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Author: [Politics] Topic: Recent polling shows huge convention bounce for Obama
14daroad send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
14daroad
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#26
Posted: 9/12/2012 5:34:47 PM
Sorry, but dead cat bounce:

The survey shows that the race remains close among likely voters, with Obama at 49 percent and Romney at 48 percent, virtually unchanged from a poll taken just before the conventions.
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#27
Posted: 9/12/2012 5:35:50 PM
obama -223 at pinnacle. 


I love that. It confirms everything I said about the people betting on this election. 

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#28
Posted: 9/12/2012 7:32:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

damn, obama -23 at pinnacle. i guess this one's over.  what are we going to talk about in this forum for the next two months?


The ML on the Packers game on Sunday was -245
The ML on the Saints game on Sunday was -435
Panthers -140
Seahawks -150

Obama is favored because he's going to win!
Obama is going to win because he's favored!


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TheGoldenGoose
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#29
Posted: 9/12/2012 8:24:12 PM


betislands now has Obama -240.

Oh well, free money as I see it anyway.

The odds will only go higher after each debate.

Gimme the incumbent, laying $2,400 to make $1,000.

See you winners at the cash window.   
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#30
Posted: 9/12/2012 8:25:59 PM
Anybody can win in the NFL, SU upsets happen every week. But is the exception, not the rule.  Oddsmakers make the lines for a reason and money moves them accordingly. The favorites usually win, even if they don't cover. 

Since 2003, in the NFL regular season, there have been 1,384 games played with a spread of -4 or higher. The favorites have straight up won 1,035 of these games. Or about 75%.

I will assume, for the sake of argument, that(generally speaking) a spread of 4.5-5.5 will fall in line with the home team being about a -200 to -250 favorite in these situations and all favorites(road or home) being at least -160 when favored by a a minimum of 4 points.

Considering Obama is the incumbent with a supposed "home field" advantage, the lines we currently see offered are dictating about a 5(give or take 0.5) point Obama advantage(-223 at Pinnacle, -235 at 5dimes). 

Statistically speaking, being such a favorite, Obama should win SU appromixately 75% of the time, if you want to make NFL analogies and comparisons. 

Obama doesn't need to cover. He just needs to win. Huge difference. Right now, it's looking quite favorable. 

Also, it appears Romney just fumbled the ball inside his own 35 with his glaring faux pas on the Egyptian/Libyan embassies situation last night. Not a smart or winning play. His QB coach and offensive coordinator are throwing their clipboards and staring at him in disbelief.



Team Obama with the lead and the ball. First and 10 near FG range. Start of the 4th quarter. 

I would not bet against them.

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TheGoldenGoose
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#31
Posted: 9/12/2012 8:51:14 PM

betislands has raised it to Democrat -250 now.

And they have me limited to a $200 maximum wager.

Wagering $200 to make $80. 

Whoopie, Wifey will blow that on nails and a pedicure.


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14daroad send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#32
Posted: 9/13/2012 9:17:08 AM

Team Obama with the lead and the ball. First and 10 near FG range. Start of the 4th quarter

What lead? Obama has less cash on hand than Romney.

There are zero incumbent Senators in close races embracing Obama. (Media ignore anti-Obama Dems)

Obama is the most unpopular 1st Term President in modern history and the econmy sucks.

 

 

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#33
Posted: 9/13/2012 11:39:26 AM

Romney re-takes lead in Rasmuessen daily tracking poll.

Dead

Cat

Bounce

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#34
Posted: 9/13/2012 10:53:32 PM
14.
Care to make a bet?

Posted using a mobile device.
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TheGoldenGoose
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#35
Posted: 9/13/2012 11:54:30 PM


14 is getting serious...

Communicating in normal size 10 script.



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TheGoldenGoose
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#36
Posted: 9/14/2012 3:07:00 AM


Yes, there are two paths you can go by,
but in the long run
There's still time
to change the road you're on.



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