1-0 last play, winning the Portland / San Francisco over on 3/1
Play: BYU / Gonzaga Over 143
This
one may not come as any surprise to those of you that have read my
posts this season as there are many things to like about this BYU team
as I've backed overs with them several times this season. They come in tonight as the 5th fastest paced team in the country with an offensive efficiency of 1.063 points per possession (#83).
BYU has not played a WCC
game this year under 69 possessions, and all but 2 exceeded 71
possessions. In the two prior meetings with the Zags this season, the
games saw 82 and 75 possessions. KenPom predicts there will be 73 possessions tonight. So one thing is fairly certain tonight, pace will not be an
issue.
Now let's compare tonight's total to their previous two meetings. The first meeting saw a final score of 83 - 73 on a posted total of 149. The most recent meeting is where we find value for tonight. It was a 74 - 63 final on a posted total of 146.
But let's dig deeper into that game. The 63 points were the lowest point total BYU had in their 16 WCC games, and was a result of 30.8% shooting from the field, and 56.3% from the charity stripe. But despite this woeful shooting performance, the final was only 6 points below tonight's total. Furthermore, BYU actually attempted 78 shots in that game! Tonight there should definitely be a regression back towards the mean with respect to their shooting.
But the biggest factor may be the fact that leading scorer Noah Hartsock was hurt in that game and only played 7 minutes. His first game back since then was last night vs San Diego and he showed no signs of rust as he came off the bench to play 27 minutes, lead his team with 19 points, and grabbed 5 rebounds.
In my opinion, I thought we'd see a total above 145 in this game due to the combination of pace and the return of Hartsock. And due to the competitive nature that can be expected in tonight's game, there also is a good chance for late game scramble points
Good luck if you decide to make a play
(Worth noting -- I locked this total in at 143 earlier in the day. Before having time to post, the total has come down and 142/142.5 is currently available as I write this. This does not have me worried)
1-0 last play, winning the Portland / San Francisco over on 3/1
Play: BYU / Gonzaga Over 143
This
one may not come as any surprise to those of you that have read my
posts this season as there are many things to like about this BYU team
as I've backed overs with them several times this season. They come in tonight as the 5th fastest paced team in the country with an offensive efficiency of 1.063 points per possession (#83).
BYU has not played a WCC
game this year under 69 possessions, and all but 2 exceeded 71
possessions. In the two prior meetings with the Zags this season, the
games saw 82 and 75 possessions. KenPom predicts there will be 73 possessions tonight. So one thing is fairly certain tonight, pace will not be an
issue.
Now let's compare tonight's total to their previous two meetings. The first meeting saw a final score of 83 - 73 on a posted total of 149. The most recent meeting is where we find value for tonight. It was a 74 - 63 final on a posted total of 146.
But let's dig deeper into that game. The 63 points were the lowest point total BYU had in their 16 WCC games, and was a result of 30.8% shooting from the field, and 56.3% from the charity stripe. But despite this woeful shooting performance, the final was only 6 points below tonight's total. Furthermore, BYU actually attempted 78 shots in that game! Tonight there should definitely be a regression back towards the mean with respect to their shooting.
But the biggest factor may be the fact that leading scorer Noah Hartsock was hurt in that game and only played 7 minutes. His first game back since then was last night vs San Diego and he showed no signs of rust as he came off the bench to play 27 minutes, lead his team with 19 points, and grabbed 5 rebounds.
In my opinion, I thought we'd see a total above 145 in this game due to the combination of pace and the return of Hartsock. And due to the competitive nature that can be expected in tonight's game, there also is a good chance for late game scramble points
Good luck if you decide to make a play
(Worth noting -- I locked this total in at 143 earlier in the day. Before having time to post, the total has come down and 142/142.5 is currently available as I write this. This does not have me worried)
maybe this does not mean anything but the covers experts all like the under
Probably because "they" see that the under is 4-0 in BYU's L4 or 5-0 in Gonzaga's L5.
Or maybe "they" like that Gonzaga is only allowing 60.8 ppg in their L8 over the past month
But as my posts try to illustrate, there is must more to totals than stats such as these that people often assign too much weight to. Could this go under tonight? Of course it could. But I've backed unpopular totals before, and I'll continue to do so if I believe there is value in the number for that game
maybe this does not mean anything but the covers experts all like the under
Probably because "they" see that the under is 4-0 in BYU's L4 or 5-0 in Gonzaga's L5.
Or maybe "they" like that Gonzaga is only allowing 60.8 ppg in their L8 over the past month
But as my posts try to illustrate, there is must more to totals than stats such as these that people often assign too much weight to. Could this go under tonight? Of course it could. But I've backed unpopular totals before, and I'll continue to do so if I believe there is value in the number for that game
riccio how do u feel about the first half over then? its only 67 feel like that one will be easier to win
If I may offer my 2 cents, 1H overs can be tricky, especially in "big" games. They could be nervous or just trying to feel each other out, and by the time they get a good tempo going, there's 8:00 left to play in the half.
Not playing the full game also robs you of the glorious late-game fouling opportunity, which is particularly key in a game such as this one which is expected to be close.
riccio how do u feel about the first half over then? its only 67 feel like that one will be easier to win
If I may offer my 2 cents, 1H overs can be tricky, especially in "big" games. They could be nervous or just trying to feel each other out, and by the time they get a good tempo going, there's 8:00 left to play in the half.
Not playing the full game also robs you of the glorious late-game fouling opportunity, which is particularly key in a game such as this one which is expected to be close.
riccio how do u feel about the first half over then? its only 67 feel like that one will be easier to win
I typically stay away from 1st half plays. The statistics I use to handicap are based on full game results -- applying them to only the first half decreases the correlation of these statistics.
I can tell you that they played to 64 and 62 in their previous match-ups this year.
riccio how do u feel about the first half over then? its only 67 feel like that one will be easier to win
I typically stay away from 1st half plays. The statistics I use to handicap are based on full game results -- applying them to only the first half decreases the correlation of these statistics.
I can tell you that they played to 64 and 62 in their previous match-ups this year.
Just took it at 145 myself...if I would grabbed it 5 minutes earlier I would have got it at 143.5. And of course I just checked it and back to 144.5. Damn
Just took it at 145 myself...if I would grabbed it 5 minutes earlier I would have got it at 143.5. And of course I just checked it and back to 144.5. Damn
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