Fresno State at Colorado
I’m playing Colorado, as they get a big boost on the interior with Cain in the mix now, which should help Robinson become a much better offensively player as well. I’m also fading Fresno off of two really good shooting nights and a big win, something they have rarely been a part of in recent years, going into altitude against an offense that can pour points on you in a hurry. First chalk bigger than a -5 for me this year that I’ve actually invested in. Scary.
1* Colorado -9
Portland at Boise State
Boise State is probably one of the more “on-fire” teams in the country that you rarely hear about and should be noted that Leon Rice is doing it with pretty much an entirely new roster from a year ago. Portland’s just a whole new dynamic this year from past year’s when they depended solely on the three-ball. They’re coming off a STL team who rarely lets teams focus on the perimeter shot, let attempt them, so a bounce-back here probably not going to happen.
Nevada at Arizona State
Nevada off a really big home win where they actually played decent for the first time this year now hits the road a few days later, and I’m not sure what to expect. I value them higher than what they’ve played, and I like them a lot better than Arizona State, just not willing to trust them after how awful they’ve looked this year, even in their wins against lesser competition.
Lean: Nevada +6.5
Xavier at Butler
Not touching this one. Xavier completes the sweep of rival Miami OH, Georgia, at Vandy, and Purdue and now draws Butler before grabbing rival Cincy at home, Oral Roberts, Long Beach State, and Gonzaga. Oh, and Steven’s Butler squad? They just lost the Horizon opener at home to Valpo a few days ago, gets Xavier here, then goes Ball State, Purdue, Gonzaga, and Stanford before getting back into conference play. What’s it mean for tonight? Nothing really.
St. Bonaventure at Illinois
Really, at some point this awful offense I’ve been talking about with Illinois is going to prove me right, I just don’t know when that will be. I’m leaning under tonight and hoping both teams are cold from the outside. Bonnies are on game two of the road trip and the Illinois win over Gonzaga really opens up for letdown #1 of this young season. Neither team wants to get out and run and this game should be very focused on the half-court setting. Bonnies want to get it into Nicholson as he accounts for over 26% of their possessions, and the Illinois strength by far not even close, is interior defense. Which also poses another problem and that’s Leonard trying to do too much against Nicholson and getting in foul trouble early, which opens up a whole different door of the Bonnie’s possibly stealing an outright. If Leonard stays on the court, game could still be close, but I think the best look in this game is one that is going to require some good outside shooting, and some rare scoring with the way both teams will approach this game from a defensive standpoint.
Lean: St. Bonaventure/Illinois Under 128
Wright State at Air Force
Wright State won a game! They caught Youngstown State in a letdown spot after beating Detroit in the Horizon opener, so the offense looked pretty decent pouring in a stellar 63 points. This is two teams that want to slow the game dramatically, and a case of the better offense going against a decent defense and the better defense combating the decent offense. These two teams played last year and Air Force shot 61% and lost by 15. Total shot attempts in the game came in at 86, and the foul shots totaled 42. The glaring difference between this year and last is that Wright State had Duggins and Evans, who attempted over half of the Wright State shots last year. Wright State’s put an even greater emphasis on defense this year and while they have guards that can defend just as good as Duggins and Evans and create steals, they’re lacking in the finishing department. Air Force had 19 turnovers that game (they averaged 8 a game last year), clearly an indication of how well this Wright State defense is, but that also led to points. Assuming Air Force doesn’t turn it over tonight at that alarming rate, then this one has a good shot to see well under 100 shots attempted yet again, and a good chance of an under coming in.
1* Wright State/Air Force Under 120