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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NBA Parlay Partnership
Air1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Air1
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#1
Posted: 1/19/2012 3:28:10 PM
The system is rather simple and easy to understand. Basically you form a 2 team parlay everyday from match up with the closest spread (i.e. PK or -1) and the widest spread ( -10, -11 etc) on the board and bet them to cover all possible outcome and label each pair as outline on page 1 to 4 categories. Because you bet to cover all outcome there will be 3 losers and 1 winner each day, now what you have to do is increase the stake on those 3 losers to chase your lose but if any given pair lose 12 straight

Found this system on another website - Thank you Solaman. System had only 1 loss last season and a total of +103 units.

THE PARLAY SET-UP

GAME ONE
VISTING TEAM (1)
HOME TEAM (2)

GAME TWO
VISTING TEAM (3)
HOME TEAM (4)

PARLAY COMBINATIONS (1 & 3) (1 & 4) (2 & 3) (2 & 4) (spread)
(1/3) = visting team gm 1 / visiting team gm 2
(1/4) = visting team gm 1 / home team gm 2
(2/3) = home team gm 1 / visiting team gm 2
(2/4) = home team gm 1 / home team gm 2

BETTING PROGRESSION FORMULA BASED ON -110 WITH A 2.6 PAYOUT TO WIN ONE UNIT

1. .40 X 2.6 ...........total risk .40 to win 1 unit
2. .54 X 2.6 ...........total risk .94 to win 1 unit
3. .75 X 2.6............total risk 1.69 to win 1 unit
4. 1.04 X 2.6..........total risk 2.73 to win 1 unit
5. 1.44 X 2.6..........total risk 4.17 to win 1 unit
6. 1.99 X 2.6..........total risk 6.16 to win 1 unit
7. 2.76 X 2.6..........total risk 8.92 to win 1 unit
8. 3.82 X 2.6..........total risk 12.74 to win 1 unit
9. 5.29 X 2.6..........total risk 18.03 to win 1 unit
10. 7.32 X 2.6........total risk 25.35 to win 1 unit
11. 10.14 X 2.6......total risk 35.49 to win 1 unit
12. 14.04 X 2.6......total risk 49.53 to win 1 unit

Example: unit size ($10)... 1st play ... .40 X $10 = $4.00 wager to win $10
...................unit size ($25)... 1st play.... .40 X $25 = $10.00 wager to win $25
...................unit size ($100)..1st play..... .40 x $100 = $40.00 wager to win $100

Bankroll recommendation: 150 to 200 units The last 12 days of the season each combination will be eliminated with a win.

TOTAL NUMBERS PARLAYS................................ 154
TOTAL NUMBER OF PARLAY COMBINATIONS.......... 608
TOTAL PARLAY COMBINATION SERIES LOST............1
TOTAL UNITS WON..................................... ......103
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#2
Posted: 1/19/2012 3:34:11 PM
COMMENTS: A SERIES LOSS IS WHEN A PARLAY COMBINATION FAILS TO COVER IN 12 CONSECUTIVE PLAYS..

REVIEW.... We are using the games with the lowest and highest spread for the day with the lowest spread being game 1.

The wagers are on all 4 combinations with only one win for each parlay but again our goal is to cover each combination at least once in 12 plays. You will have 3 pending series at all times until the last 12 days of the season. Again, several books are needed to make this work.

COVERING ONLY 11% (1 OF 9 PARLAYS) WILL GUARANTEE YOU A UNIT WON FOR EVERY PARLAY REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME.
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#3
Posted: 1/19/2012 3:41:05 PM
PARLAY PARTNERSHIP SUMMARY UPDATE THRU 3/2 of 2010-2011 season

122 parlays played with 1 loss by the 1/4 combination

TOTAL UNITS WON... 72
PENDING...................3

COMBINATION WINS

1/3........37
1/4........27
2/3........29
2/4........29

SOLAMAN said in one of his lasts posts that::: Because of the above results I plan to make a few adjustments. I plan to increase the number of parlays from one to four and use 1/4 units instead of full units. This will give me 4 more steps in the progression. This will give 16 steps in the progression instead of 12. No series has gone 16 steps in the progression after 2 seasons of data. I have also included what I call....partnership rescue.. if a series goes this far.
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#4
Posted: 1/19/2012 3:49:51 PM
I will attempt to follow this system for as long as I can using the 12 step progression only. I will backtest for this season soon and post results.

