|As the title says, this is going to be an American League only system. I'm not sure if this system already exists, if it does, I apologize, as far as I know it's an original idea. On with it:
Posted: 4/3/2012 9:17:45 PM
If a team loses back to back one-run games, bet on them to win one of their next 4. It's that simple.
My thinking: I thought about this as being analogous to being a handicapper. When the team I bet on loses by one run, it's annoying. When it happens two nights in a row, I get pissed off, and want to win on the third night even more. It also makes some sense in this way: In a one run game, the winning team likely was not better than the losing team that night, something through the course of the game gave them an advantage, or they may have gotten lucky. For the same team to be on the losing side of that scenario back to back games, that third game is a decent bet that the breaks will go their way.
The betting system:
This part can get confusing because it's not a traditional line.
For the first game after the BB losses we either (A) Bet the line to win $100 for a favorite, or (B) Bet $100 to win the line. This bet becomes our "unit" for the chase. The pattern is as follows:
Game 1 - 1 unit
Game 2 - 2 units
Game 3 - 2 units
Game 4 - 4 units
I'll give an example.
Suppose NYM +125 is our play. $100 is our unit for the chase. Whatever the line is going forward, our 1 unit is $100.
Suppose NYM -130 is our play. $130 is our unit for the chase.
Whatever the line is going forward our 1 unit is $130.
From 2009-2011 in the A.L. this system was 113-86 for +49.18 units.
2009 - +11.56
2010 - +28.95
2011 - +9.09
Game 1 bets were 69-45 for +33.08
Game 2 bets were 23-24 for +1.53
Game 3 bets were 12-11 for +3.03
Game 4 bets were 7-4 for +11.54
If I didn't bore the hell out of you, and even if I did, let me know what you think, and BOL.