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Author: [Boxing] Topic: Loving this...
Mack05 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#1
Posted: 4/10/2012 11:10:53 AM
Chavez -300 against Andy Lee. I have already locked in a LARGE bet on this fight. -300 is quite simply a ridiculous price. Take it now as this will be closer to -600 before fight time. Chavez for sure gets a lot of stick and he is not very good, but at Texas (essentially at home) against Andy Lee is a great spot for him.

Lee is the most over rated fighter that I have seen in some time. Even if he fights well, he would have to be miles better to win on the cards. That aint going to happen. Lee is not the big puncher he thinks he is or that some observers think he is. Arum knew this was a safe fight that would make money.

Lee is mentally fragile, more then people realise. I would have priced this -1000 to Chavez. Lee has been hand picked and is being fed to the dogs here...Easiest play of the year..
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#2
Posted: 4/10/2012 11:38:33 AM
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cd2010
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#3
Posted: 4/10/2012 1:52:49 PM
 Agree, I liked this match-up as soon as it was made, Chavez will win and then we'll get Sergio and Chavez , can't wait.
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#4
Posted: 4/10/2012 10:26:31 PM
Chavez fighting in Texas where he can use PED's.  I found it funny how the commision  "forgot" (literally there words) to test Chavez.  
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#5
Posted: 4/11/2012 11:11:33 AM

a manny steward fighter would never be a 10-1 underdog. he doesnt train fighters for the money, he trains them for his ego. steward obviously has faith in lee or he wouldnt make the time or put his name on him. i think manny is going to be successful in taking away jrs left hook and the texas judging will not be corrupt as they are being scrutinized after the kirland/molina and jr/rubiopost fight test debacle. i do not believe that there will be hometown judging in this fight as texas has very little room for error.

chavez jr is an accident waiting to happen. i would never bet on this guy again after his zbik fight and dui arrest.

 

 

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#6
Posted: 4/11/2012 9:20:24 PM

www.freep.com/article/20120307/SPORTS18/203070396/Emanuel-Steward-showcases-my-left-handed-Tommy-Hearns-Andy-Lee

apparantly, lee has stayed in one of stewards homes for the last six years while training with him. and steward, one of the most revered trainers and spokesmans for the sport, is now comparing him to his tommy hearns.

im really starting to like this play especially with heavy plus money, the probablilty of no homefield judging and a do or die fight for lee.

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#7
Posted: 4/12/2012 9:33:34 PM
Lee is a bum.  JCC by UD
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#8
Posted: 4/13/2012 11:13:22 AM

a likely scenario but i wouldnt count out lee, especially with steward in his corner. he showed a lot of heart in a come-from-behind ko against previously undefeated mcewan(roach-trained and gbp fighter) and jr is there to be hit.

if lee lands 77 total punches in rounds one and two like light-hitting zbik did, jr is not going to make it to the final bell. jr's been feasting on a lot of 5'10" mw's where he is the bigger guy come fight night and lee is going to be the same size.

imo, there are much better fights to be laying 3-1 on.

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#9
Posted: 4/13/2012 5:19:27 PM
I think this will be a tough fight. Lee got a good set of whiskers. He kinda stands straight up and seems easy to hit. Neither guy has fought anyone really tough as to make a move up. I like what Qncyk1 says. There are better 3-1's out there. I'm gonna put my money on a value dog and hope that Manny has spotted his fighter well. Hoping JC gets discouraged when he hits Lee and he don't go away.
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#10
Posted: 4/13/2012 7:56:38 PM

and zbik getting stopped by 40 percent ko ratio sturm after going tooth and nail with jr doesnt help julios case against lee.

you just can bet on a guy who gets a dui(they say that 50 percent of people arrested for dui are alcoholics)12 days before a championship fight.

and his dui was not a bottle of wine with dinner dui at 10:00 at night.

jr was pulled over at 4:30 in the morning.

wtf are you doing out at 4:30 in the morning?

