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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: IRAGE ODDS BUSTER STRATEGY
peter1988 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#926
Posted: 8/28/2012 12:12:38 PM
Nice spot for CLE to pick up a W with this strat if the line keeps falling.
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#927
Posted: 8/28/2012 5:28:08 PM
Looks like Arizona is going to be good to go. Remember to check back just before game time to ensure Cin did not climb over -110.
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irage
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#928
Posted: 8/29/2012 12:26:49 AM
I think it's cool you guys kept the thread going, but my numbers show the spreads get really tight around the 17th of the month. It also shows the winning percentage dropping below 50%, which is why I decided to end in July. Some teams use the strategy of staying close in game count and then turn it up to make a run for the post season.

Good work none the less.

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#929
Posted: 8/29/2012 3:33:40 PM
ARI just moved into the "zone".  Sitting +102 right now.  I think I'll drop 0.5 unit on them.  They're on a losing streak which I don't like but the lines been moving in their favour consistently meanwhile public is backing a pretty good pitcher in Latos.  Plus they're at home.  Corbin's been pretty good so far too.  Let's go D-Backs!!
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#930
Posted: 8/29/2012 5:07:41 PM

Am at work, missed the Arizona game but, looking good so far.

Pitt and Min are in range right now however, neither fits the pitching criteria. If both stay short dogs I will drop a half unit on them each.

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#931
Posted: 8/29/2012 5:49:23 PM
Bah.  Gives up 3 runs.  Maybe they can still pull it out...

I'm definitely betting PIT.  Don't know if I have the balls to bet MIN though...
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#932
Posted: 8/29/2012 11:45:50 PM
Both Pit and Minny cash for 0.5 units. Beauty. Will update record in the morning.Currently watching my tail of Louis IV's Bos over cash.
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#933
Posted: 8/30/2012 10:06:49 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:

Both Pit and Minny cash for 0.5 units. Beauty. Will update record in the morning.Currently watching my tail of Louis IV's Bos over cash.


Right now CLE is in the zone at +103...I know they should be automatic "avoiding the sweep" but I really can't lay money on them.  Hoping OAK pulls above -110 so I can comfortably bet them.  Parker isn't amazing on the road but he's better than Masterson and Cleveland is sliding and clearly has no motivation to win now that their season is done.  Oakland wants that Wild Card.  It's A's or nothing for me but I'll likely just pass.
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#934
Posted: 8/30/2012 11:49:26 AM
ESPN has CLE (Masterson #2 pitcher), has pitched well and the Tribe is looking to avoid a 4 game sweep (Parker #4 pitcher). And the line is moving in CLE favor... has And the line is moving in CLE favor...
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#935
Posted: 8/30/2012 12:01:56 PM
Oh, Parker doesn't pitch well on the road and he's a 2nd year pitcher.
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#936
Posted: 8/30/2012 12:27:52 PM

Just got into the message forum, for some reason my work computer wasn't letting me log in.

Cle, Phi and CHW are all plays. CHW is a full unit play.

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#937
Posted: 8/30/2012 1:08:10 PM
Jumped on CHW, also bet Philly.  I like the Phillies as a home dog to avoid the sweep even though they're facing a very capable pitcher in Niese.  Jumped on the under as well. Should be interesting, hope Kendrick can keep up!!
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#938
Posted: 8/30/2012 5:51:32 PM
StL is a go for half a unit tonight.

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#939
Posted: 9/3/2012 2:02:15 PM
Haven't been around much this weekend but, today looks good for Arizona and Oakland.

I will be on Arizona and Oakland for a full unit each.
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#940
Posted: 9/3/2012 8:56:30 PM
Are you kidding me? Did anyone watch the D'Backs game?

Holy darn. They had a 4 run lead and gave up a run in the 7th, two in 8th and one in the 9th and finally one in the 10th. Now THAT is a GREAT bullpen.

