Hope everyone is good and ready for a profitable season. As much as I love the summer, September brings regular season football.
I was thinking about tracking the 1st half under - 2nd have OVER theory for primetime games. You still have to pick your spots, but I did well on this last year. I didn't post any plays on Wed (Didn't even log into covers... my bad), but I called a 7-3 1st half score. Congrats to the over betters in the 2nd half. Lipps was on it as usual.
Since the primetime games often have divisional game matchups, this strategy seemed to pan out a lot last year. Especially at the end of the season and in the playoffs.
This week:
Pitt @ Denver
Cincy @ Balt
SD @ Oak
I can see all those games being low scoring in the 1st half. And I think they are all good candidates to open up a bit in the 2nd half ala the Cowgirls/GMen game.
This weeks matchups: Peyton shaking off the rust, and Pitt likely won't be in sync. Especially early. Wallace can't possibly be in mid-season form and the Pitt running game is all over the place.
Cincy and Balt, I'm less confident in that matchup, but I'll wait until I see Flacco run this no huddle offensive juggernaut before taking a 1st half over. In this divisional matchup, nobody wants to lose this game.
And finally SD @ OAK. Neither team has been practicing with all their starters on offense. Mathews won't play and I don't trust Ronnie Brown. The Raider WRs are a bit a of wildcard in this one. The biggest wildcards are Gates and DMC. Those two could screw over the under bet in the 1st half, but I'm expecting a tight game to start.
Hope everyone is good and ready for a profitable season. As much as I love the summer, September brings regular season football.
I was thinking about tracking the 1st half under - 2nd have OVER theory for primetime games. You still have to pick your spots, but I did well on this last year. I didn't post any plays on Wed (Didn't even log into covers... my bad), but I called a 7-3 1st half score. Congrats to the over betters in the 2nd half. Lipps was on it as usual.
Since the primetime games often have divisional game matchups, this strategy seemed to pan out a lot last year. Especially at the end of the season and in the playoffs.
This week:
Pitt @ Denver
Cincy @ Balt
SD @ Oak
I can see all those games being low scoring in the 1st half. And I think they are all good candidates to open up a bit in the 2nd half ala the Cowgirls/GMen game.
This weeks matchups: Peyton shaking off the rust, and Pitt likely won't be in sync. Especially early. Wallace can't possibly be in mid-season form and the Pitt running game is all over the place.
Cincy and Balt, I'm less confident in that matchup, but I'll wait until I see Flacco run this no huddle offensive juggernaut before taking a 1st half over. In this divisional matchup, nobody wants to lose this game.
And finally SD @ OAK. Neither team has been practicing with all their starters on offense. Mathews won't play and I don't trust Ronnie Brown. The Raider WRs are a bit a of wildcard in this one. The biggest wildcards are Gates and DMC. Those two could screw over the under bet in the 1st half, but I'm expecting a tight game to start.
Cincinnati Bengals/Baltimore Ravens (U 20.5) for 1st Half.+104
I'm a little late, but I'm definitely on this play tonight. As well as the SD OAK game, even though I like the OVER to hit on the full game O/U 46.5/47 -- Whatever was available. I'm not keeping track of my personal record in this thread, just the theory and lines.
terpnskins -- Congrats buddy - I tailed and did the same bets!
Thanks bud. Glad it hit for someone other than me.
jerzeyboy56 -- good work, i like the angle looking forward to more posts
Thanks dude. It's definitely not something that I've put a ton of time into. Just something I noticed was pretty successful for me over half the time. Let's see what happens.
LasVegasLord -- How's it going buddy? Good to see you and have a great season.
Hey bud! Good to see ya on the boards. Good luck this year to you as well. Pucks is right away the corner too!
