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Author: [Tennis] Topic: 2012 ATP Munich; Belgrade; Estoril (c); WTA Budapest; Estoril (c)
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#26
Posted: 5/3/2012 10:44:29 PM

3u
Wawa + Ramos + Kohls +100, -110r, -115b
2u
Tomic +140
1u
Tomic +2.5 -110
Cilic 2-0 +180
Gasquet 2-0 -285
Gasquet -5.5 -125
Bags 2-0 +370
Bags +185
Bags +1.5 Sets -130
Bags +3.5 -110
Mueller 2-0 +650
Mueller +310
Mueller +1.5 Sets +120
Mueller +4.5 -135
Vinci 2-0 +290
Vinci ML +140
Vinci +1.5 Sets -180
Vinci +3.5 -135
Errani 2-0 -250
Suarez-Navarro 2-0 +110

Quick thoughts:
- Direct tail of Negative who seems to have the fav parlay figured out...But all in all I like the play but Kohls scares me... 
- I have no problem losing money on Tomic, if he doesnt beat Lopez... From what I have seen he is looking very comfertable here... tons of different shots in the arsenal... 
- Still low on Youzney, still hoping Cilic gets to the Final
- I dont understand what Munoz is doing to get himself to this point... I assume Gasquet will take care of him efficiently but clay is the great equalizer... I am taking what I see as a textbook blowout
- I will never stop fading Haas until he retires..
- Mueller has cashed twice for me already making this play easy for me
- Vinci I thought would be the favorite here...  Can Kanepi hit through her??  Books think yes... I think no... 


Futures ADDED:
5u
Delpo to Win Estoril -140
3u
Errani to Win Budapest -205
Suarez-Navarro to Win Estoril (WTA) +210


- I saw enough... Blowing out Machado shows me that he is the overwhelming class of this field... the proce doesnt reflect the likelihood of his winning
- Errani is very similar... Her topspin ball is popping on this court... She will get by Tastishvilli for sure... My only concern in Erakovic because she could serve her way into tiebreakers where she would have the advantage
- High on Navarro on all surfaces but seems to be doing well in this tourney on the clay...



Pinnacles new lines are friggin with my head... Always gonna be tempted to buy more juice and get an extra .5 game on these spreads... Hopefully I will get used to it and it will all work out... 


GL ALL, Tons of plays but its just alot of the same names over and over... 

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#27
Posted: 5/4/2012 8:37:18 AM
3u
Paire +105, +120b, +120r
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#28
Posted: 5/4/2012 8:43:54 AM
4u
Delpo -6 -120
Delpo under 18, 18.5 +105, -140
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#29
Posted: 5/4/2012 8:58:10 AM
Nice call on Pablo. Rosol lost his way on serve today. He has more 2nd serves than 1st. That won't work against Pablo. Now I can see why Rosol has been hanging around 100 in his career. If his serve isn't buzzing, he's very average on the ground.

I decided to go small on Rosol hoping he could continue to serve well, but the wheels fell off today.

BOL today ADC.
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#30
Posted: 5/4/2012 9:01:47 AM
I still think Pablo's serve is weak as darn. Seems like all his games go to deuce, but he continually fights off service games.

I don't know how you can say that pablo's more of an all court player, he has a horrendous record on any other surface than clay.
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#31
Posted: 5/4/2012 9:24:40 AM
I think the rain last night in Belgrade slowed down the courts. Rosol's serve has no bite like it had yesterday.

Jarkko was making Veic look dumb on the fast court yesterday, but Veic was able to turn things around and take the 2ns set today on the slower surface. it's something to keep in mind for today.
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#32
Posted: 5/4/2012 1:34:26 PM
7-16 -1.6u Today.. thank you delpo for saving me with your domination...  pretty much knew right away how bad my plays were gonna go...

no action likely for tomorrow because i have 5 futures for all 5 tourneys...

But will look into Madrid quailies

GL ALL

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#33
Posted: 5/4/2012 1:37:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scitommy:

I still think Pablo's serve is weak as darn. Seems like all his games go to deuce, but he continually fights off service games.

I don't know how you can say that pablo's more of an all court player, he has a horrendous record on any other surface than clay.

the statement is based on his playing style... he doesnt play a traditional clay court game despite playing most of is matches on it... a few years ago he ventured into playing more matches on hardcourts.. didnt work out... If he was smart he would play the us open series this year... he is playing the best tennis of his life and would set him up for more sucess in 2013... but those 4 tourneis I mentioned will be too tempting I am sure...

gl.. i still need to more wins from him to make money
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#34
Posted: 5/4/2012 1:39:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scitommy:

I think the rain last night in Belgrade slowed down the courts. Rosol's serve has no bite like it had yesterday.

