O/U System

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: O/U System
thebird40 PM thebird40
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Posted: 8/18/2012 10:05:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bruin95:

Don't know about you guys, but there will be no D game for me in the Reds series.  I hate unders to begin with and not about to risk a month of winners on one bet.
I hear yea bro! Not sure yet myself, if I don't bet it, definitely will go under!
CannedGoods PM CannedGoods
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Posted: 8/19/2012 11:11:49 AM
Well...we all know what's happening today guys...

CHC @ CIN D-U
CannedGoods PM CannedGoods
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Posted: 8/19/2012 2:57:27 PM
C'mon Latos get your garbage together
CannedGoods PM CannedGoods
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Posted: 8/19/2012 3:36:00 PM
Well there you have it guys...you win some, you lose some.  Dusty Baker's a dumb darn and cost us this one for sure, shoulda pulled Latos...oh well.  Onwards and upwards.
CannedGoods PM CannedGoods
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Posted: 8/19/2012 3:46:26 PM
Unless of course by some miracle they play 4-4 into the 17th inning and run out of pitchers and call it a tie?!
BigTenWatto PM BigTenWatto
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Posted: 8/19/2012 7:13:08 PM
I think, far as I can tell from this thread, the system is 12-1. The four game Cincy chase basically wiped out all the profit from the 12 wins. 12 wins at $100, minus the four martingale chase actually puts me down a little juice. Lets hope moving forward from Monday we get back on the profit train, I enjoy this low juice system.

CannedGoods PM CannedGoods
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Posted: 8/19/2012 8:58:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:

I think, far as I can tell from this thread, the system is 12-1. The four game Cincy chase basically wiped out all the profit from the 12 wins. 12 wins at $100, minus the four martingale chase actually puts me down a little juice. Lets hope moving forward from Monday we get back on the profit train, I enjoy this low juice system.



I appreciate you sticking around.  I feel terrible thinking I cost people real money.

I got thinking...maybe we're being too greedy.  I personally HATE losing systems....I'm a perfectionist, I want perfect haha. We should only be taking the strong teams.  Less plays, but less worrys.  Take teams like Philly where they'd literally had an over in EVERY series this season.  Then again this is still young so maybe it's a garbage system.  Don't know yet.

As for the record, original "overall season" is 17-1 since I started tracking.  Home vs. Road record is 11-1. Let's hunker down and crush this.
hardyvault PM hardyvault
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Posted: 8/19/2012 11:13:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CannedGoods:





I got thinking...maybe we're being too greedy.  I personally HATE losing systems....I'm a perfectionist, I want perfect haha. We should only be taking the strong teams.  Less plays, but less worrys.  Take teams like Philly where they'd literally had an over in EVERY series this season.  Then again this is still young so maybe it's a garbage system.  Don't know yet.

I was thinking along the same lines... looking at the Rockies/Mets, the Rockies are a solid 55% over (over all) but on the road they're 54% under. If these numbers are right, it might be a series to steer clear of.
hardyvault PM hardyvault
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Posted: 8/19/2012 11:25:05 PM
Easy search. Twice in July, both 3 GM series, Ariz & in Wash, three unders for the Rockies
CannedGoods PM CannedGoods
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Posted: 8/20/2012 4:09:50 PM
Well, I don't even feel like posting plays (yes I'm that upset haha), but I will for anyone still following.  Plus I believe by still tracking, we can add some filters in that will help avoid future losses.

"Overall Season" (V1; 21-1 YTD):

KC (56.1%) @ TB (60.2%)         A-U
BAL (55.3%) @ TEX (54.8%)      A-U 
COL (55%) @ NYM (59.3%)       A-O

"Park Factors" (V2;12-1 YTD):
KC (57.1%) @ TB (66.7%)         A-U
BAL (60.3%) @ TEX (55.6%)     A-U

Unofficial:
NYY (57.8%) @ CHW (52.6%) - The Yankees are perfect on the year for unders, I'm guessing that trend continues here against the relatively strong under hitting team in the White Sox.

BOL for those who play.
CannedGoods PM CannedGoods
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Posted: 8/20/2012 4:13:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hardyvault:

Easy search. Twice in July, both 3 GM series, Ariz & in Wash, three unders for the Rockies


I plan on playing it. Mets are perfect on the year (they had one series with 3 unders against Miami but I don't count it bc it happened in April and we don't make any plays in April).
CannedGoods PM CannedGoods
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Posted: 8/21/2012 9:52:49 AM
"Overall Season" (V1; 21-1 YTD):
KC (56.1%) @ TB (60.2%)        
BAL (55.3%) @ TEX (54.8%)       
COL (55%) @ NYM (59.3%)       B-O

"Park Factors" (V2;12-1 YTD):
KC (57.1%) @ TB (66.7%)        
BAL (60.3%) @ TEX (55.6%)    

Unofficial:
NYY (57.8%) @ CHW (52.6%)      B-U
CannedGoods PM CannedGoods
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Posted: 8/22/2012 12:19:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CannedGoods:

"Overall Season" (V1; 21-1 YTD):
COL (55%) @ NYM (59.3%)      

Unofficial:
NYY (57.8%) @ CHW (52.6%)      C-U



BigTenWatto PM BigTenWatto
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Posted: 8/23/2012 11:15:31 AM

This system continues to be money in the bank.

