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Author: [Pro Golf] Topic: Houston Discussion
blairaj send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
blairaj
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#1
Posted: 3/26/2012 10:01:09 PM
I'm gonna try something a little different this week.  Maybe we can do a thread per tournament for general discussion about the actual golf tournament that's going on, and keep the BS that doesn't make us any money in the picks threads.  So, I'll get it started:

1) Length - I think there's a little more opportunity for the bombers to take advantage than we've had in a lot of the recent tourneys. 
2) Get Low - one thing I take a quick look at on tourneys like this is just taking a quick look to see how many times recently someone has gotten to double digits.  I think you lose that with looking at scoring average, and adjusted average, etc.  Last year Phil took this one deep into double digits, so I want somebody comfortable getting that low.
3) Who will be playing to win the Houston Open v. who will be using the Houston Open to work on that final tweak for the masters?  Who likes to play "swing" v. who likes to play "golf"?   
4) Scrambling from the rough - this course ranks among the toughest.
5) par 5 performance

A couple guys I have my eyes on (and will show up in Danchuck's contest thread) are:
1) Badds - has the length, scrambling, par 5 performance, and a good history here
2) Stanley - definitely has the length and par 5 performance and has a 1st and 2nd in two of the lower scoring tournaments of the year (not counting the 2 pro-ams).  

One guy that continues to baffle me is Els.  I watch him putt and I swear he misses the line more often and by more than anyone else that gets televised.  I see that and I just want to insta-fade.  But somehow, he was among the leaders last week in SGP, at least before Sunday, I'm not sure where he ended up and he just keeps getting high up on the leaderboards.  He's been playing under a lot of pressure for a lot of weeks now, and has had some very disappointing sundays each of the last 2 weeks.  It wouldn't surprise me at all if all that gets to be just too much and he comes out and lays a total egg this week.

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#2
Posted: 3/27/2012 9:00:26 AM
I think bullet #3 is a valid question. This tourney can be a good live warm up and swing tweaking session to get ready for the big dance next week. Should be a good tourney as usual.


I'm gunna roll with Bryce Molder.
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AJLightning
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#3
Posted: 3/27/2012 2:27:36 PM

Good idea!

One thing though....Els is a Hall of Famer, I don't think "it will all be too much" for him this week. He's been under pressure for a few weeks now and AMAZINGLY he's put himself in position to win. How? I don't know, but the Old person just keeps showing up on Sunday's!

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#4
Posted: 3/27/2012 2:39:12 PM
GIR, Scrambling and Putting big this week.  

Right now I'm looking at;

Bads
Molder
Stroud
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AJLightning
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#5
Posted: 3/27/2012 3:16:37 PM

Can someone find the list of guys that are on the bubble this week?

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#6
Posted: 3/27/2012 5:47:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AJLightning:

Can someone find the list of guys that are on the bubble this week?


Bubble for the Masters?  If you are not in the Masters to this point the only way to get in is with a win this week.

The top 50 in the world at the conclusion of the Arnold Palmer were all invited.  Only way now is to win.
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blairaj
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#7
Posted: 3/27/2012 7:41:20 PM
I'm gonna be getting a lot picker on my full tourney plays, as I've not been fairing nearly as well on them as I have on the single rounds.  On my first pass through, not surprisingly, a lot of them that I like are guys that have been mentioned somewhere on here.

Schwartzel-108 o Bradley
McDowell-115 o Els
Baddeley-128 o Fowler
Molder-111 o Moore 
Yang+113 o Bjorn
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#8
Posted: 3/27/2012 9:06:48 PM
A couple more dogs that I'm looking deeper into: 

Oosthuizen+120 o Hanson
Harrington+110 o Allenby
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AJLightning
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#9
Posted: 3/28/2012 10:27:35 AM

No picks for me this week guys. I'm sure your all very disappointed too.... 

