Iona ML +115 (Heritage) (Risking 0.5 Units to win 0.57)
First of all, I don't think BYU even belongs in the tournament. They beat up on bad teams at home and haven't proven anything all year away from home. Virginia Tech, Oregon and Gonzaga (1 out of 3) are there only 3 wins vs. top 100 opponents. They are a team that relies on there offense, and its not nearly as efficient as they were with Jimmer and co. last year.
For the actual matchup, they don't match up well with Iona. Iona plays the same kind of uptempo offense that BYU plays, except that they do it much better. BYU just doesn't matchup well with teams who can outrun them, and they are not nearly athletic as Iona. Teams with good point guards have killed BYU all year and Machado is one of the best in the country.... The style of play will definitely favor Iona.
As for Iona, I felt that they didn't have much of a chance against a team that will slow the tempo down and make them play a halfcourt game. BYU is not that at all, and Iona got very lucky with the matchup given. And if BYU tries to play the weak zone that sometimes switch to, Iona can easily shoot them out of it with 40% 3-point shooting. There's just not much that I can see BYU doing to slow the pace down, and overall, I feel that Iona will be able to prevail as the much more athletic team.
Just like the first game, this matchup definitely favors the underdog. South Florida is not a pretty team... they are boring, they don't score and they look to play as little amount of possessions as possible. California on the other hand plays much more uptempo and looks to shoot on the first good shot. There defense is solid, but its all predicated on how the offense is doing.
South Florida overall is a terrible matchup for Cal. All year they have beat up on lazy defenses and struggled against the good defensive teams like Colorado, UNLV, Missouri and San Diego State. USF defense will drive the Bears offense crazy and they are gonna struggle to get to 50. South Florida on the other hand has faced tough defenses all season in the Big East... They will be prepared for a Cal team that feasted on horrible offensive teams in the Pac-12 like USC and Utah.
Overall, the physical defense of USF will be too much to overcome for Cal while USF will score just enough like they have all season.