Posted: 4/13/2012 11:07:22 AM
I have actually worked with the 3 game chase.. you would be betting 1% , 11% then 88% .. the math does support this somewhat, if the intent is say just to double your stake, instead of trying to turn $50 into 5k .. The numbers are
favorite wins by one run in about 18% of games
in the 3 game chase you would need about 85 wins or so to double your intial stake
as per the streak calculator found at SBR, there is about a 33% chance of ruin (series length 85,streak length 3, loss probability 18%) ..so basically you are getting paid 1-1 on something that should have odds of about -166 ( i think) ..which, in theory, should be profitable over a large sample..
If i was going to do this, i would probably run 3 or 4 simultaneous chases, therefore if one busts, i still make proift when the other 3 come in. As well, i would be more selective in games, and try to stick with road faves, which win by 1 run about 1% less of the time, 1% which as per the SBR streak calculator reduces your risk of ruin down to about 17%..