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Author: [Website Promotions] Topic: Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101
CZECH_RAZOR send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SBGGlobal.eu |
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#101
Posted: 5/6/2012 10:27:45 PM
Hey guys, in defense of yysmer, I want to put forth an idea I had that is outside of this system. 

I think there can be indicators on plays in absence of line movement maybe, and let's use Lakers as an example. 

Say Vegas likes Lakers tonight, but they know public is gonna like them too. They really can't make Lakers a significant favorite, maybe at the most Lakers -1.5 or -2. 

So instead they make Denver -2, trying to discourage people off of the Lakers. The public was all over the Lakers anyways, but had they moved the line to Lakers -1 or -1.5 everyone would pound them, and they don't want this. 

So they leave the line at Denver -2 all day, throwing off the sharps and some busters also that will never bet a dog. This is the only angle I can see lakers being a play from, but it is purely hypothetical. 

Anyone have thoughts?  

Again this is just an idea and is 100% OUTSIDE the purviews of my system. This is why I don't mess with games like this, and with lines close to PK's. Because they're hard to read. 

Just saying if it comes either side I won't be surprised. This is why we must avoid lines like this one. 
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#102
Posted: 5/6/2012 10:35:07 PM
Btw EVERYONE we don't hate in this thread, everyone is encouraged win lose or draw. 

I sound opinionated sometimes and apologize in advance if anyone ever feels like I'm being insulting or whatever. I have my own ideas on things but trying to use this thread to have good discussions and iron out any kinks so I can get to $100k!
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#103
Posted: 5/6/2012 10:39:01 PM
SYSTEM IS ROCKING GUYS!!  

13-6 for the week
1-0 today
4-0 this thread

+$180 today 
+$720 this thread
+$3720 total bankroll  

 That's about as good a start as I could hope for. Tomorrow we ride!
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#104
Posted: 5/6/2012 10:40:55 PM
Btw the 13-6 "for the week" stat is getting to be a bit of a misnomer. It's actually since starting the system but that was more like 10 days ago, so not gonna say for the week anymore, just YTD. 
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#105
Posted: 5/6/2012 10:42:52 PM
The total has slowed and we knew it was suspect due to it bouncing around. Only directional move on the total was too close to tip off and might have been adjusted for the public, which is why we no-played it. 

Denver is looking like it was the play after all, which is all I liked for the game all along. Sigh- not gonna be any value on anything second half either. 

Go Denver 
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#106
Posted: 5/6/2012 10:51:31 PM
If you're convinced that the over was the play for the game, then the value is on the over second half. It was a line move and now there's good value. 

I'm just not convinced that it was a play to begin with, so this is a no-play for me. Good luck guys and don't be strangers. Gonna continue with the system tomorrow. 
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#107
Posted: 5/6/2012 10:55:38 PM
You don't really throw the sharps off. If the number is off to them(each is different in how much it would make a play), they will bet it. Also, I beg to differ that they "usually" put the play in close to game time(someone stated that in your thread), it's for different reasons.
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#108
Posted: 5/6/2012 11:40:48 PM
Hey bunny thanks for the opinion welcome to thread. 

I didn't say they put it in late, someone else said that. 

The other thing was just something I was thinking about, but did state it was just an idea and not a part of my system. 

Thanks for visiting the thread, we're looking to have good discussions here. 

I only had one system play today, and that was the bulls under. 4-0 in this thread so far 
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#109
Posted: 5/6/2012 11:41:06 PM
Hey Czech. Definitely agree with your post #101. Theres definitely intangibles to look for. Denver definitely looked like a pick earlier but when the moved back to -2 that was a no play. I've been burnt many times making an early bet because of line movement and it seems that almost everytime the line moves the other direction right before the game that the public wins. Therefore I believe Lakers might cover this game. But I had no bet either way so all is good. Lets keep workin together to bust the bookies guys. GLTA
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#110
Posted: 5/6/2012 11:50:48 PM
GUYS THINGS ARE GETTING HOT IN HERE!!

W4 for the thread, W5 on Streak, and W9 for the week and counting!!

13-6 ats with W9 and counting. I'd say we're hot!! 

Tomorrow we ride hard! 
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#111
Posted: 5/6/2012 11:52:05 PM
Lol above post meant to read 13-6 YTD (and ats also obviously lol)
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#112
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:01:55 AM
Hey Kendawg,

I think I mentioned in beginning when setting out the rules for the system, that I avoid lines close to PK's. I didn't explain why though. 

I made good money during the regular season taking +1 or +1.5 teams purely as fade-buster picks. But sometimes I saw reversals, like a team going from -1 to +1. 

The reason I lay off of games close to PK's is because of the possibility of head fakes. My theory is that the public is going to like a -1 to -2 team pretty much all the time, but Vegas knows this also. 

Say I like a team that is +1, and then the line moves in my favor (supposedly) making them -1?  I make this a no-play, because I assume that Vegas knows what it's doing, and is moving this line to draw money onto my side, meaning it is not a sharp play after all. 

So I made the rule to avoid lines close to pick em's, and by that I mean lines with 1.5 or so. Denver doesn't qualify under that rule, since the line was -2, but a 2-pt line is pushing it for me and the closest it can be for me to consider a system play. 