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#11
Posted: 4/18/2012 3:00:21 PM

Chavez has flaws that I'm sure Emmanuel Steward can easily see. Add to the fact that Chavez has only faced 2 southpaws in his career, and then add that Freddie Roach is in the Philippines and overworked when he comes back. Lee's boxing IQ is definately still improving, and Chavez is an easy target for left uppercuts and right hooks. It takes heart to beat anyone named Chavez but Lee's got it. I can see Chavez getting rocked at some point in this fight. Lee is not some bum-behind John Duddy or a light-hitting Sbik. He's a hard hitting southpaw with height (has Chavez ever fought anyone taller than himself?) and the heart to withstand. Lee of course has his flaws too - bad mobility and no head movement but I wouldn't feel so confident in Chavez as a 3-1 favorite.

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#12
Posted: 4/18/2012 4:19:27 PM
chavez puts a beatdown on this kid. he is on another level, in reality this one should be closer to 6 to 1,
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#13
Posted: 4/18/2012 7:45:42 PM

the last time chavez fought a six footer was 25-percent ko ratio rowland who gave him all he could handle. he also sparred with 154 vanes and there is youtube footage.again, just sparring but vanes held his own if not dominated. both lee and chavez are just a testament to the inadequacy of the entire mw division right now.

when your 154 champs are a 5'6" cotto and a 5'7" canelo you know that there is something seriously wrong.

cotto, canelo, martinez, chavez...

right time, right place.

 

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#14
Posted: 4/18/2012 9:07:33 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by thesoulpurpose:

chavez puts a beatdown on this kid. he is on another level, in reality this one should be closer to 6 to 1,

I'll take the 6-1 how you want to do it?

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#15
Posted: 4/19/2012 2:50:02 PM
it does not matter if the odds are 3 to 1, 6 to 1 or 1million to one, anyone who puts money on lee will lose. people that put money on fighters just because it's good odds are simply throwing their money away, sprinkling your money on longshots is for morons, I am not specifically talking about this fight but all fights in general.
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#16
Posted: 4/19/2012 4:16:26 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by thesoulpurpose:

it does not matter if the odds are 3 to 1, 6 to 1 or 1million to one, anyone who puts money on lee will lose. people that put money on fighters just because it's good odds are simply throwing their money away, sprinkling your money on longshots is for morons, I am not specifically talking about this fight but all fights in general.

 

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#17
Posted: 4/19/2012 5:00:53 PM

ill take that 6-1 for $100.00.

how do you want to do it?

 

 

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#18
Posted: 4/19/2012 5:28:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Qncyk1:

ill take that 6-1 for $100.00.

how do you want to do it?

 

 

I stated that the odds should be around 6 to 1 in reference that lee is getting too much respect here, but the odds are 3 or 4 to 1 depending on your book, last time I checked, so why would anyone bet it at 6?, you usually know what you talking about, but are dead wrong on this one, chavez will beat him pillar to post, he is much to big and strong for the much overrated lee, who in reality ain't garbage,  
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#19
Posted: 4/19/2012 5:59:55 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by thesoulpurpose:

it does not matter if the odds are 3 to 1, 6 to 1 or 1million to one, anyone who puts money on lee will lose. people that put money on fighters just because it's good odds are simply throwing their money away, sprinkling your money on longshots is for morons, I am not specifically talking about this fight but all fights in general.

 hey soul you are right its crazy to throw money away on any old longshot just cause of the odds. I feel theres value with Lee considering who each fighter has fought and probally chavez is thinking like you that he should just roll over this guy. Probally will have a few the night before the fight. Lee is said to be the man at Kronk...Probally not what the hitman was there but anyway Lee is worth a shot if I bet the fight.

