Velez took their sweet time to bust Chivas' balls . . . but luckily, it happened. Interesting - Velez has won both of their Copa matches 0-3 and 3-0 . . . with the only first half goal being a 42' minute strike in their away match at Defensor Sporting. The other two goals in the D.S. match were scored in the final ten minuts by Velez . . . With two goals also being scored by Velez in yesterday's match in the final ten minutes.
THE STRONGEST o/2.5 (-124) 1 unit
THE STRONGEST -1.5 (+105) 3 units
First, the line for the ML victory for T.S. opened at -300. It is now down to -267. In addition, the -1.5 has stuck solid and hasn't budged from the +105. So ... I may be giving T.S. too much love . . . but if loving them is wrong, I don't want to be right.
Location, location, location. La Paz is at 11,942 ft; Juan Aurich's pitch in Peru is at 89 ft. This should play an important factor in FAVOR of The Strongest.
The Strongest looked really good in beating last year's Copa winner Santos in the first match of Group play on Feb 15 . . . a very entertaining game with The Strongest playing hard and fast. Looking at Gamecast, it looks like The STrongest kept applying pressure in the second half . . . tallying more shots against Santos . . . likey "altitude" being exploited. FAVOR of The Strongest.
There was a risk that the victory over Santos might cause The Strongest to come out flat-footed in this one. . . However, The Strongest has now seen its chief league competitor lose 1-3 in La Paz against Union Espanola. This should motivate The Strongest for a number of reasons: (1) Their coach will hammer them that they should not underestimate today's opponent and that home turf ain't the end all be all of the match. (2) By winning the second match in Copa whereas team Bolivar failed earlier this week, The Strongest can take a dig at their local league competitor. FAVOR of The Strongest.
Juan Aurich and other Peruvian teams are apparently experiencing financial woes. In addition, J.A. has only played two games this season (the Copa match it lost and a league game) - both of which were played away from home . . . J.A. lost both . . . J.A. generally doesn't travel well AND specifically - in COPA, it's lost its last 4 away matches with a goal differential of 11-1. Unlike J.A., The Strongest have already competed in several games this season, with a home goal differential of 8-2. They've also scored in their 2 away games (drawing and losing one each) . . .
Reports indicate that an attacker and two midfielders are not traveling with J.A. Chiroque. Luis Tejada. J. Araujo. In addition, C. Ortiz, one of J.A.'s primary midfielders is out due to a red card picked up in the last match. By comparison, The STrongest is well rested and is not suffering from any injury concerns.
Negative - a draw in this match will put The Strongest into the top of Group 1 ... currently they sit tied with Internacional ... who next plays in early March . . . slight ding against The Strongest . . .
A quote from one of J.A.'s defenders ... "We know the difficulty of playing at altitude and the rival, it will be difficult, but nothing is impossible," said Argentine defender Leandro Fleitas." I like this kind of mindset ... it sounds defeatist to me.
The Strongest has had a week off to prepare for this game - to rest. To recharge . . . J.A. played away 5 days ago ... losing 3-1 . . . At altitude, two extra days should help. Advantage J.A.
As mentioned above, a draw or win puts The Strongest to the top of Group 2 . . . Inter, who sits tied at top with The Strongest, plays The Strongest AT Inter . . . The Strongest cannot afford to simply draw this match today . . . as they will likely be fearful of Inter away from La Paz.
J.A. has the dubious role of playing its first two Copa matches away ... tonight is the second one . . . they may just try to limit the damage/park the bus and defend for their life . . . but that should play into the capable offensive hands of The Strongest.
The Strongest ... in summary ... should be looking to exploit its sea level advantage to get the points from teams like J.A. (in its current state) . . . before venturing away from La Paz . . .