My brother and I are in a fishing tournament at Lake Fork this weekend. If any of you guys know anything about bass fishing, then you should know about Lake Fork. BIG, BIG tournament called the Dodge Mega Bass Tournament!! They have a weigh-in every hour, at the top of the hour and the top prize is a new Dodge Ram pickup!!! Every friggin hour they give a truck away!! Last year a dude won a truck with a 2.35 lb. bass!!

Good luck on your plays fellas!!!   

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AJLightning
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#10
Posted: 3/28/2012 1:55:01 PM

I kind of like Ryan Moore this week....he led the field in GIR's and was T25 in SGP at Bayhill...good formula for Houston.

Tough matchup with Bryce though...he's top 20 in both GIR's and SGP.

Molder has him in Scrambling by a mile, but other than that they are close as far as stats go.

Moore (Ev) vs. Molder for the tourny.

Also like Stricker (-130) over Phil

Campbell (-120) over Verplank

Els (-115) over Wagner

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AJLightning
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#11
Posted: 3/28/2012 2:00:50 PM
I'm going to play at least one of those, just to have some action.....
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#12
Posted: 3/28/2012 6:15:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AJLightning:

I'm going to play at least one of those, just to have some action.....

If I was to pick one of those 4, it would definitely be Campbell.
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#13
Posted: 3/28/2012 6:30:44 PM
Here's an interesting tidbit:

As good a year as Keegan Bradley had last year, he only got to double digits once, and that was the 5-round Humana.

He's already done it twice this year:  ToC, and Doral.
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#14
Posted: 3/28/2012 7:20:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AJLightning:

I'm going to play at least one of those, just to have some action.....
      u said no plays u were fishing    bol win the truck
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blairaj send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
blairaj
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#15
Posted: 3/28/2012 9:45:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AJLightning:

I kind of like Ryan Moore this week....he led the field in GIR's and was T25 in SGP at Bayhill...good formula for Houston.

Tough matchup with Bryce though...he's top 20 in both GIR's and SGP.

Molder has him in Scrambling by a mile, but other than that they are close as far as stats go.

Moore (Ev) vs. Molder for the tourny.


I'd like Moore in a tournament that I expected to be played a lot closer to par.  If scores are anything like last year though (which I'm banking on in a lot of my picks), I definitely favor Molder by quite a bit.

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AJLightning
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#16
Posted: 3/29/2012 9:11:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by blairaj:


I'd like Moore in a tournament that I expected to be played a lot closer to par.  If scores are anything like last year though (which I'm banking on in a lot of my picks), I definitely favor Molder by quite a bit.

Good point!  

I ended up playing Campbell (-125) over Verplank for 2 units...hopefully Verplank is still not 100% after his surgery. Campbell has always done well in Houston.

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AJLightning
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#17
Posted: 3/29/2012 2:46:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by blairaj:

Here's an interesting tidbit:

As good a year as Keegan Bradley had last year, he only got to double digits once, and that was the 5-round Humana.

He's already done it twice this year:  ToC, and Doral.

Good start for Keegan today. Man I'll tell you what, he's starting to impress me now. He always seems to be around the top. I may have to jump on the bandwagon.

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#18
Posted: 3/29/2012 3:18:39 PM
This tourney is gonna be a mess.  Looking like there's no way they'll go 72 holes if the forecast is right.  I can't see any way they'd do a monday finish on master's week.
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#19
Posted: 3/29/2012 6:25:43 PM
booo. Is it going to continue round 1 today at least?
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AJLightning
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#20
Posted: 4/2/2012 1:21:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AJLightning:

Good point!  

I ended up playing Campbell (-125) over Verplank for 2 units 

 

63-55-12 YTD

+8.15 Units

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#21
Posted: 4/2/2012 3:03:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AJLightning:

 

63-55-12 YTD

+8.15 Units

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AJLightning
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#22
Posted: 4/3/2012 10:26:15 AM
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