I have a lot to say about this game, so I figured I'd make my own separate post so it doesn't come off as "bashing" or anything to anyone.
This line smells awful. Oklahoma City has won four straight games, covering the spread in three of them (the one exception was a nine-point victory versus a ten-point spread against Minnesota). These four victories have been against a range of "difficulty" as far as teams are concerned: you've got a win versus Miami, as well as wins against Minnesota & the Clippers, and the latest against the Blazers. One thing that hasn't changed very much is the margine of victory. OKC has won these last four games by totals of 14,16, 9 and 21 (an average of 15 PPG). For the season, the Thunder are above .500 in the following ATS trends:
- As Away Team (14-11)
- As Away Favorite (13-10)
Both of these trends fit this game. However, there is one trend that OKC as struggled with this season and that is covering the spread after a win. Right now, they are 17-21 this season in doing so, including adding one to that win column just the other night after covering against Portland (making them 16-21 previous to that game, which was front-loaded with wins in the first-half of the season). If you consider their first win after the All-Star break to be victory number-one of the second half, against Portland the other night is the ONLY time they've covered the spread two straight-up victories in a row and this is a team with eleven wins since the break.
On the other hand, you've got the Los Angeles Lakers, heading into this game lead by sharp-shooting Andrew "What Was That" Bynum. There is a lot being made of the "turmoil" going on in the Lakers locker room. Hasn't this been an issue all season long? Why is the sudden benching of Andrew Bynum and his immature attitude (which he's had for years) suddently an issue that's going to start the Lakers on a downhill slide? I don't understand it. This has been an argument against the Lakers in EVERY game!
The other thing that bothers me is reading people's angles on this game, acting as if Vegas isn't aware of the situation. These lines are not created on trends and stats alone. Adjustments (or non-adjustments, IMO) has been made to Lakers lines ALL season. Yet the Lakers are a perfect 2-0 ATS as a home underdog and 9-8 ATS as an underdog (home or away) for the entire season. Just so that I address the same trend I ragged on OKC about (wins ATS after SU victories), the Lakers are 12-18 in that same category this season which is atrocious. However, unlike OKC, who front-loaded most of their victories in this category, the Lakers are a consistant 4-4 since the break in this same category.
The fact that this line is only a point should tell you everything you need to know. In the public's mind, OKC is hot, hot, hot and the Lakers are not, not, not. However, the Lakers have won three of their last four just like the Thunder have, including a tough road win in Dallas. From what I can tell, as of right now, 81% of people are believing what they see on SportsCenter that OKC is unstoppable and that the Lakers are in disarray.
The Thunder is a great team and I have no doubt they are on the short list to represent the West in the NBA Finals. The Lakers are having issues, but they've always had issues. If they didn't have issues, they wouldn't be the Lakers. I'm on Los Angeles tonight. I forgot to mention the revenge angle, especially considering how the Thunder made Kobe & Co. look the last time they saw.
I may not know much, but there is one thing I'm certain of when it comes ot the NBA: hell hath no fury like a Kobe Bryant scorned.
Lakers ML