Jarkko was making Veic look dumb on the fast court yesterday, but Veic was able to turn things around and take the 2ns set today on the slower surface. it's something to keep in mind for today.

i was told this by a friend in the morning and already had my Mueller bets mentally as losses.. he had no chance today... will adjust
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#35
Posted: 5/4/2012 2:04:16 PM
this has no chance but line just went too high, hit it for +580 on betfair... might live bet it but just too high for a guy who has been playing well


1u
Sousa Over Nalby +535
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#36
Posted: 5/4/2012 3:32:05 PM
Not 1 dog hit today I don't think.
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#37
Posted: 5/4/2012 11:52:03 PM
Only play tomorrow
5u
Errani 2-0 -135

Futures Pending:
5u
Delpo to Win Estoril -140
3u
Errani to Win Budapest -205
Suarez-Navarro to Win Estoril (WTA) +210
2u
Andujar to win Srbija +400
1u
Cilic to win Munich +1300
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#38
Posted: 5/5/2012 2:14:24 PM
added
3u
Emmerich/Siljestrom +155, +130b, +120r
2u
Muguruza/Li Na Over 19.5 -115

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#39
Posted: 5/5/2012 4:34:32 PM
Suarez-Navarro did everything she needed to do to win except to win. Serving for the match at 6-3 5-3, she fell on her face. Then had about 5 game points she couldn't close at 5-5. Then Up 5-2 and 6-4 (2 match points in the 2nd set tiebreak, blew that. Up 3-1 and 4-2 in the 3rd set, blew all that. Talk about a friggin nightmare.
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#40
Posted: 5/5/2012 4:53:19 PM
I just looked it up. Suarez-Navarro is now 0-3 in WTA finals and 0-5 in her last 5 if you include 2 ITF finals before that.
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#41
Posted: 5/5/2012 9:59:02 PM
OUCH..,. Had no clue it was that bad... Kanepi was handed that tourney by two poor performances by Vinci and Navarro.... what can you do... sometimes the right play doesnt hit... Blanco just needs to hold once more for the win on my over and she too doesnt get it done... Wta can be a heartbreaker sometimes...

3-3 +4.75u TODAY
10-20 +2.15u Last two days

40-48 +16.5u WEEK

Pending and Added:

5u
Delpo to Win Estoril -140
1u
Cilic to win Munich +1300
Paire/Seppi Over 21 -135
Davydenko -150
Giraldo + Garrigues + Schiavone +190
Bogo Jr +340
Hercog -150
Cermak/Polasek -110
Knowle/Merrero +120
Vinci +150
Kuzy +6.5 +105



Although I got some guarenteed profit in Cilic I am riding it out thinking he beat Kohls... 

Small plays in Madrid... Capping these matches seems pointless right now...  THe court is VERY VERY Blue... Much more blue than I thought... Just taking plays I think would hit if the court was playing slow... Some people are gonna be very put off by the Blue... I think Roger is fade material this tourney and topspinners will rule... Looking for TOmic to upset Ferrer in Round 2 and Nadal to win... 

GL ALL

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#42
Posted: 5/5/2012 10:10:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AgainstDaConsen:

OUCH..,. Had no clue it was that bad... Kanepi was handed that tourney by two poor performances by Vinci and Navarro.... what can you do... sometimes the right play doesnt hit... Blanco just needs to hold once more for the win on my over and she too doesnt get it done... Wta can be a heartbreaker sometimes...

3-3 +4.75u TODAY
10-20 +2.15u Last two days

40-48 +16.5u WEEK

Pending and Added:

5u
Delpo to Win Estoril -140
1u
Cilic to win Munich +1300
Paire/Seppi Over 21 -135
Davydenko -150
Giraldo + Garrigues + Schiavone +190
Bogo Jr +340
Hercog -150
Cermak/Polasek -110
Knowle/Merrero +120
Vinci +150
Kuzy +6.5 +105



Although I got some guarenteed profit in Cilic I am riding it out thinking he beat Kohls... 

Small plays in Madrid... Capping these matches seems pointless right now...  THe court is VERY VERY Blue... Much more blue than I thought... Just taking plays I think would hit if the court was playing slow... Some people are gonna be very put off by the Blue... I think Roger is fade material this tourney and topspinners will rule... Looking for TOmic to upset Ferrer in Round 2 and Nadal to win... 

GL ALL



BOL the rest of this week and next ADC. Tomic upsetting Ferrer on a slow clay court in Spain is asking alot IMO.
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#43
Posted: 5/6/2012 10:57:29 AM
2u
Kiri -125
Begu +6.5 +110
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#44
Posted: 5/6/2012 3:36:27 PM
up and down day... was able to live bet Kohls when Cilic had Set point in the first set tiebreak... Was all ready to post it then Kohls comes back and wins the set, Cilic had a terrible game plan.. he was trying to breakdown Kohls backhand well into the 2nd Set... Not smart Kohls backhand was untouchable this week.. If I know I am gonna hedge I should just post something on the thread, thats what the futures are for.. Not to hang on to when there is guaranteed profit..... Delpo wins handily... I thought Schiavone was a lock to win after gets that epic 2nd set breaker but she falls to youth...

Overall I think Madrid is infact plaing slow... Based on the winners and the scorelines... 

GL ALL, Solid week made up for last week... 


6-7 +2.7u Today
46-55 +19.2u WEEK
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#45
Posted: 5/7/2012 12:46:45 PM
You gotta love Suarez-Navarro. Fights back to win today against Jankovic. This girl and all girl for that matter are unbettable.
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#46
Posted: 5/18/2012 8:46:59 AM
You taking a break? 
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