Exactly
Exactly
Critical thinking: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OLPL5p0fMg
My own important rules for gambling:
#1. Money management / Bankroll management is extremely important. Use a money management system and stick with it religiously. Give yourself a limit per week and know when to quit. You should be using 1% to 10% of your bankroll for each bet.
#2. Bet because you can win. Never bet for the action or just because it's your favorite team. Be selective. Pick your spots and wait for the right opportunity.
#3. Pay attention to the lines all the way to the end of the week, try to make profit off the line. Always shop for the best line, Always! You should have an account in multiple books.
#4. Know that you are making profits off of other gamblers, you are not making profit off of the casinos and line makers. That's why they adjust the lines and value accordingly.
#5. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.
#6. Patience & Discipline is the key. Develop these skills.
#7. Pay attention to injuries to important players, it can effect the outcome of a game.
#8. Never play Parlays. This gives the house the edge.
#9. Teasers are profitable. Especially on divisional games.
#10. Pay attention to home field advantage. Teams that travel from a west coast team to the east coast is 6-30 SU.
Here are betting styles I took from someone on the internet:
1. Establish a base line for the game to determine value when a line is more or less than your number. You can do this by using power ratings and weekly adjustment charts to update each team's power rating weekly.
2. Situational handicapping- look for things like revenge, maybe a player is shooting his mouth off, key injuries. Note; linemakers are sharp and generally build the line to compensate for the injury, it's when the public overbets the injury to look at playing the otherside.
3.Statistical handicapping- does a team have a top ranked rushing or passing game going against a low ranked defense. Turnovers?
4. Fundemental handicapping- are their any strong trends or coaching advantages. How well do they play on the road? What is their red zone %, are they able to run the clock out with a lead, etc...
Critical thinking: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OLPL5p0fMg
My own important rules for gambling:
#1. Money management / Bankroll management is extremely important. Use a money management system and stick with it religiously. Give yourself a limit per week and know when to quit. You should be using 1% to 10% of your bankroll for each bet.
#2. Bet because you can win. Never bet for the action or just because it's your favorite team. Be selective. Pick your spots and wait for the right opportunity.
#3. Pay attention to the lines all the way to the end of the week, try to make profit off the line. Always shop for the best line, Always! You should have an account in multiple books.
#4. Know that you are making profits off of other gamblers, you are not making profit off of the casinos and line makers. That's why they adjust the lines and value accordingly.
#5. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.
#6. Patience & Discipline is the key. Develop these skills.
#7. Pay attention to injuries to important players, it can effect the outcome of a game.
#8. Never play Parlays. This gives the house the edge.
#9. Teasers are profitable. Especially on divisional games.
#10. Pay attention to home field advantage. Teams that travel from a west coast team to the east coast is 6-30 SU.
Here are betting styles I took from someone on the internet:
1. Establish a base line for the game to determine value when a line is more or less than your number. You can do this by using power ratings and weekly adjustment charts to update each team's power rating weekly.
2. Situational handicapping- look for things like revenge, maybe a player is shooting his mouth off, key injuries. Note; linemakers are sharp and generally build the line to compensate for the injury, it's when the public overbets the injury to look at playing the otherside.
3.Statistical handicapping- does a team have a top ranked rushing or passing game going against a low ranked defense. Turnovers?
4. Fundemental handicapping- are their any strong trends or coaching advantages. How well do they play on the road? What is their red zone %, are they able to run the clock out with a lead, etc...
You are focusing on the Public and Sharps.
But what you should be focusing on is the line makers / casino / house, whatever you want to call them.
I believe that the line makers are making the most money off the super bowl from the prop bets (coin flip and gatorade color bath) these are trap bets. The public can win.
The goal of the casino is to make the most money off the public.
Let's say a total of 10 people. 5 people bet on the Patriots, 5 people bet on the Giants, both ATS bets, each person risking $100 to win back $191. Total money pot is $1000.
Ok, now let's say the Patriots win. 5 x $191 is $955. $955 goes back the the public, the $45 goes to you, your casino makes a profit of $45 off the public.
If 4 people bet on the Giants, 6 people bet on the Patriots. The public wins.
If 5 people bet on the Giants, 5 people bet on the Patriots, The casino wins.
If 6 people bet on the Giants, 4 people bet on the Patriots, The casino wins.
The fact that when you risk $100, you are not doubling your money to $200. It's usually $191 on either side, this gives the casino the house edge. Depending on how the public is dumping their money, the value can go above $200 in the publics favor.
There's line movement, but there's also value movement.
You are focusing on the Public and Sharps.
But what you should be focusing on is the line makers / casino / house, whatever you want to call them.
I believe that the line makers are making the most money off the super bowl from the prop bets (coin flip and gatorade color bath) these are trap bets. The public can win.
The goal of the casino is to make the most money off the public.
Let's say a total of 10 people. 5 people bet on the Patriots, 5 people bet on the Giants, both ATS bets, each person risking $100 to win back $191. Total money pot is $1000.
Ok, now let's say the Patriots win. 5 x $191 is $955. $955 goes back the the public, the $45 goes to you, your casino makes a profit of $45 off the public.
If 4 people bet on the Giants, 6 people bet on the Patriots. The public wins.
If 5 people bet on the Giants, 5 people bet on the Patriots, The casino wins.
If 6 people bet on the Giants, 4 people bet on the Patriots, The casino wins.
The fact that when you risk $100, you are not doubling your money to $200. It's usually $191 on either side, this gives the casino the house edge. Depending on how the public is dumping their money, the value can go above $200 in the publics favor.
There's line movement, but there's also value movement.
As of right now, most of the public is the Giants side is to risk $100 to win back $180. While the Patriots side is to risk $100 to win back $205. The casinos are making profit here.
As of right now, most of the public is the Giants side is to risk $100 to win back $180. While the Patriots side is to risk $100 to win back $205. The casinos are making profit here.
@ worthashot.... thanks for the grammatical compliments.
If I was going to take up that much of people's time to read the post, the least I could do was make it legible!
i am being swayed your way on the public vs. sharps arguement.... like i mentioned in my write up, i think it's more valuable to have a few reliable sources in your inner circle that can guide you. Either that, or just go with your gut and know long term you won or lost on your own volition.
@ worthashot.... thanks for the grammatical compliments.
If I was going to take up that much of people's time to read the post, the least I could do was make it legible!
i am being swayed your way on the public vs. sharps arguement.... like i mentioned in my write up, i think it's more valuable to have a few reliable sources in your inner circle that can guide you. Either that, or just go with your gut and know long term you won or lost on your own volition.
Ok, last one. For now. It may be time for a seperate thread on "Trends --- Useful or Not Useful. How numbers Can Lie"
In Super Bowl, teams of back to back underdog wins are on 6-1-1 run against the spread.
Teams with the better win percentage are 0 for their last 8 against the spread.
NFC teams are on 8-1-1 run against the spread vs. 800 or greater opponents.
Ok, last one. For now. It may be time for a seperate thread on "Trends --- Useful or Not Useful. How numbers Can Lie"
In Super Bowl, teams of back to back underdog wins are on 6-1-1 run against the spread.
Teams with the better win percentage are 0 for their last 8 against the spread.
NFC teams are on 8-1-1 run against the spread vs. 800 or greater opponents.
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