Also early on in the season last yr. the combination of the 1/3 and 2/3 were hitting well. So Solaman came up with another alternative betting progression:
1. .40 X 2.6 ...........total risk .40 to win 1 unit
2. .93 X 2.6 ...........total risk 1.33 to win 2 units
3. 1.7 X 2.6............total risk 3.03 to win 3 units
4. 2.70 X 2.6..........total risk 5.73 to win 4 units
5. 4.20 X 2.6..........total risk 9.93 to win 5 units
6. 6.20 X 2.6..........total risk 16.13 to win 6 units
7. 9.0 X 2.6..........total risk 25.13 to win 7 units
8. 12.8 X 2.6..........total risk 37.93 to win 8 units
9. 18.1 X 2.6..........total risk 56.03 to win 9 units

Update thru 12/28 (total parlays ...63)
parlay play.................combination (2/3)........combination (1/3)
1st play............................2....... ...........................2
2nd play............................3....... ...........................5
3rd play............................3....... ............................0
4th play............................5....... ............................2
5th play............................1....... ............................4
6th play............................1....... ............................0
7th play............................1....... ............................0
8th play............................1....... ............................1
9th play............................0....... .............................1
loss..................................0. ...................................0

the alternate plan as mentioned: The 2/3 combination is plus 63 units and the 1/3 combination is plus 62 units for a total of 125 units with both combinations with 1 pending.
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#5
Posted: 1/19/2012 5:12:19 PM
For a tie breaker, check line movement before games. if it's close to same line from opening through almost closing use highest Total.
COMBO WINS & Pending Play # through 1/18
1/3....6  play#2
1/4....8  play#7
2/3....5  play#5
2/4....6  play#1

Date   Winner play # (for that combo)
dec 25   1/4  play#1
dec 26   2/3  play#2
dec 27   1/3  play#3
dec 28   1/4  play#3
dec 29   2/4  play#5
dec 30   1/3  play#3
dec 31   2/3  play#5* used Atl/Hou as line moved from +1 to -1
jan 01   2/4  play#3
jan 02   2/3  play#2
jan 03   2/3  play#1
jan 04   1/4  play#7
jan 05   1/4  play#1
jan 06   1/3  play#7 */* used GS/LAL cuz line opened/stayed highest. Also tie break for chi/orl was line movement from -1 to +1
jan 07   1/4  play#2
jan 08   1/4  play#1
jan 09   2/4  play#8
jan 10   2/4  play#1 * used SA/Mil game over okc/mem. opened & closed @ a lower line.
jan 11   1/4  play#3 * used chi was opened -14 closed same as nj/den though,
jan 12   1/4  play#1
jan 13   2/4  play#3 * used SA/por highest total + line opened lower than chi bos(closed last min line movement to lower though)
jan 14   2/3  play#11!!!!
jan 15   1/3  play#9
jan 16   1/3  play#1 * couldnt decide between ny/orl & cle/char games for lowest ats - both visitors won.
jan 17   1/3  play#1
jan 18   2/4  play#5
jan 19  Pending
1/3 Dal/NO
1/4 Dal/Hou
2/3 Uta/NO
2/4 Uta/Hou
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ERBATIZ send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
ERBATIZ
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#6
Posted: 1/19/2012 7:03:17 PM
bol
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#7
Posted: 1/19/2012 7:59:33 PM

If I'm reading this right, if you lose a series which is 12 consective loses, you will lose over 166 units on that series.  So if you would have lost two series last year, you would have lost 63 units, 166-103.
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silentthread
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#8
Posted: 1/19/2012 8:01:59 PM

OMG, sounds fun and insane. I will be watching this thread, and possibly laying down the action as welll.
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#9
Posted: 1/19/2012 9:05:57 PM
GL Air1, lets make it work. 
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Air1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#10
Posted: 1/20/2012 3:27:52 PM
yesterday 1/3 combo won.
today: IND (1), GS (2), SAC (3), SA (4).
1/3....6  play#1
1/4....8  play#8
2/3....5  play#6
2/4....6  play#2

