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Author: [Pro Golf] Topic: Lord Bryon Nelson HP Championship Blue's picks
Bluefin send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Bluefin
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#1
Posted: 5/15/2012 3:52:25 PM
For all you faders out there

 Full tournament

           Baird-110/Couch 5 units
           Oosthuzien-130/Els 5 units

1st Round H2H

           Henry-110/Slocum 3 units
           Bradley -115/Duffner 3 units
           Palmer-115/happy 3 units



Fade away fellas thought I give you all plenty of time before the lines move against the big blue fade wave that sweeps across the golf betting world... delusions of grandeur or what...

seriously I've been just horrible with my picks of late so BEWARE!!





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#2
Posted: 5/15/2012 7:20:32 PM
it will turn for you buddy. what are you methods for making picks?

pretend I dont know anything about betting golf and you were trying to give me 4-5 pointers on what to look for.
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#3
Posted: 5/16/2012 8:16:08 AM
Depends on how much time I have of course but I run basic stats like all cappers.I have two sites I get most of my numbers from. I run comparisons from my past observations about course set ups,current form, etc but most of my decisions are based on the offerings looking for some value as well as edge.

the books seem to be getting better with the lines as more statistics become available it's harder to find a weak offering or a weak number anymore....they make you pay the juice one way or the other
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#4
Posted: 5/16/2012 12:18:30 PM
this week I am looking at course form for the last 4 years and current form, a players last 4 or 5 tournaments. I also like to compare how players did on similar courses this year or the last.

and for specific stats for this tournament I am looking at driving accuracy and par 4 performance and since this course doesn't usually give up a ton of birdies I include bogey avoidance.


I am also looking at players that play well or struggle in the wind, particularly for the 3 balls on Friday. If we find a player that struggles in wind  grouped with a player that plays well in the wind that would be a large play for us.

What are the top 3-4 stats that you look at for this particular tourney.

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AJLightning
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#5
Posted: 5/16/2012 1:40:12 PM

Look at my plays and pick the opposite!! Sure fire winners!!

 

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#6
Posted: 5/16/2012 1:41:12 PM

 Good Luck this week BLUE!

It will turn around...always does!

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#7
Posted: 5/16/2012 1:44:04 PM
Ride the FADE AJ
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#8
Posted: 5/17/2012 11:26:29 PM

Way to go on round 1!! Keep it going brother!

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#9
Posted: 5/18/2012 6:13:34 AM
 Full tournament

           Baird-110/Couch 5 units down 2
           Oosthuzien-130/Els 5 units down 3
1st Round H2H

           Henry-110/Slocum 3 units
           Bradley -115/Duffner 3 units PUSH
           Palmer-115/happy 3 units

Round 2

            Overton -130/Estes 5 units

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#10
Posted: 5/18/2012 6:20:13 AM

               Palmer -135/Leishman 5 units
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#11
Posted: 5/18/2012 9:14:32 AM
A lot of love for Overton over Estes.....
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#12
Posted: 5/18/2012 9:26:41 AM
Yup AJ I was thinking the same
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#13
Posted: 5/18/2012 11:07:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bluefin:


               Palmer -135/Leishman 5 units

Your going against the cardnial rule of fading a guy after a low round???

Or did you have something else in mind?

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#14
Posted: 5/18/2012 6:10:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AJLightning:

Your going against the cardnial rule of fading a guy after a low round???

Or did you have something else in mind?

Leishman was only one back it was more a fade of his 2nd round stats
and the two eagles on the back I should have faded the whole matchup as it looks again to be only a 1 shot difference.

The faders made money thats what counts right....



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#15
Posted: 5/18/2012 6:14:29 PM
both FT's

Palmer

Overton Wow triples 18 to lose by 2 WTF
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#16
Posted: 5/19/2012 12:37:32 PM
3rd round

              Palmer -130/Campbell 5 units

             Ernie Els+105/B Davis 5 units

             JJ Henry-105/B Adams 5 units
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#17
Posted: 5/19/2012 6:04:19 PM
3rd round

              Palmer -130/Campbell 5 units

             Ernie Els+105/B Davis 5 units

             JJ Henry-105/B Adams 5 units
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#18
Posted: 5/19/2012 8:21:44 PM
Final Round

                  VJ +1334

                   Els-110/Howell 5 units

                  Henry-110/Pride 5 units

                  
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#19
Posted: 5/20/2012 5:58:26 AM

Got up early playing a little game today ..was thinking my thread is as dull as my picks so I thought I'd throw out a bone.Bogey this is for you..

One stat that I always like to look at and compare that I'm not sure a lot of people do  in H2H is just how the last 4 or 5 at that site final rounds compare.I also compare how they got to that number by comparing each cat DD<DA<GIR etc to current year and this years numbers.


Head to Head matchup

Els 4th rd fnl 2006/68 2005/66 2004/67 2002/69
CHWIII 4th rd fnl 20011/70 2009/73 err:2007MC/exc:69 2006/69 err:2005MC/69 2003/72

Here is a stat I like to look at a simple comparison of last round scores in previous years.What makes this one stand out is

a complete sweep by ELS in every year with a lower last round even the years when CWH missed the cut his best here was 69.

Is this a valid stat that should in anyway sway ones perspective probably not when you look at current form the amount of years between events and so forth but its a check in the box ...

I played Ernie after looking at his round and thinking he is just far enough off the pace so that the pressure on him should not be too much and with some decent final round memories he might have a low one tomorrow.CWH III is playing well and seems to be pretty solid here as well but he has that nagging bogey on 18 last two rounds and although he is bombing it off the tee his putter may be suspect with hot cold syndrome.

The last matchup I couldn't stay away from the match of the soggy bottom boys ...JJ agin Dickey sheet boys that n'll be a barn burner..worth a nickle just too see who can make it till 18 without losing his drawers.

BOL to all today
 
 
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#20
Posted: 5/20/2012 9:19:18 AM
Like the play on Ernie today my friend.

 
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#21
Posted: 5/20/2012 5:46:12 PM
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#22
Posted: 5/20/2012 5:55:32 PM
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#23
Posted: 5/21/2012 7:55:39 AM
Final Round

                  VJ +1334

                   Els-110/Howell 5 units Push

                  Henry-110/Pride 5 units

-16.75  for the tourney

                  
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#24
Posted: 5/21/2012 8:21:08 AM
PGA TOUR YTD -3.10 units
Champions Tour -6.50units
Futures -21.00 units

Total -30.60 units

Wow Did I f..k this season up Blew over 60 units in PGA 

might have to consider retirement

or a steroid regiment
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