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[Pro Golf] Topic: Lord Bryon Nelson HP Championship Blue's picks |
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Bluefin |
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#1 Posted: 5/15/2012 3:52:25 PM Full tournament
Baird-110/Couch 5 units Oosthuzien-130/Els 5 units
1st Round H2H
Henry-110/Slocum 3 units Bradley -115/Duffner 3 units Palmer-115/happy 3 units
Fade away fellas thought I give you all plenty of time before the lines move against the big blue fade wave that sweeps across the golf betting world...  delusions of grandeur or what...
seriously I've been just horrible with my picks of late so BEWARE!!
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MrBogey |
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#2 Posted: 5/15/2012 7:20:32 PM
pretend I dont know anything about betting golf and you were trying to give me 4-5 pointers on what to look for.
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Bluefin |
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#3 Posted: 5/16/2012 8:16:08 AM
the books seem to be getting better with the lines as more statistics become available it's harder to find a weak offering or a weak number anymore....they make you pay the juice one way or the other |
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MrBogey |
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#4 Posted: 5/16/2012 12:18:30 PM
and for specific stats for this tournament I am looking at driving accuracy and par 4 performance and since this course doesn't usually give up a ton of birdies I include bogey avoidance.
I am also looking at players that play well or struggle in the wind, particularly for the 3 balls on Friday. If we find a player that struggles in wind grouped with a player that plays well in the wind that would be a large play for us.
What are the top 3-4 stats that you look at for this particular tourney.
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AJLightning |
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#5 Posted: 5/16/2012 1:40:12 PM Look at my plays and pick the opposite!! Sure fire winners!!
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AJLightning |
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#6 Posted: 5/16/2012 1:41:12 PM  Good Luck this week BLUE!
It will turn around...always does! |
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Bluefin |
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#7 Posted: 5/16/2012 1:44:04 PM |
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AJLightning |
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#8 Posted: 5/17/2012 11:26:29 PM 
Way to go on round 1!! Keep it going brother! |
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Bluefin |
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#9 Posted: 5/18/2012 6:13:34 AM Full tournament
Baird-110/Couch 5 units down 2 Oosthuzien-130/Els 5 units down 3 1st Round H2H
Henry-110/Slocum 3 units  Bradley -115/Duffner 3 units PUSH Palmer-115/happy 3 units
Round 2
Overton -130/Estes 5 units
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Bluefin |
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#10 Posted: 5/18/2012 6:20:13 AM
Palmer -135/Leishman 5 units |
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AJLightning |
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#11 Posted: 5/18/2012 9:14:32 AM  |
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Bluefin |
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#12 Posted: 5/18/2012 9:26:41 AM |
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AJLightning |
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#13 Posted: 5/18/2012 11:07:57 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Bluefin:
Palmer -135/Leishman 5 units
Your going against the cardnial rule of fading a guy after a low round???
Or did you have something else in mind? |
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Bluefin |
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#14 Posted: 5/18/2012 6:10:03 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by AJLightning:
Your going against the cardnial rule of fading a guy after a low round???
Or did you have something else in mind? Leishman was only one back it was more a fade of his 2nd round stats and the two eagles on the back I should have faded the whole matchup as it looks again to be only a 1 shot difference.
The faders made money thats what counts right....
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Bluefin |
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#15 Posted: 5/18/2012 6:14:29 PM 
Palmer
Overton Wow triples 18 to lose by 2 WTF  |
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Bluefin |
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#16 Posted: 5/19/2012 12:37:32 PM
Palmer -130/Campbell 5 units
Ernie Els+105/B Davis 5 units
JJ Henry-105/B Adams 5 units |
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Bluefin |
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#17 Posted: 5/19/2012 6:04:19 PM
Palmer -130/Campbell 5 units
Ernie Els+105/B Davis 5 units
JJ Henry-105/B Adams 5 units |
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Bluefin |
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#18 Posted: 5/19/2012 8:21:44 PM
VJ +1334
Els-110/Howell 5 units
Henry-110/Pride 5 units
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Bluefin |
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#19 Posted: 5/20/2012 5:58:26 AM
Got up early playing a little game today ..was thinking my thread is as dull as my picks so I thought I'd throw out a bone.Bogey this is for you..
One stat that I always like to look at and compare that I'm not sure a lot of people do in H2H is just how the last 4 or 5 at that site final rounds compare.I also compare how they got to that number by comparing each cat DD<DA<GIR etc to current year and this years numbers.
Head to Head matchup
Els 4th rd fnl 2006/68 2005/66 2004/67 2002/69 CHWIII 4th rd fnl 20011/70 2009/73 err:2007MC/exc:69 2006/69 err:2005MC/69 2003/72
Here is a stat I like to look at a simple comparison of last round scores in previous years.What makes this one stand out is
a complete sweep by ELS in every year with a lower last round even the years when CWH missed the cut his best here was 69.
Is this a valid stat that should in anyway sway ones perspective probably not when you look at current form the amount of years between events and so forth but its a check in the box ...
I played Ernie after looking at his round and thinking he is just far enough off the pace so that the pressure on him should not be too much and with some decent final round memories he might have a low one tomorrow.CWH III is playing well and seems to be pretty solid here as well but he has that nagging bogey on 18 last two rounds and although he is bombing it off the tee his putter may be suspect with hot cold syndrome.
The last matchup I couldn't stay away from the match of the soggy bottom boys ...JJ agin Dickey sheet boys that n'll be a barn burner..worth a nickle just too see who can make it till 18 without losing his drawers.
BOL to all today |
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YoungCAP |
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#20 Posted: 5/20/2012 9:19:18 AM
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Bluefin |
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#21 Posted: 5/20/2012 5:46:12 PM  |
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Bluefin |
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#22 Posted: 5/20/2012 5:55:32 PM  |
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Bluefin |
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#23 Posted: 5/21/2012 7:55:39 AM
VJ +1334 
Els-110/Howell 5 units Push
Henry-110/Pride 5 units
-16.75 for the tourney
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Bluefin |
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#24 Posted: 5/21/2012 8:21:08 AM Champions Tour -6.50units Futures -21.00 units
Total -30.60 units
Wow Did I f..k this season up  Blew over 60 units in PGA
might have to consider retirement 
or a steroid regiment  |
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