 

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#20
Posted: 4/19/2012 7:36:58 PM

well, i dont do writeups because the majority of people here are capable of making their own decisiosn but ill give some points that i feel are valid to refute this as an "easiest play of the year" fight.

lee is trained by manny steward and no steward or roach fighter would ever be a 6-1 dog. ever. the time of steward and roach is extremely valuable and they dont have time to invest in losing boxers .its their legacy they are focused on because they have all the recognition and money that they need.they want champions. like a successful attorney who gets paid on contingency, their main objective is weeding out cases that wont have an efficacious result. im sure that Esplenade agrees with me. the fact that lee has been with steward for over six years tells me that he knows what he has or he would have already shelved him. imo, steward feels that jr will not be able to manhandle lee with infighting, his main attribute, which will only leave jr with his heart and left hook.  if manny is able to successfully take away jr's left hook with a counter right or straight left then all jr will be left with is his heart. eventually, the power of lee which in all likelihood exceeds that of jr's(he does not have heavy hands exemplified by the faces of both rubio and zbik post fight where he threw everything but his kitchen sink) could then become a factor down the stretch. and speaking of roach, his fighter and gbp prospect mcewan was recently KO'd by lee, in which the former had never been knocked down before.

also,  jr's failed drug tests and recent DUI(4:30am) concludes that he probably does not hang out with  the best of company(what friend would allow jr to party at 4:30 AM 12 days before a fight?)

zbik getting ko'd last week by sturm also shows the limited effect of the power of jr., who went tooth and nail in a 12 round decision .inidentally, zbik was a -400 and to think that lee has less of a shot is not worthy of debate. i had jr in this fight and after nine rounds i swore that i would never bet this guy again.

and lastly, there is a good chance that a hometown decision is not in the cards after three big fights with questionable judging that has broiught scrutiny to texas(cloud/campillo, kirkland/molina, and the failed drug test of chavez jr).

i really dont think much of lee or any of the mw's and jr mw's(5'6"cotto, 5'7"canelo, 5'6" bundrage) but this could be a better fight than everyone here thinks.

 

 

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#21
Posted: 4/19/2012 8:40:29 PM
their was high expectations for lee when he turned pro, he eventually was lead to manny stewart and they have become best friends and that is a quote from manny who said that lee was his best friend in boxing, since the original high expectations of lee have crashed to reality ( as he has proven that he is a B- type of guy) manny will obviously continue to train his friend until the end, so this is a different situation, the relationship between manny and andy is not as much about buisiness and legacy, to me it is more now about loyalty and friendship
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#22
Posted: 4/19/2012 9:48:24 PM

so lee would be manny's version of pro-bono work. fair enough as i really dont see a whole lot from him. a southpaw poor mans version of kelly pavlik.

still, chavez doesnt have much himself and lee undeniably has more power. how jr. deals with that straight left and lees comparable height will dictate this fight. hes been winning on heart, output and bullying and i just dont see him bullying around lee and beating him from "pillar to post."

he failed to do that against 5'10" rubio and 5'11"zbik, both of whom weighed no more than 165-170 fight night.

imo, the zbik destruction at the hands of sturm really says a lot about the limited power of chavez.

 

 

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#23
Posted: 4/19/2012 10:13:57 PM
Andy Lee has no chance but the over looks good too.
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#24
Posted: 4/20/2012 6:14:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Qncyk1:

lee is trained by manny steward and no steward or roach fighter would ever be a 6-1 dog. ever. the time of steward and roach is extremely valuable and they dont have time to invest in losing boxers

Manny is training Hearns tonight against Lara who is a 20-1 favorite. What was the odds of McCall vs Lewis in 94? That might have been more than 6-1.

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#25
Posted: 4/20/2012 9:27:36 PM

well i guess i shouldn't have said never. ronald is the son of tommy and tommy made steward. i guess you can say that manny owes it to the hitman.

the emmanuel steward of 94 is not the same steward i was referring to in 2012. no one outside of boxing circles even knew who he was then and he needed the exposure. now, with him commmentating every major hbo fight, he doesnt need the fame or money, something he has an abundance of.

what he doesnt have an abundance of are world champions.

 

 

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