The truth is those tight lines have a lot of variables, and/or intangibles saw you said, and some of the moves hit and some are head fakes, etc etc, and I just decided to avoid them all. 

I'm trying to cultivate this system to produce a solid 60%+, and honestly, hopefully better, and it has so far in the reg season and (after game 1) in the post season as well. 

There are a lot of plays and strategies that can be profitable, but for my intents and purposes those type games don't qualify. 
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#113
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:06:40 AM
The analysis on the latest line movement was correct in the end...
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#114
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:10:57 AM
As we speak it's coming in, Lakers and the under. 

This is where I usually look back and say, okay, the line total bounced around and I knew it was fishy, so no surprise on the under. As for the side, well, see post 101, plus the fact that the line did go back to -2 pre-game. 

Guys, we had indicators for every possible side on this game, it was fishy all the way around and it was a NO-PLAY. this is also why I spelled out that I only look for progressive and directional line moves. 

The total went up progressively late, yes, but before that it bounced around. DISQUALIFIED. 

The side went down 1/2 pt late, and before that bounced around. DISQUALIFIED

This is where discipline comes into play, and following the system. I fully admit I can be a buster on my own, BUT IF YOU FOLLOW THE RULES YOU WILL WIN. 


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#115
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:15:21 AM
Nice win yysmer. It's much more like me to be on a +2 team than a -2 one. But then again usually the public is on the -2 one. 

I still could never be on the lakers tonight, simply because everyone else was. But I explained ad nauseum why there was NO PLAY on the game. 

Just because a side or total hits, or doesn't, doesn't necessarily mean it was a sharp play or not. That's subjective no matter how you slice it. Glad you won your bet though. 

I think we established why there was no sharp play on this game, at least not according to my system.  
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#116
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:16:46 AM
If we can all help each other from making bad bets we will all have more money in our pockets at the end of the week. Great discussion on this thread guys. Keep up the good work and hopefully we can all profit at the end of the day.
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#117
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:17:23 AM
Guys I'm sticking to the script tomorrow, thanks to everyone for sharing their input so far. 

I've put the stats up a few times but am proud of where we're at so here they go again!!

13-6 YTD and on a W9 streak
4-0 this thread, 1-0 today

Those are good numbers!!
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#118
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:30:40 AM
Hey for anyone interested lol check out posts 77, 79, 82, 89-94, etc, and we will see that we ALL had our doubts about Denver and the over...

and thus according to Rule #3 = NO PLAY
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#119
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:31:43 AM
#101 mighta hit it on the head also 
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#120
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:41:30 AM
Czech, any ideas on tomorrow? I know you don't like 1.5 lines but the Clippers my man ( I know I look like a noob with my post count but I just joined, I'm 4-1 in the playoffs and overall a good record too as well as following your guide, it really helps)

The clippers! I just look at the matchups and it astounds me that Memphis would even have a chance. What do you think?

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#121
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:47:27 AM
Hey Czech which site do you use for your bet %s? I really like to have several sources. Thats why I use pregame.com and scoresandodds.com. Scoresandodds.com uses 7 of the top sportsbooks to get thier %s. Just click on betting trends at the top of the page but I would like to know what you use just so I have another comparison.
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#122
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:56:50 AM
Hey Kendawg,

I've been having a good discussion with another member about the topic you just brought up about bet%...

Up until now, basically, I've just been using Covers data. The other member was telling me to look at a couple different sites checking real betting percentages, and then we were having a discussion about their importance. 

For some reason, my system has always worked just fine off of Covers Consensus data, even though it's not real money, and we were talking about why. I don't know, but my theory on it is it shows us an honest opinion of what people like. 

I'm a perfect example, because on the contests I click everything before studying the games and everything. I OFTEN pick a side and/or total on there and then bet AGAINST it later that day. I do it all the time. But most busters out there probably bet the same things they're clicking because that's what they like. 

I don't know all I know it was working, but I am only recently expanding my horizons also. That's a long winded way of saying I don't know much about those other sites whatsoever but am looking to learn them also. 
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#123
Posted: 5/7/2012 1:00:41 AM
Alexsean, 

What's up man welcome to the thread. We welcome all discussion from anyone interested in here. We're all here to bring down the books dude for real. 

I don't know yet about tomorrow, and I only get biased when I look the night before. One of my rules of engagement is not deciding on a game til it's almost game time. That saved our (the system's, not mine lol) behind tonight from making a play on the Denver game. 

This is paramount to success guys: wait until last minute. Is so hard sometimes thinking you need to put it in but YOU DON'T. The more information the better, you don't need to worry about that potential 1/2 pt move, and you need to see those moves. 

I'll check all the games tomorrow and we'll be saddling up to 
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#124
Posted: 5/7/2012 1:04:00 AM
Goodnight fellas. Looking forward to discussion tomorrow
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#125
Posted: 5/7/2012 1:05:43 AM
Ah. I understand. I like the Clippers tomorrow and Spurs UNDER. But yep, it would be a very bad idea to bet any tonight. I am just throwing ideas out there to think about whilst in sleep. 
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