@akell - in the first post explains the betting progression formula & how much you will be risking altogether during each bet. For the 12th bet you are betting 14.04 units X 2.6 (total risk 49.53) to win 1 unit.
We would have about 150+ plays all year. This year is a shortened season so I don't think there will be that many. Anyway my point is we are allotted 3 losses all season.
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#11
Posted: 1/21/2012 3:52:17 PM
yesterday 1/3 combo won.
today: DEN (1), NY (2), CHAR (3), CHI (4).
1/3....6  play#1
1/4....8  play#9
2/3....5  play#7
2/4....6  play#3
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#12
Posted: 1/23/2012 5:39:42 PM
yesterday the 1/4 combo finally hit on the 9th bet!! Bos/Was was the lowest spread and the game started at 12. I put my bet in at 11. At which time Tor/Lac had the highest line, not mia/mil
Today we have a problem. NJ/Chi + Okc/Det are at the same line ats and have the same total. not sure what to do in this situation now? bet will be placed an hour before game time so at ~7 so we'll see how it moves then.
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#13
Posted: 1/23/2012 7:33:06 PM
*correction 1/4 combo was the 10th bet

today: ATL (1), MIL (2), NJ (3), CHI (4) chi/nj is play because of high total over okc/det.
1/3....  play#3
1/4....  play#1
2/3....  play#9
2/4....  play#5
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#14
Posted: 1/24/2012 9:31:48 PM
yesterday 1/4 combo won.
today: Orl (1), Ind (2), Cle (3), Mia (4).
1/3....6  play#4
1/4....8  play#1
2/3....5  play#10
2/4....6  play#6

looks like it's going to be a 1/3 combo win.
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#15
Posted: 1/25/2012 9:01:54 AM
Thanks for sharing this.
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#16
Posted: 1/26/2012 6:21:06 AM
yesterday 2/3 combo won on the 11th bet! I had the NY/Cle & Por/GS games at  -4 when bet was placed. NY/Cle game was played because of higher over/under.

It's early on in the season and we have already gone deep in the betting progression several times. Let's hope we never get past 12 [btw I remember reading that this system (if you got  the balls), has never gone up to the 16th step.]
Also this is the second time the 2/3 combo has gone over the 9 step aggressive betting progression. Last 2/3 was money early on,.... guess not anymore.
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#17
Posted: 1/27/2012 4:26:49 PM
yesterday 2/3 combo won again. UNITS WON to Date: +31 Units
today: SA (1), MIN (2), CHAR (3), PHI (4).
Winners Pending
1/3.....8   play#6
1/4....10  play#3
2/3.....7   play#1
2/4.....6   play#8

Not Sure if I clarified this earlier, but I will not subtract any units until there is a lose.
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#18
Posted: 1/28/2012 7:11:10 AM
Yesterday 2/4 combo won bringing the total Units won to date to +32 Units

Lines are not up yet for covers.
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#19
Posted: 1/30/2012 6:53:04 PM
wash/phi won 2 nights ago. last night it was cle and lal
will update later or tomorrow. 
tonight portland/utah is MY pick as the line opened up 1 point lower than the okc/lac game. so (1) port (2) utah (3) new orl (4) mia.
Okc/lac game has a higher total & both games sit at -2 right now, but also has RLM which I don't like. 
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#20
Posted: 2/1/2012 8:04:16 AM
yesterday 2/4 combo won. UNITS WON to Date: +36 Units
Winners Pending
1/3.....9   play#3
1/4....11  play#4
2/3.....7   play#6
2/4.....9   play#1
Todays play are pending.
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#21
Posted: 2/2/2012 5:26:11 PM
All updates will be found in the following thread in the nba betting section.
Here is the last update in this section of the forums.
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#22
Posted: 2/2/2012 5:27:16 PM
yesterday 1/4 combo won. UNITS WON to Date: +37 Units
Winners Pending
1/3.....9   bet#4
1/4....11  bet#1
2/3.....7   bet#7
2/4.....9   bet#2
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#23
Posted: 2/4/2012 7:11:16 PM
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#24
Posted: 10/30/2012 3:37:47 PM
anybody tried this system?
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#25
Posted: 10/31/2012 10:22:09 PM
system was in the red last season. i really wouldnt recommend it unless you are an action junkie with a huge BR
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