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Author: [Tennis] Topic: 2012 ATP Barcelona (c); Bucharest (c); WTA Fez (c); Stuttgart (c)
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#26
Posted: 4/26/2012 5:49:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scitommy:

Pretty fast clay in Stuttgart. The big hitters are making noise.

definitely... I think I am gonna focus on this tourney for the rest of the way this week...  In a hole and I hate losing weeks...

Record taking a hit percentage wise but I did escape with profit today thanks to a drubbing by Kerber... 


(26-65 -21.65u) Week

More Moronical plays coming tomorrow... with write-ups likely...  no more dog strategy
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#27
Posted: 4/26/2012 10:22:03 PM
5u
Simon to Win Bucharest -170
3u
Murray 2-0 -125
2u
Fognini/Seppi Over 22 -115
Vika/Barthel Over 19.5
Stosur to Win Stuttgart +750
1u
Murray to Win Barca +1000
Barthel +330
Balazs +3.5 +110
Balazs +205
Hanley/Kerr +235
Goerges/Groenfeld +170
Pliskova Sisters +130
Bertens 2-0 +700
Johansson 2-0 +380
Ward Over Soeda +165b

- I hated backing a future on the juice, but there is absolutely NO CLASS left in the field... Look at who left and its a mix of bums who can only succeed on clay and no name that have taken advantage of no one being prapred to face them... Simon is gonna get to the final and can escape with this tourney with his B game... But the play is scary, given Simon can choke or retire at any moment...
- I like Murray in any tiebreak scenarios... Raonic is a great server but he is no Isner when it comes to tiebreaks
- Fognini is in crunch time now... I will say this, from what I have seen he is playing well... he is healthy and playing aggressive, but most of Fognini's matches go over... Seppi getting alot of love from the books and open as a moderate fav... This is due to a career body of work and not his play right now... Take from that what you want... The "value" if any is on Fognini... But that sentence seems like an oxymoron
- Vika and Barthel played a tight one last time out.. this surface is clearly no tlooking like Vika's favorite and she appeared quite rusty against petko... As barthel prgresses to an elite player she will take some scalps along the way... think she has got a good shot here.. posted the ML but if you plan on playing it wait till the last second, late action will all be on Vika
- I think this surface comliments Stosur as much as any surface could, clay will lower consistent bounces.. Like a hardcourt but the ball gets dirty and heavy... With that said though she has to get through Sharapova and likely Kvitova to get to the final... but thats why its 15/2
- I thought about who I would take in a likely Murray/Ferrer matchup.. Saw Murray, but I will be excited to watch that match...  Should be the best of the tourney
- Balls-behind is catchin people by surprise but isnt comminting too many errors in the process of winning.. I admittedlly have only seen him play once or twince and even then his play didnt impress me at all.. Havent seen him play at all this tourney, but from what he is doing and the winners he has gotten me this week I figure its not a play I will be too upset about
- Doubles has been miserable this week.. just taking some dogs here, hoping for the best
- Looto tickets in a wide open tourney in Fez
- From what I saw late last night, Soeda doesnt give a garbage right now and was reasy the throw the 2nd set against Wang until injury pushed him through... fyi for challenger players, this court is an exact replica of the US Open surface..

gl all

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#28
Posted: 4/27/2012 9:20:36 AM
Added:
3u
Verdasco/Nishikori Over 22 -105
2u
Verdasco/Nishikori Over 22 + Kvitova ML +225
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#29
Posted: 4/27/2012 1:42:41 PM
any thoughts on sides with kvitova and kerber?
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#30
Posted: 4/27/2012 2:25:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JUSTaGAME28:

any thoughts on sides with kvitova and kerber?

I am on Kvitova already since parlay reduced, but I adding to it... I think it is a big deal that Kerber has never played her before... If Kerber turns it into a slugfest, Kvitova will prevail...  I dont know if Kerber has the finesse game needed to pull this one off... Could be a great match, but i see Kvitova in two with the first set being tight.


Parlay reduces with Nishkori retirement... Added to Kvitova ML...

ALL PENDING AND ADDED:
5u
Simon to Win Bucharest -170
4u
Kvitova Over Kerber -135
2u
Stosur to Win Stuttgart +750
1u
Goerges/Groenfeld +170 (sat)

5-7 +4.40u TODAY

thank you Bertens for cashing my lotto ticket... Balasz firing on a all cylinders... good young player... 

GL ALL

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#31
Posted: 4/27/2012 5:00:29 PM
4u
Kvitova 2-0 +165
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#32
Posted: 4/27/2012 5:06:56 PM
Stosur is a friggin nightmare. No idea how she won the US open with her garbage nerves.
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#33
Posted: 4/27/2012 6:26:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scitommy:

Stosur is a friggin nightmare. No idea how she won the US open with her garbage nerves.

yeah that was rough but it is well known how mentally weak she is when closing out  match.. it wont be the last time she collapses in a match she was fairly dominant in... Absurb... Didnt give Pova a sniff for over 90 minutes and then just dumps a service game with 3 straight errors and just teed up second serves... 

but she didnt break my day... Got a great win in Kvitova and Bertens really kept me afloat... 

7-8 +13u TODAY
(33-73 -8.65u) Week

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#34
Posted: 4/27/2012 10:52:05 PM
ALL PENDING AND ADDED:

5u
Simon to Win Bucharest -170
Pios-Tio -115
2u
Ferrer 2-0 +110
Ferrer -3.5 +100
Vika 2-0 -105
Vika -3.5 -140
Ferrer + Vika +100
Fognini/Balazs Over 21 -110
Grannollers/Lopez -160
1u
Pios-Tio 2-0 +190
Pios-Tio -1.5 Games +100
Verdasco ML +1580
Goerges/Groenfeld +170

Quick thoughts
- If Pios Tio goes junkball on Bertens she should frustrate her and win
- Raonic in a clay final would make me do a double take.. is it possible YES, but I will bet against it.
- Vika owns Radwanska... I rarely use h2h in my thoughts or capping, but there is no doubt that Vika has her number


**ALl the 2-0 bets are just estimates based on some betfair lines...  I will adjust if anything is massively off.. those are the only plays not it yet..