Should be a Oak/TB under today.

bruin95 PM bruin95
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Posted: 8/23/2012 2:32:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:

This system continues to be money in the bank.


With all due respect, the loss suffered, this past weekend, pretty much wiped out all the profits made up to date.  The system bounced backed nicely with 3 winners this week, and that's basically the profit so far.  To say that the system is "money in the bank" would not be an accurate statement at this point.  It's still a work in progress.  The one major problem with chase systems is that a single loss can wipe out everything that has been accomplished up to that point.  Just like what happened a few days ago.
DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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Posted: 8/23/2012 6:49:19 PM
I think it would be perfect if you only bet where system 1 and system 2 agree.  The one loss came from system 2 I think. 
BigTenWatto PM BigTenWatto
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Posted: 8/24/2012 12:50:19 AM
Another cash with TB.

NYM over tomorrow?
CHI Sox under, as a stretch?

DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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Posted: 8/24/2012 2:10:16 AM
I'm not touching the Mets for the rest of the season for anything - they barely made the over last series
Posted using a mobile device.
BigTenWatto PM BigTenWatto
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Posted: 8/27/2012 6:10:22 PM
Anyone still paying attention to this? I have TB/Tex u8.5 tonight.
CannedGoods PM CannedGoods
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Posted: 8/27/2012 7:08:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:

Anyone still paying attention to this? I have TB/Tex u8.5 tonight.


Hey boss.  Appreciate you keeping up with this.  I'm done with chases.  I lost 1/3 of my BR on the D-Backs getting swept by the Padres (again). Gonna cap individual games, irage style.  Working on a new MLB totals strategy, haven't come up with anything yet tho...
hardyvault PM hardyvault
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Posted: 9/4/2012 2:47:50 PM
Hey CG, just wanted to thank you for uncovering this system. I'm still playing it, winning 5 to 8 series a week, while not being too greedy. After the Reds series, I went back and found some helpful filters that seem to be working for now. (kept me off the A's last week)

Continued success, bruddah, thanks again.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 10/8/2012 10:03:26 PM

Hey CannedGoods, I went back and tracked each team for O/U home and away. My idea was to wait until May to bet and stop at the end of August. Starting May, only bet if both teams has a % of 54 or higher. Example Wash at the Mets - If Wash was 55% over on the road, the Mets would need to be 54% or higher over at home. If both meet the criteria, chase a 3 or 4 game series. If a 4 game series and A game wins, do NOT start a new 3 game chase with the last 3 games. A push on A game cancels the play. A push on B game still a play for final game, just reduces to a 2 game chase.

After more data was compiled, starting June 1 if one team met the 54% mark the other team only needed to be above 50% (exactly 50% is no play).

Started with the series on 5/1 and ended with last series that started 9/3. Results were 180 wins and 11 losses with 2 losses being two game chases (rained out or a Push involved). With the low juice, up 95.92 units.

Using $25 as a unit, was up $2398.25 with the largest bet being $345.25 on D game of a 4 game chase (only D game all year). The 3 game chase losses were usually around a $220 to $250 hit.

I also checked to see if you bet to win $100 on each game, not a chase, just a straight $100 with low juice and move on after a win just as you would a chase. Overall record of 180-130-4. Even if each loss was -120, you still would have been at $2400 profit on the year. Since most games were at -110 or -115, betting to win a $100 each game would have been a bit better.

A: 102-89

B:56-31-2

C:21-10-2

D:1-0

Can't wait to try this next baseball season.

Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 10/8/2012 10:08:00 PM
Correction 3 of the losses were 2 game chases, 8 went 3 games.
ssquerd PM ssquerd
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Posted: 5/25/2013 7:52:25 PM
Danrules,

Was wondering if you were using this system this season and, if so, with what results.  The back testing you did looked promising.  Thought about using this system myself but wasn't sure if the system had been optimized and/or didn't back test well beyond last season.

Special thanks to you and degen for the work you put in, especially keeping the rpi chase alive.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#100
Posted: 5/26/2013 11:21:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ssquerd:

Danrules,

Was wondering if you were using this system this season and, if so, with what results.  The back testing you did looked promising.  Thought about using this system myself but wasn't sure if the system had been optimized and/or didn't back test well beyond last season.

Special thanks to you and degen for the work you put in, especially keeping the rpi chase alive.

I am doing this O/U system and it's 16-0 since the start of May. Was thinking of posting these plays starting Monday. There are 2 C games today.

Traveling today but I will comment further later tonight.

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