When it rains it pours....and I lose money.
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#941
Posted: 9/4/2012 6:30:40 PM
Balt should be a play tonight.
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irage
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#942
Posted: 9/4/2012 8:10:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:

Are you kidding me? Did anyone watch the D'Backs game?

Holy darn. They had a 4 run lead and gave up a run in the 7th, two in 8th and one in the 9th and finally one in the 10th. Now THAT is a GREAT bullpen.

When it rains it pours....and I lose money.


I watched that game, because I was on the Giants.
Did you see the line movement on that game? When I saw that the Giants were the DOG I jumped all over it. I was happy when they scored 4 right off the bat and then sweated out the rest of the game.
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#943
Posted: 9/4/2012 9:33:34 PM
Ya, that's actually the one problem I have with this strategy. I am not always around a computer at game time. Ari/SF were both -103 at like 1:30, so I went ahead and bet Ari. Then there is really late line mov't. Oh well, there is not much I can do. I am far from a pro and work/family do get in the way - damnit.
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irage
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#944
Posted: 9/4/2012 10:28:53 PM
You've done a great job keeping the thread alive. It takes a tremendous amount of time to pour over stats and lines looking for the one or two games worth playing. At least your priorities aren't fucked up like some of us. Family first, everything else second!

Tip: Don't force a play, there is no magic bullet or formula to win everyday. If you can't put the time in, just pass and wait for another day.
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#945
Posted: 9/4/2012 10:56:13 PM
Updating record after Bal full unit win tonight. By the way, thanks for the kind words Irage. I am nothing but your Padwan here Jedi Master.

For those that don't want to look back through the thread I am using a twisted version of this strategy, as lots of plays get filtered out by the pitching ERA match-up. So, full unit ($100) for pitching filter, half unit if not.

Bos (h) +101 L -50
Stl (h) +101 W +50.50
Col (f) +102 W +102
Tor (f) +101 L -100
Tex (f) -101 W +100
Oak (h) +100 W +50
LAD (f) +103 W +103
Pit (f)+131 L -100.00 (weird line move, hope you stayed away)
CHW (h)-103 W +50
CHW (h) -101 W +50
Cin (h) +105 W +52.50
LAD (f) +100 L -100 (line changed last minute, hope you stayed away)
Cin (h)+105, W +52.50
Bal (h) -103 W +50
Mil (h) +108, W +54
CHC (h) +106, W+53
ATL (h) -101, W +50
KC (F) +102 L -100 (late, late line move, hope you stayed away)
Ari (f) +100 L -100
Pit (h) -101 W +50
Min (h) +100 W +50
CHW (F) +102 L -100
Phi (H) +102 W +52.50
CLE (H) +102 L -50
StL (h) +100 L -50
Ari (f) -103 L -103 (late, late line move, hope you stayed away)
Oak (f) +100 L -100
Bal (f) -102 W +100

Total: 17-11, +120
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#946
Posted: 9/5/2012 12:32:31 PM

Tons of line mov't today on Phi/Cin.

I will be on Phi for a full unit. Pitching match-up favours Halladay, not by much but, enough. Plus he is significantly better vs. LH and CIncy has 4 LH. Also, based on OPS Phi is favoured by a full run.

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#947
Posted: 9/5/2012 3:46:17 PM
Stayed away from Oak. Too many variables support LAA in my opinion.
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#948
Posted: 9/5/2012 8:40:02 PM
Good call on avoiding Oak. I stayed away from Bal (sweep) and Mil (new pitcher, no data). Try and follow Irage's advice to be a little more picky. 

Maybe should have played Mil, looking good.
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#949
Posted: 9/6/2012 5:07:46 PM

Philly cashed yesterday.

Yanks line has stayed around +100, -101 all day. I am going out for the night so, I am putting in a half unit bet now on the Yanks. This has not paid off in the past, as line could move in Yanks direction. Watch the line at game time.

Yanks -101 , half unit.

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#950
Posted: 9/20/2012 7:40:01 AM
can someone explain to me what this system is about? :) Or link to a page that can
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