GL ALL


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#35
Posted: 4/28/2012 5:03:25 AM
Starts in 30min,
will be on live betting too.

ATP, Napoli, Challenger
Kuznetsov - Mannarino
Mannarino win@2.20 (+120)

Enjoy!!!

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=71&sub=101331338&page=1
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#36
Posted: 4/28/2012 3:15:33 PM
^^ get lost



6-6 -1.05u today as I was dead wrong about bertens...

I am have for Sunday so I am posting now... No surprises I am doubes up on Simon.. .Line is -400 now so that is what I am posting based on... However I am certain i will get  a better line on Betfair... Doubles play has no line yet, will post it if possible

10u*
Simon -285
3u
Grannollers/Lopez
2u
Ito Over Soeda 
Ferrer ML +975

* Consolidation of future and ML play at -400

- Like I said Simon could beat Fognini with his B game... This touranament has had very little competition so I am not surprised to see him in the final... But I would be shocked to see him win it
- Lopez is showing he is the #1 clay court player in the world
- Surprised to see Soeda in the final... Think there is value in what is a toss up match.
- Ferrer said himself that winning this title would be the highlight of his career... Supporting him in both mind and money

** No ines on 2 of 4 plays... will post if possible

No plays/leans on stuttgart finals


GL ALL

*peace*


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#37
Posted: 4/28/2012 4:52:55 PM
BOL on Sunday ADC.

I like your picks except for Ito. I don't think it's as easy as saying it's a toss up and don't understand what your angle in that match. Soeda is 4-0 (8-0 sets) on HC's against Ito. Ward was hot as can be and Soeda destroyed him. Ito was fortunate Chiudinelli had to play 2 matches in 1 day.

Anything can happen, but I certainly wouldn't feel good backing Ito.
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#38
Posted: 4/28/2012 10:32:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scitommy:

BOL on Sunday ADC.

I like your picks except for Ito. I don't think it's as easy as saying it's a toss up and don't understand what your angle in that match. Soeda is 4-0 (8-0 sets) on HC's against Ito. Ward was hot as can be and Soeda destroyed him. Ito was fortunate Chiudinelli had to play 2 matches in 1 day.

Anything can happen, but I certainly wouldn't feel good backing Ito.

you know me I dont look at h2h much when I cap... But that stat does support Soeda being a big fav... Which he is!  I think there is value at +180. My insomnia has allowed me to watch both of these guys play this tourney, and I feel Ito is in better form and has more competitive matches coming into the final...  

doubles line is -110, -125, -120r
Ito line is +180, +175b

not locked in on SImon play, realizing now how much I have to risk on Simon and how that will be my biggest play of th year so far... Do I want my biggest play to be on Simon?  Its very scary but I am still likely gonna bite this bullet and hope for the best, still sitting at -400 hopin that it moves sometime in the next 10 hours...  ... GL ALL

Hope everyone wins tomorrow... 


(39-79 -9.7u) Week
(660-772 +129.45u) Overall 2012
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#39
Posted: 4/29/2012 1:18:25 PM
4u
vika +250 live
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#40
Posted: 4/29/2012 1:22:46 PM
8live bet is refund if retirement
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#41
Posted: 4/29/2012 1:27:44 PM
these girl double fault so much
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#42
Posted: 4/29/2012 2:14:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by binka34:

these girl double fault so much

nervy stuff at the end but Maria pulled through... as she should have... 

losing day and losing week.. I despise losing weeks but it is very clear that the week was lost when I bet dogs on the first 3 days.. 

Also I think I just had the biggest moose of the year in the doubles match today... Granollers lopez had 3 match point on serve in the 2nd set tiebreak... They won over 60% of all poitns in the match and almost 80% of the points on there serve an they blew all three... then they lose the championsbreaker despite being up a break in that as well... Just very hard to imagine in high level mens doubles... 

1-4 today -1.55u today

(40-83 -11.25u) Week
(661-776 +127.90u) Overall 2012

I hate losing weeks but I think I got alot of good capping in this week and I am ready for the French... 






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#43
Posted: 4/29/2012 11:07:35 PM
links to year of posts:
2012 pre aussie open:
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=38&sub=101224661
2012 aussie open
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=38&sub=101241260
2012 Zagreb(i), Viña del Mar(c), Montpellier(i), Fed Cup
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=38&sub=101256207
2012 WTA Pattaya (h); GDF Paris (i); Challeger Dallas (i); Caloundra (h); Quimpe...
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=38&sub=101263467
2012 ATP Rotterdam (i); San Jose (i); São Paulo (c); WTA Doha (h); Bogota (c);
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=38&sub=101269167
2012 ATP Memphis (i); Marseille (i); Buenos Aires (c); WTA Dubai (h); Memphis (i...
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=38&sub=101275513
2012 ATP Dubai (h); Delray Beach (h); Acapulco (c); WTA K.L. (i); Acapulco (c)
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=38&sub=101281621
2012 WTA Charleston (gc); Davis Cup QF's
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=38&sub=101311988
2012 ATP Casablanca (c); Houston (gc); WTA Barca (c); Copenhagen (i)
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=38&sub=101318348
2012 ATP Monte Carlo (c); Fed Cup Semis
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=38&sub=101323696

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