Cincinnati Bengals/Baltimore Ravens (U 20.5) for 1st Half.+104
I'm a little late, but I'm definitely on this play tonight. As well as the SD OAK game, even though I like the OVER to hit on the full game O/U 46.5/47 -- Whatever was available. I'm not keeping track of my personal record in this thread, just the theory and lines.
terpnskins -- Congrats buddy - I tailed and did the same bets!
Thanks bud. Glad it hit for someone other than me.
jerzeyboy56 -- good work, i like the angle looking forward to more posts
Thanks dude. It's definitely not something that I've put a ton of time into. Just something I noticed was pretty successful for me over half the time. Let's see what happens.
LasVegasLord -- How's it going buddy? Good to see you and have a great season.
Hey bud! Good to see ya on the boards. Good luck this year to you as well. Pucks is right away the corner too!
Well... so far this lil strategy is 6-1 with the lone loser being the Bengals/Ravens 1st half. The Bengals did everything they could to make this go 7-0 by going for it on 4th downs, but BJGE finally punched it in.
Already liking the OVER in the 2nd half of this Raiders/Chargers game... gotta see the line. Should be 23.5 at the most right?
Well... so far this lil strategy is 6-1 with the lone loser being the Bengals/Ravens 1st half. The Bengals did everything they could to make this go 7-0 by going for it on 4th downs, but BJGE finally punched it in.
Already liking the OVER in the 2nd half of this Raiders/Chargers game... gotta see the line. Should be 23.5 at the most right?
Forgot to update the split after Thursday night. I didn't play anything on Thursday cuz I hit the bars at halftime. Wouldn't have played the 2nd Half OVER anyway after watching how that game was playing out.
To recap Thursday: The 1st Half UNDER hit again, the 2nd Half OVER did not.
1st Half UNDER -- 4-1 (Cincy/Balt being the lone loser)
2nd Half OVER --- 3-2 (SD/OAK and CHI/GB were the losing OVER bets)
Overall: 7-3 on the season. 1st Half UNDERS have been great bets in primetime. The 2nd Half OVER hasn't been great, but like I said... that CHI/GB game wasn't shaping up for a good 2nd Half OVER bet anyway.
Forgot to update the split after Thursday night. I didn't play anything on Thursday cuz I hit the bars at halftime. Wouldn't have played the 2nd Half OVER anyway after watching how that game was playing out.
To recap Thursday: The 1st Half UNDER hit again, the 2nd Half OVER did not.
1st Half UNDER -- 4-1 (Cincy/Balt being the lone loser)
2nd Half OVER --- 3-2 (SD/OAK and CHI/GB were the losing OVER bets)
Overall: 7-3 on the season. 1st Half UNDERS have been great bets in primetime. The 2nd Half OVER hasn't been great, but like I said... that CHI/GB game wasn't shaping up for a good 2nd Half OVER bet anyway.
Alright, so it appears the line has dropped on the 1st Half UNDER. Pinny has it at U25.5 at -110... it was plus money last night.
Since I like the OVER for the full game total, I kinda like the 1st Half OVER as well at EVEN money +100 tonight. Going against this little primetime theory tonight of 1st Half UNDERS.
Matt Ryan and the Falcons have been coming out fast, and I'm looking for them to set the tone tonight.
The question I was asking myself today was: Can this get to 17-10 by halftime? And I'm going with an emphatic YES.
Playing the 1st Half OVER, the O52 and a 7 point teaser with DEN +10/OVER 43.5.
Alright, so it appears the line has dropped on the 1st Half UNDER. Pinny has it at U25.5 at -110... it was plus money last night.
Since I like the OVER for the full game total, I kinda like the 1st Half OVER as well at EVEN money +100 tonight. Going against this little primetime theory tonight of 1st Half UNDERS.
Matt Ryan and the Falcons have been coming out fast, and I'm looking for them to set the tone tonight.
The question I was asking myself today was: Can this get to 17-10 by halftime? And I'm going with an emphatic YES.
Playing the 1st Half OVER, the O52 and a 7 point teaser with DEN +10/OVER 43.5.
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