Atlanta @ NO
I posted this write
up on my head to head capping contest vs ILPROTO (who is opening a big can of ‘whopp
azz’ on me currently…. Feel free to check it out @ https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=13254&sub=101215334&page=16
Let’s look at some statistical facts:
Points allowed:
Atlanta allowed an average of 20.1 pts per game this season,
18 pts per game in L3 games. New Orleans
has allowed 21.9 per game (season), and 18 per game in the L3. In head to head in the last 3 matchups they
scored a total (combined) 131 pts—43.7 average, and only 61 total pts in the
first half’s of those last 3 matchups
Vs top 10teams in defensive sacks rankings:
ATL: vs Philly they scored 35 total, and 14 in the first half,
========vs Detroit they scored 23 total,
and 17 in the first half,======= vs Minnesota they scored 24, and 17 in the first half=======vs
Houston they scored 10, and 3 in the
first half. This is an average of 23
with 12.75 first half points.
NO: vs Houston they scored 40 with 10 1st half pts======= vs Jax they scored 23 with 14 1st half
pts======vs NYG’s they scored 49 with 21
first half pts=======vs Detroit they scored 31 with 24 first half pts (note: Detroits best pass rusher Suh—not sack
leader, but pass rusher-- was out of this game)====vs Minnesota they scored
42 with 21 first half pts (Note: the
vast majority of sacks for Minn came in the early season, as their last season
secondary is comprised on mostly unqualified NFL players due to vast injuries) Due to the misleading game stats of the Minnesota
and Detroit games, I am not going to tabulate those figures into this
stat/fact/total: NO scored (in these
games) 112 pts and 45 first half pts.
Average of 37.3 and 15 first half pts…
hits/hurries/sacks: Drew Brees, Brady, Manning, or any of the
elite QB’s are very normal if they are not given the time to ‘check down’ their
potential recievers—we have seen the proof of this over and over again. This (HHS )stat tends to mean a lot more than
simply ‘sacks’. Many rate a pass rush by
how many sacks they get, but the H/H/S stat tells a much deeper story… so lets
look at that a moment:
Passing games: Atlanta is the 11th ranked pass D
in the NFL due to the persistent pass rush (hits, hurries, sacks) of John
Abraham, Jonathan Babinea, and even Corey Peters combine for a total of 29.2%
hits, hurries, and sacks. So, it is not
so much the sack total, but the time they don’t usually allow that can play a
big factor in this game. New Orlean’s on
the other end of the argument is not extensively productive in Sacks, or H/H/S’s,
and Matt Ryan should be able to capitalize on this fact. Of QB’s with 25+ Tds, only Aaron Rogers, Drew
Brees, Tom Brady, and Tony Romo have less INT’s—not bad company to be in. Atanta’s Defense is tied @ 17th (with
14 )in the NFL in INTs, while N.O. is next to last with only 8. Atlanta is 11th in the NFL in
passing yards per attempt in the last 3 games (allowing 6.1 per attempt
compared to their 18th ranked 6.8 ypa for the season). NO is ranked 16th for the season
allowing 6.6 ypa, and that has dropped to 17th allowing 7.1 in L3. Atlanta’s secondary is inferior to NO
wideouts, but the question is how much time is Brees going to have to ‘check
down’?