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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: American League Simple System
BCap888
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BCap888
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#1
Posted: 4/3/2012 9:17:45 PM
As the title says, this is going to be an American League only system. I'm not sure if this system already exists, if it does, I apologize, as far as I know it's an original idea. On with it:

System:
If a team loses back to back one-run games, bet on them to win one of their next 4. It's that simple.

My thinking: I thought about this as being analogous to being a handicapper. When the team I bet on loses by one run, it's annoying. When it happens two nights in a row, I get pissed off, and want to win on the third night even more. It also makes some sense in this way: In a one run game, the winning team likely was not better than the losing team that night, something through the course of the game gave them an advantage, or they may have gotten lucky. For the same team to be on the losing side of that scenario back to back games, that third game is a decent bet that the breaks will go their way.

The betting system:
This part can get confusing because it's not a traditional line.
For the first game after the BB losses we either (A) Bet the line to win $100 for a favorite, or (B) Bet $100 to win the line. This bet becomes our "unit" for the chase. The pattern is as follows:

Game 1 - 1 unit
Game 2 - 2 units
Game 3 - 2 units
Game 4 - 4 units

I'll give an example.
Suppose NYM +125 is our play. $100 is our unit for the chase. Whatever the line is going forward, our 1 unit is $100.

Suppose NYM -130 is our play. $130 is our unit for the chase.
Whatever the line is going forward our 1 unit is $130.

Results:
From 2009-2011 in the A.L. this system was 113-86 for +49.18 units.
2009 - +11.56
2010 - +28.95
2011 - +9.09

Game 1 bets were 69-45 for +33.08
Game 2 bets were 23-24 for +1.53
Game 3 bets were 12-11 for +3.03
Game 4 bets were 7-4 for +11.54

If I didn't bore the hell out of you, and even if I did, let me know what you think, and BOL.
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Luckydan
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#2
Posted: 4/3/2012 11:13:34 PM
Interesting concept. Considering one would have been +33 units from game 1 alone, why bother with the other three game chase? You would have averaged + money on the net 24 games won.

In 2008, my random sampling showed that Baltimore and Cleveland would have killed this 4 game chase. Most of the other teams had a game 4 with high juice to go with the carryover. Tough to lay 9 units + juice to win 1 unit. If you have the guts/bankroll/discipline, I am sure that you could prosper with this system.

I like your AL Dog system better based on your data and my random research. While we know that past performances are not an indicator of current/future results, I would rather risk less to win more. Getting mostly dogs to finish with a 22-18 record (average year) would be more appealing to me. I think we all know the benefit of playing mostly dogs that finish around .500.

Thanks again for bringing this to our attention. I like your reasoning.

Good Luck.
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BCap888
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#3
Posted: 4/3/2012 11:21:15 PM
Yeah I agree with everything you said. As I was writing it was hitting me that the chase was really unnecessary. Just throwing out the point that something that simple could still be profitable.
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akell09
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#4
Posted: 4/4/2012 8:43:11 AM
I like Dan's suggestion about playing only game 1.  Your hitting 60% on game 1's, if you used a labby line I think you would increase you unit winnings even more.  But I too like your dog system better because you never have to increase your wagers when you play it.
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#5
Posted: 4/4/2012 1:39:09 PM

Does it matter if the 3rd game is the beginning of a new series against a different team?

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Posted: 4/4/2012 1:44:52 PM
Also, was the NL a bank roll killer because it lost a lot of game 4's? How'd the NL do if you just bet game 3 like Dan mentioned. 
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BCap888
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#7
Posted: 4/4/2012 3:02:48 PM
No the 3rd game didn't matter who it was against. And I tested a few NL teams and there were just a lot more losing streaks and games and chases that weren't very profitable. It was weird because it was consistent for all 3 years in the AL but the NL was the exact opposite.
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BCap888
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#8
Posted: 4/7/2012 10:26:35 PM
If the White Sox or Yankees lose by one tonight we have our first play. Giants vs. Diamondbacks could be one but I'm only posting A.L. plays.
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bettor2win
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#9
Posted: 4/7/2012 10:35:20 PM
Love it man! Easy. No brainer! Not convoluted. GL BCAP
Posted using a mobile device.
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BCap888
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#10
Posted: 4/7/2012 10:55:14 PM
Annnnnnd nope. Game to watch tomorrow: If Rangers lose by 1 they'll be our first play in their next game.

P.S. The New York Mets are in first place. Wanna say that as much as I can, while I can.
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Luckydan
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#11
Posted: 4/7/2012 11:15:05 PM
If the Rangers lose by one run on Sunday, what will you do on Monday with Seattle being a likely play on your underdog system?

Good Luck.
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BCap888
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#12
Posted: 4/8/2012 1:45:01 AM
That's a good question Dan... I would play on Texas because I have more faith in them and this system. But that's only if they do happen to lose by one, otherwise we'll likely have a play on Seattle, you're right.
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BCap888
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#13
Posted: 4/8/2012 5:04:06 PM
Looking like Giants should have been a play...
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BCap888
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#14
Posted: 4/8/2012 7:59:50 PM
If the Toronto vs Boston game on Monday is a 1 run game we'll have our first play on the loser of that game. And again, if Texas loses by 1 tonight we'll have them also.
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#15
Posted: 4/8/2012 8:36:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BCap888:

Looking like Giants should have been a play...


Now they lost 3 in a row by 1 run. I like SF against a Col team that struggled with Hou plus SF put up 4, 4, 6 last 3 plus they are a dog.
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BCap888
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#16
Posted: 4/8/2012 9:07:17 PM
Not a bad shot. I should have checked how the NL did after 3 ST 1 run losses.
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BCap888
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#17
Posted: 4/8/2012 9:09:17 PM
Betting AGAINST all teams that have lost 3 ST by 1 run would have won you +22.85 units from 2004 to 2009.
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BCap888
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#18
Posted: 4/8/2012 9:09:57 PM
Not 2009, it was 2011 my bad.
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BCap888
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#19
Posted: 4/10/2012 8:11:18 PM
The Mariners are actually our first play in this system also.
Sorry it took me so long to realize it lol.
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Luckydan
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#20
Posted: 4/10/2012 8:49:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BCap888:

The Mariners are actually our first play in this system also.
Sorry it took me so long to realize it lol.


Mariners are a play in the dog system. Game 2. Is that what your post is referring to?

Thanks.

Good Luck.
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BCap888
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#21
Posted: 4/10/2012 8:52:20 PM
Yeah, they're also one in this system.
Dan, have you checked out my Query Results thread? I think there's some stuff in there you'd like.
BOL
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BCap888
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#22
Posted: 4/10/2012 8:55:17 PM
Wow, I don't know why I just posted that. I looked at a score somewhere that told me something applied here, but nothing does. Ignore me lol.
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BCap888
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#23
Posted: 4/12/2012 6:03:42 PM
Our first chase will be on the Angels.

4/13
Angels +130
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BCap888
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#24
Posted: 4/13/2012 8:21:43 PM
We'll get one here.

4/14
Angels +110. Still one unit I'm disregarding my first post on increasing bet sizes.

GL
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BCap888
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#25
Posted: 4/14/2012 6:46:50 PM
4/14
Angels +110 (W)

2012:
1-1
+$10.00
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