:40:53 PM
garbage getty, already put it in.  thanks for the response anyway.

interleague has not treated me well.  nevertheless... looking at games where there's not a clear sp advantage and bullpens are either better or comparable. add in the unfamiliarity of the interleague factor and i think it's worth playing a couple of these larger dogs.

also, big mismatch in chicago today with the starting pitchers but not playing it for two reasons.  one, the white sox have the bullpens edge and two, it's the cubs.


MLB

Sides 8-7 +2.11
Totals 0-6  -6.29


Cincy  +144
Pitt +150
Houston +154
TB -110



good luck


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#35
Posted: 5/19/2012 12:53:43 PM
The Twins are playing very well. I played them the last 2 games and will try them again today. Carl "the red hot chili pepper" Pavano 
Good Luck to you as well, CD.
I played that football under at even money. Munich 2-0 ? I think so. 
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#36
Posted: 5/19/2012 1:01:19 PM
could be, getty.  i think bayern wins it. 
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#37
Posted: 5/19/2012 6:44:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Getty3:

Does the anti-obvious anti-public rule work in soccer ? I'm thinking if I play the Chelsea/Munich total, I may be the first of 10,000 bets to take the under 2.5. Should I stand on my own island ? 



getty 
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#38
Posted: 5/20/2012 11:49:02 AM
MLB

Sides 12-7  +7.59
Totals  0-6  6.29


Oakland +135


even though this line was better last night, i'm going to wait a little bit to put this in in case it moves back towards oakland.



hard to ignore the pitching mismatch in milwaukee but it's harder to ignore -215 and milwaukee's horrible bullpen.  two other good starting pitching matches are lee against beckett but philly's bullpen is horrible too.  if either of those games get into a battle of the bullpens, you paid way too much. 

if you believe santana is as bad as his numbers, bass is good value at + money with a strong bullpen advantage but i'm skeptical of the odds plus i'm hesitant to make a play on possibly the worst hitting team and the worst defense in the league.  that's a bad combination.

plus, after yesterday, i'm going light.  the gambling gods are always watching.

good luck.


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#39
Posted: 5/20/2012 11:58:04 AM
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#40
Posted: 5/20/2012 12:05:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

MLB


Sides 12-7  +7.59
Totals  0-6  6.29


Oakland +135


even though this line was better last night, i'm going to wait a little bit to put this in in case it moves back towards oakland.



hard to ignore the pitching mismatch in milwaukee but it's harder to ignore -215 and milwaukee's horrible bullpen.  two other good starting pitching matches are lee against beckett but philly's bullpen is horrible too.  if either of those games get into a battle of the bullpens, you paid way too much. 

if you believe santana is as bad as his numbers, bass is good value at + money with a strong bullpen advantage but i'm skeptical of the odds plus i'm hesitant to make a play on possibly the worst hitting team and the worst defense in the league.  that's a bad combination.

plus, after yesterday, i'm going light.  the gambling gods are always watching.

good luck.




That # is solely based on Grienke's career @ home/Miller Park  -  he's coming off back-to-back NO Earned Run performance, and my 'm.o.' is hopping all over the fade-train against a pitcher coming off a start where he allowed no runs across home plate... but I can't/won't do it in this case.  Well, not yet, anyways.  Game doesn't start till 11am, GiLz time.



Best of Luck today, CD.    


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#41
Posted: 5/20/2012 12:39:30 PM
gilmo, marquis is a disaster.  greinke is money.  but outside of that, -215 seems high.  good luck if you play the dog.  anything can happen, especially in interleague. 
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#42
Posted: 5/20/2012 12:39:44 PM
mit 
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#43
Posted: 5/21/2012 9:07:07 AM
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#44
Posted: 5/21/2012 11:22:43 AM
theone 


some good pitchers on the mound today. 

was looking at st. louis (too expensive) and baltimore but probably won't play anything today.

good luck. 
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#45
Posted: 5/21/2012 1:16:24 PM

i like the reds and d backs today dunno yet though..........

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#46
Posted: 5/23/2012 12:01:02 PM
rickster 

let's run it back.  if they can beat up on timmy, surely the a's can handle jeff weaver.  i didn't know he was still in the league. 

MLB 

Sides 13-7  +8.94
Totals  0-6  -6.29


Oakland +146


good luck


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#47
Posted: 5/23/2012 12:13:48 PM
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#48
Posted: 5/23/2012 12:21:50 PM
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#49
Posted: 5/23/2012 2:32:44 PM

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#50
Posted: 5/23/2012 2:34:55 PM
Oakland Athletic Underdog!  


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