|Anybody can win in the NFL, SU upsets happen every week. But is the exception, not the rule. Oddsmakers make the lines for a reason and money moves them accordingly. The favorites usually win, even if they don't cover.
Posted: 9/12/2012 8:25:59 PM
Since 2003, in the NFL regular season, there have been 1,384 games played with a spread of -4 or higher. The favorites have straight up won 1,035 of these games. Or about 75%. I will assume, for the sake of argument, that(generally speaking) a spread of 4.5-5.5 will fall in line with the home team being about a -200 to -250 favorite in these situations and all favorites(road or home) being at least -160 when favored by a a minimum of 4 points.
Considering Obama is the incumbent with a supposed "home field" advantage, the lines we currently see offered are dictating about a 5(give or take 0.5) point Obama advantage(-223 at Pinnacle, -235 at 5dimes).
Statistically speaking, being such a favorite, Obama should win SU appromixately 75% of the time, if you want to make NFL analogies and comparisons.
Obama doesn't need to cover. He just needs to win. Huge difference. Right now, it's looking quite favorable.
Also, it appears Romney just fumbled the ball inside his own 35 with his glaring faux pas on the Egyptian/Libyan embassies situation last night. Not a smart or winning play. His QB coach and offensive coordinator are throwing their clipboards and staring at him in disbelief.
Team Obama with the lead and the ball. First and 10 near FG range. Start of the 4th quarter.
I would not bet against them.